Skip to content
The Real Rate Index50.4+0.00Palanor: Liquidity72.4-0.50Palanor: Inflation Pulse50.6-1.21Palanor: Geopolitical Stress53.2+0.03Palanor: US vs China49.4-0.23Palanor: Industrial Pulse67.5+0.00Palanor: Capital Tightness29.4+0.82Palanor: Consumer Confidence58.1+1.99Palanor: US Dollar Strength45.6-0.05Palanor: US Jobs Health44.80.00Palanor: Uncertainty Index43.9-0.25Palanor: Energy Transition41.0+0.03Palanor: Steward Confidence67.3+0.05Palanor: AI Substitution27.0-1.13Palanor: Recession Vocabulary26.1-0.91Palanor: Quit Pressure64.7-2.82Palanor: Reshoring Sentiment31.3-0.82Palanor: Geopolitical Anxiety28.2-0.99Palanor: Labor Heat70.9-0.10Cost Disease Spread33.00.00The Palanor Index35.0+0.48Rise of Socialism Index40.2-1.02The Mania Index88.60.00The Bubble Memory80.1-0.00The Long Watch90.30.00The Reshoring Index54.8+0.00The Hesitation Index30.0+0.20The Capital Return Index79.6-0.28The Discourse Index75.6-0.31Palanor AI Inference Cost Index74.3-0.08The Layoff Cycle Index35.3+0.04The AI Capex Race Index82.9-0.29The Boardroom Index87.8-0.20The Social Fabric Index44.90.00The Consumer Health Index40.6-0.13Capital Deployment Posture Index72.5-0.20Palanor: AI Margin Compression56.2+0.08Labor Hours Composite44.40.00Palanor: Risk Appetite58.4+0.42The Dollar Erosion Index67.1+0.18
PalanorPalanor

Palanor Foresight™ · Track record

Every forecast, scored in the open.

Every forecast Palanor shows on a signal is logged when it is made and scored when its date arrives. Nothing is edited after the fact. The measure is plain: was the forecast closer to what happened than simply assuming nothing would change, and did the outcome land inside the band we drew around it?

Hold-out test

The hold-out test has not been run yet.

Live

24,690 live forecasts logged. Scoring begins Oct 2, 2026.

How the ledger works

  • Logged when made. Once a week, every public signal with at least 20 observations and a recent print gets its forecasts recorded: every mode the signal page offers, exactly as it draws them, with the band and the engine version.
  • Checkpoints follow the series. Daily, weekly and monthly signals are checked at 7 and 30 days. Quarterly signals at 90 days and 1 year. Annual signals at 1 and 3 years.
  • Scored against what was published. The outcome is the observation nearest the target date, within half the series' spacing (at least three days). Nothing is interpolated. When no observation falls in that window, the forecast is voided with the reason, never scored against a guess.
  • Against no change. Every forecast is compared with the simplest alternative: the last value, carried forward. A forecast that cannot beat it more than half the time is not earning its place, and this page will say so.
  • The band is tested too. Each forecast carries a ±1σ band. If the band is honest, about 68% of outcomes land inside it. Much more means the band is too wide; much less means it is too sure.
  • Hold-out tests are labelled. Before live results accumulate, forecasts are rebuilt from each series cut at past dates, holding back its usual publication delay. They use today's revised data and today's lattice, which flatters them slightly. They are shown apart from live results and never mixed in.
  • Licensed data stays fenced. Market prices are scored with everything else, but only these aggregate shares are published.

Engine version 2026-09-26.5 · refreshed every 6 hours

Forecasts are statistical projections, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. Past and hold-out results do not guarantee future accuracy. See the Forecast disclosures.