Sentiment
The Palanor Index
A weekly reading on how confidently the future is being priced. The gap between belief and uncertainty across forward-looking instruments.
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Consumer
Palanor: Consumer Confidence
A composite read of the American consumer — sentiment, credit stress, and search anxiety, blended into a single 0–100 series.
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Liquidity
Palanor: Liquidity
A composite read of global dollar liquidity — the financial weather every asset class trades inside of.
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A composite read of how hot the labor market is running — openings, employment cycle, wages, and search intent.
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Inflation
Palanor: Inflation Pulse
A composite read of inflation pressure relative to the 2% target — sticky prices, breakevens, nowcasts, and search intent.
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Risk
Palanor: Risk Appetite
A composite read of market risk appetite — vol, spreads, sentiment, equity momentum, and safe-haven flows.
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Geopolitical
Palanor: Geopolitical Stress
A composite read of market-priced geopolitical stress — oils, gold, dollar, vol, defense production, and natural gas. High = high stress.
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capital
Capital Deployment Posture Index
Growth mode vs defensive mode. The ratio of AI/capex mention frequency to buyback mention frequency, sentiment-weighted — measuring how the corpus is deploying capital, in one number 0–100.
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The spread between US services that get structurally more expensive (hospitals, college tuition, child care, housing, medical care) and US goods that get structurally cheaper (televisions, wireless service, toys, computers, household furnishings). Up = cost disease accelerating. Down = goods catching up. The Baumol story, indexed across ten BLS CPI subindices.
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Labor
Labor Hours Composite
Where the developed world stands on the labor-intensity spectrum. Reads PWT average annual hours worked per worker across ten major economies — G7 plus Korea, Mexico, and Australia — weighted by workforce share. Rises when the cluster trends toward more hours; falls when the cluster trends toward fewer.
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AI
Palanor AI Inference Cost Index
What it costs to buy a fixed level of machine intelligence, over time. Tracks the cheapest blended price per million tokens at which any commercially available model clears Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index thresholds of 30, 40, and 50. Higher readings mean capability has become cheaper.
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Sentiment
Palanor: AI Margin Compression
The macro thesis tracked as a number — software margins under pressure as the cost of intelligence falls. v2: now incorporates quarterly hyperscaler AI capex from 10-Q filings.
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sector
Palanor: AI Substitution
How fast the open-weight, local, and substitution-coded slice of AI tooling is taking attention from the proprietary leaders.
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Liquidity
Palanor: Capital Tightness
How tight or loose the capital window is for the operator who needs to refinance, raise, or close a deal in the next twelve months.
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Commodity
Palanor: Energy Transition
The pace at which the energy stack is shifting under the economy. Higher reading, faster shift.
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Geopolitical
Palanor: Geopolitical Anxiety
Worldwide search attention on the named flashpoints that are most likely to move markets.
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Macro
Palanor: Industrial Pulse
The real economy operating heat — manufacturing, services, freight, production. The number a CFO carries into the room.
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Labor
Palanor: Quit Pressure
How seriously workers are looking at the door — search behavior version of the JOLTS quits rate, weekly instead of monthly.
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Sentiment
Palanor: Recession Vocabulary
How loudly households + small operators are typing the words that show up during downturns.
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sector
Palanor: Reshoring Sentiment
The attention to industrial-policy reshoring and the critical-minerals constraint that underwrites it.
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Geopolitical
Palanor: Sino Domestic Fragility
A composite read on the gap between China's projected strength and the leading domestic indicators of its capacity to sustain it. Five components: youth unemployment, demographic drag, housing oversupply, sanctioned-oil dependence, and Belt-and-Road default count.
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Sentiment
Palanor: Steward Confidence
A meta-composite tuned to long-horizon operators — how confident the people who carry generational responsibility should reasonably feel about the next twelve months.
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Risk
Palanor: Uncertainty Index
Cross-asset uncertainty — how unsure markets are about the next 12 months.
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FX
Palanor: US Dollar Strength
The dollar against its principal counterparties — broad strength, weighted by trade and capital significance.
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Macro
Palanor: US Jobs Health
Three things tell the labor story — who is hiring, who is quitting, and what they are paid.
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Macro
Palanor: US vs China
The relative position of the two largest economies — measured across output, currency, military, and trade partner dominance.
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Political Economy
Rise of Socialism Index
A z-scored composite of eight Google Trends + organized-membership signals tracking how close socialist-adjacent thinking sits to mainstream electoral viability in the United States.
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Macro
The AI Capex Race Index
How committed are companies to the AI build-out. Composite of AI intensity in earnings calls + capex guidance direction + leader confidence.
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What management is actually saying. Composite of cross-cohort sentiment, confidence, and revenue guidance — extracted from every earnings transcript Palanor reads.
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valuation
The Bubble Memory
Who is in the pool. A composite of margin debt, dividend yield (inverted), and household equity ownership — the participation side of the bubble watch.
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Macro
The Capital Return Index
How much capital is being returned to shareholders. Composite of buyback mentions + revenue guidance + leader confidence — read from earnings transcripts.
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discourse
The Discourse Index
Where the room is right now. The four-axis composite of how the most-recent quarterly earnings calls across the scored universe sound — sentiment + confidence + bull-bear balance + revision pressure, in one number 0–100.
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Macro
The Dollar Erosion Index
The long arc of fiat. When the dollar weakens against hard assets, monetary base, and real returns. Decades, not quarters.
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What worried sounds like. A composite of layoff + recession mention frequency, confidence dispersion, and the inverse of buyback mention frequency — measuring how defensive the boardroom is, in one number 0–100.
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Macro
The Layoff Cycle Index
When the cycle starts breaking. Composite of cohort layoff heat + recession talk + margin guidance direction inverted — early-warning read from what management is saying.
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The multi-decade lens. Real S&P deviation from 30Y trend + real Fed funds (inverted) + Buffett Indicator. The arc, not the cycle.
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When the watch gets hot. A composite read of US stock-market valuation, percentile-ranked against its own history. Current reading near all-time peak.
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The price of patience. Real Fed funds rate percentile against full available history — high = capital is expensive, low = capital is cheap.
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Is the reshoring story actually working? Composite of US manufacturing jobs, freight movement, and dollar competitiveness. Low = the narrative outruns the data. High = the data catches up.
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