Continuation
43%
beat no-change
71%
in band · target 68%
126,788 forecasts
Palanor Foresight™ · Track record
Every forecast, scored in the open.
Every forecast Palanor shows on a signal is logged when it is made and scored when its date arrives. Nothing is edited after the fact. The measure is plain: was the forecast closer to what happened than simply assuming nothing would change, and did the outcome land inside the band we drew around it?
Hold-out test
250,246 forecasts across 1,718 signals, rebuilt from history cut at past dates. They use today's revised data and today's lattice, so they read a little kinder than live results will.
Palanor Foresight™
51%
beat no-change
70%
in band · target 68%
123,458 forecasts
Live
554 live forecasts scored so far, logged as they were shown. Continuation: 32% beat no-change. Palanor Foresight™: 44% beat no-change.
| Cadence | Checkpoint | Mode | Forecasts | Signals | Beat no-change | In band | Median error | No-change error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| daily | 7 days | Continuation | 250 | 250 | 30% | 83% | 1.41 | 0.89 |
| daily | 7 days | Palanor Foresight™ | 165 | 165 | 48% | 70% | 1.10 | 1.14 |
| weekly | 7 days | Continuation | 72 | 72 | 38% | 69% | 0.55 | 0.44 |
| weekly | 7 days | Palanor Foresight™ | 67 | 67 | 36% | 76% | 0.64 | 0.61 |
Hold-out test, in detail
By cadence and checkpoint. Errors are scaled by each series' typical step, so signals of different sizes can be compared; lower is better.
| Cadence | Checkpoint | Mode | Forecasts | Signals | Beat no-change | In band | Median error | No-change error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| daily | 7 days | Continuation | 37,890 | 1,545 | 41% | 74% | 2.05 | 1.93 |
| daily | 7 days | Palanor Foresight™ | 36,446 | 1,487 | 47% | 72% | 1.96 | 1.96 |
| daily | 30 days | Continuation | 33,247 | 1,541 | 43% | 73% | 3.82 | 3.69 |
| daily | 30 days | Palanor Foresight™ | 32,193 | 1,482 | 48% | 63% | 3.70 | 3.72 |
| weekly | 7 days | Continuation | 11,899 | 465 | 40% | 79% | 0.95 | 0.91 |
| weekly | 7 days | Palanor Foresight™ | 11,732 | 458 | 47% | 74% | 0.92 | 0.92 |
| weekly | 30 days | Continuation | 10,518 | 464 | 39% | 80% | 1.49 | 1.41 |
| weekly | 30 days | Palanor Foresight™ | 10,368 | 457 | 51% | 68% | 1.41 | 1.42 |
| monthly | 7 days | Continuation | 6,210 | 321 | 48% | 63% | 1.18 | 1.25 |
| monthly | 7 days | Palanor Foresight™ | 6,209 | 321 | 59% | 74% | 1.12 | 1.25 |
| monthly | 30 days | Continuation | 5,366 | 321 | 48% | 64% | 1.34 | 1.40 |
| monthly | 30 days | Palanor Foresight™ | 5,365 | 321 | 60% | 73% | 1.28 | 1.40 |
| quarterly | 90 days | Continuation | 1,527 | 127 | 53% | 62% | 1.66 | 1.91 |
| quarterly | 90 days | Palanor Foresight™ | 1,512 | 126 | 54% | 79% | 1.67 | 1.92 |
| quarterly | 1 year | Continuation | 1,207 | 123 | 54% | 56% | 2.81 | 2.86 |
| quarterly | 1 year | Palanor Foresight™ | 1,195 | 122 | 55% | 72% | 2.73 | 2.85 |
| annual | 1 year | Continuation | 15,673 | 1,718 | 46% | 59% | 1.41 | 1.44 |
| annual | 1 year | Palanor Foresight™ | 15,193 | 1,657 | 59% | 73% | 1.33 | 1.45 |
| annual | 3 years | Continuation | 3,251 | 1,170 | 46% | 54% | 2.16 | 1.99 |
| annual | 3 years | Palanor Foresight™ | 3,245 | 1,168 | 60% | 67% | 1.73 | 1.99 |
How the ledger works
- Logged when made. Once a week, every public signal with at least 20 observations and a recent print gets its forecasts recorded: every mode the signal page offers, exactly as it draws them, with the band and the engine version.
- Checkpoints follow the series. Daily, weekly and monthly signals are checked at 7 and 30 days. Quarterly signals at 90 days and 1 year. Annual signals at 1 and 3 years.
- Scored against what was published. The outcome is the observation nearest the target date, within half the series' spacing (at least three days). Nothing is interpolated. When no observation falls in that window, the forecast is voided with the reason, never scored against a guess.
- Against no change. Every forecast is compared with the simplest alternative: the last value, carried forward. A forecast that cannot beat it more than half the time is not earning its place, and this page will say so.
- The band is tested too. Each forecast carries a ±1σ band. If the band is honest, about 68% of outcomes land inside it. Much more means the band is too wide; much less means it is too sure.
- Hold-out tests are labelled. Before live results accumulate, forecasts are rebuilt from each series cut at past dates, holding back its usual publication delay. They use today's revised data and today's lattice, which flatters them slightly. They are shown apart from live results and never mixed in.
- Licensed data stays fenced. Market prices are scored with everything else, but only these aggregate shares are published.
Engine version 2026-09-26.5 · refreshed every 6 hours
Forecasts are statistical projections, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. Past and hold-out results do not guarantee future accuracy. See the Forecast disclosures.