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Palanor: Liquidity74.3-0.18Palanor: Geopolitical Stress76.1+0.91Palanor: Risk Appetite44.4-0.96Palanor: Inflation Pulse54.3-0.27Palanor: Industrial Pulse73.50.00Palanor: Capital Tightness24.4+0.27Palanor: Consumer Confidence50.4+1.60Palanor: US Dollar Strength55.70.00Palanor: US Jobs Health29.4-0.78Palanor: Uncertainty Index65.3+4.34Palanor: Steward Confidence69.3-1.43Palanor: Energy Transition47.20.00Palanor: US vs China52.90.00Palanor: Sino Domestic Fragility66.90.00Palanor: AI Substitution35.7-0.93Palanor: Recession Vocabulary36.3+0.04Palanor: Quit Pressure66.8+5.39Palanor: Reshoring Sentiment27.5+0.68Palanor: Geopolitical Anxiety24.2-0.03The Palanor Index46.7+2.05Palanor: Labor Heat59.1-1.35Rise of Socialism Index41.8-0.15Palanor AI Inference Cost Index50.00.00Labor Hours Composite41.00.00Cost Disease Spread47.20.00The Mania Index88.80.00The Boardroom Index64.5-0.01The Layoff Cycle Index59.4-0.09The AI Capex Race Index73.4+0.09The Bubble Memory68.00.00The Real Rate Index72.00.00The Long Watch77.70.00The Dollar Erosion Index56.30.00The Reshoring Index51.40.00The Capital Return Index85.8-1.10The Discourse Index78.8+0.25The Hesitation Index31.7-0.59Capital Deployment Posture Index82.6-0.10Palanor: AI Margin Compression54.4+1.08
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Track Record

We don’t just show our work. We grade it.

Every claim on this page was stated with a probability, a deadline, and resolution criteria written at the moment of the claim. When the deadline passes, the claim is resolved — hit, miss, partial, or void — and scored. Claims are never edited and never quietly removed. The misses stay on the page, with honest notes. The research industry does not keep score in public. Palanor does.

House Brier

—

0 = perfect · 0.25 = coin-flip

On the record

8

open claims

Resolved

0

0 hits

Voided

0

published, not hidden

On the record now

Live claims awaiting their deadline. Judge us later — the criteria are already fixed.

Stated Jun 10, 2026 · resolves by Oct 7, 2026

p = 72%

The Palanor Capital Tightness Index finishes Q3 2026 below 40 — capital conditions stay loose through the quarter.

Resolves: Resolves HIT if the final palanor_index_readings value for palanor_capital_tightness computed in September 2026 is below 40.0; MISS otherwise. (Reading on 2026-06-10: 23.7.)

Stated Jun 10, 2026 · resolves by Dec 20, 2026

p = 75%

Hyperscaler AI infrastructure capex keeps climbing: the Q3 2026 aggregate of AI.CAPEX.HYPERSCALERS exceeds the Q2 2026 aggregate.

Resolves: Resolves HIT if the AI.CAPEX.HYPERSCALERS composite observation for the 2026-09-30 quarter, once all component earnings are reported and the refresh script runs, is greater than the 2026-06-30 quarter's value; MISS otherwise. Resolution waits for full component reporting (~mid-December 2026).

Stated Jun 10, 2026 · resolves by Jan 7, 2027

p = 60%

The AI margin squeeze deepens: the Palanor AI Margin Compression Index closes above 60 on at least one day before year-end 2026.

Resolves: Resolves HIT if any palanor_index_readings value for palanor_ai_margin_compression on or before 2026-12-31 is at or above 60.0; MISS otherwise. (Reading on 2026-06-10: 54.1, momentum accelerating.)

Stated Jun 10, 2026 · resolves by Jan 7, 2027

p = 55%

Geopolitical stress mean-reverts at least once: the Palanor Geopolitical Stress Index closes below 60 on some day before year-end 2026.

Resolves: Resolves HIT if any palanor_index_readings value for palanor_geopolitical_stress on or before 2026-12-31 is at or below 60.0; MISS otherwise. (Reading on 2026-06-10: 75.5.)

Stated Jun 10, 2026 · resolves by Jan 10, 2027

p = 62%

Remilitarization keeps paying the challengers: the Defense Tech Basket (DEF.TECH) outperforms the S&P 500 over H2 2026.

Resolves: Resolves HIT if DEF.TECH's percentage change from its last June 2026 observation to its last December 2026 observation exceeds the S&P 500's (eq-spy or ^GSPC) over the same endpoints; MISS otherwise.

Stated Jun 10, 2026 · resolves by Jan 15, 2027

p = 65%

The capital window stays open: US IPO count in H2 2026 exceeds the H1 2026 count.

Resolves: Resolves HIT if the number of US IPO pricings July–December 2026 exceeds January–June 2026, per StockAnalysis.com's IPO statistics (Renaissance Capital tally as fallback); MISS otherwise. (Capital Window current: momentum accelerating, belief 0.74 on 2026-06-10.)

Stated Jun 10, 2026 · resolves by Jan 20, 2027

p = 60%

Disinflation grinds on: US headline CPI prints a year-over-year reading below 3.0% for at least one month between July and December 2026.

Resolves: Resolves HIT if any BLS CPI-U headline YoY print for reference months July–December 2026 is below 3.0%; MISS otherwise. (Palanor Inflation Pulse on 2026-06-10: 56.4.)

Stated Jun 10, 2026 · resolves by Apr 20, 2027

p = 70%

Return-to-office momentum keeps fading: the share of US paid full days worked from home does not fall below its mid-2026 level by Q1 2027.

Resolves: Resolves HIT if the SWAA (WFH Research, Barrero-Bloom-Davis) monthly estimate of paid full days worked from home for March 2027 is at or above its June 2026 estimate minus 1.0 percentage point; MISS if it has fallen by more than 1.0pp. VOID if SWAA stops publishing.

The rules of the ledger

  • Criteria first. Every claim carries resolution criteria written at the moment of the claim — never afterward.
  • No edits. A claim is never reworded, re-probabilitied, or re-deadlined. A badly-formed claim is voided, in public.
  • Voids are published. Voided claims stay on the page and are counted above. They carry no score, but they are never hidden.
  • Misses get honest notes. When we are wrong, the post-mortem says what the lattice missed.
  • Brier scoring. Each resolved claim scores (p − outcome)², where hit = 1, miss = 0, partial = 0.5. Lower is better; 0.25 is what a permanent coin-flipper earns. The house score is the mean across all scored claims.

“Methodology is the moat — and a methodology that never faces its own record is a brochure.”