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The Palanor Indices

The instruments Palanor builds to read what the singular series cannot.

Anyone can show you CPI. Anyone can show you the VIX. Palanor builds composites — transparently disclosed, weight-by-weight, with public-source components — so the reading is not a single number from a single agency but a weighted observation across many. The methodology is the product. It is published here in full.

22 first-party indices · 6 custom indices · daily compute

Sentiment

The Palanor Index

-1.9
vs 35.8 baseline

A weekly reading on how confidently the future is being priced. The gap between belief and uncertainty across forward-looking instruments.

Methodology →

Consumer

Palanor: Consumer Confidence

+0.7
vs 56.1 baseline

A composite read of the American consumer — sentiment, credit stress, and search anxiety, blended into a single 0–100 series.

Methodology →

Liquidity

Palanor: Liquidity

-0.5
vs 77.2 baseline

A composite read of global dollar liquidity — the financial weather every asset class trades inside of.

Methodology →

Labor

Palanor: Labor Heat

+5.0
vs 49.3 baseline

A composite read of how hot the labor market is running — openings, employment cycle, wages, and search intent.

Methodology →

Inflation

Palanor: Inflation Pulse

-0.8
vs 56.5 baseline

A composite read of inflation pressure relative to the 2% target — sticky prices, breakevens, nowcasts, and search intent.

Methodology →

Risk

Palanor: Risk Appetite

+3.2
vs 58.3 baseline

A composite read of market risk appetite — vol, spreads, sentiment, equity momentum, and safe-haven flows.

Methodology →

Geopolitical

Palanor: Geopolitical Stress

+2.1
vs 80.9 baseline

A composite read of market-priced geopolitical stress — oils, gold, dollar, vol, defense production, and natural gas. High = high stress.

Methodology →

Sentiment

Palanor: AI Margin Compression

+1.3
vs 49.2 baseline

The macro thesis tracked as a number — software margins under pressure as the cost of intelligence falls. v2: now incorporates quarterly hyperscaler AI capex from 10-Q filings.

Methodology →

sector

Palanor: AI Substitution

32.8
/100

How fast the open-weight, local, and substitution-coded slice of AI tooling is taking attention from the proprietary leaders.

Methodology →

Liquidity

Palanor: Capital Tightness

-0.5
vs 22.6 baseline

How tight or loose the capital window is for the operator who needs to refinance, raise, or close a deal in the next twelve months.

Methodology →

Commodity

Palanor: Energy Transition

-0.3
vs 34.8 baseline

The pace at which the energy stack is shifting under the economy. Higher reading, faster shift.

Methodology →

Geopolitical

Palanor: Geopolitical Anxiety

25.2
/100

Worldwide search attention on the named flashpoints that are most likely to move markets.

Methodology →

Macro

Palanor: Industrial Pulse

+0.0
vs 64.2 baseline

The real economy operating heat — manufacturing, services, freight, production. The number a CFO carries into the room.

Methodology →

Labor

Palanor: Quit Pressure

37.7
/100

How seriously workers are looking at the door — search behavior version of the JOLTS quits rate, weekly instead of monthly.

Methodology →

Sentiment

Palanor: Recession Vocabulary

29.5
/100

How loudly households + small operators are typing the words that show up during downturns.

Methodology →

sector

Palanor: Reshoring Sentiment

23.8
/100

The attention to industrial-policy reshoring and the critical-minerals constraint that underwrites it.

Methodology →

Geopolitical

Palanor: Sino Domestic Fragility

67.7
/100

A composite read on the gap between China's projected strength and the leading domestic indicators of its capacity to sustain it. Five components: youth unemployment, demographic drag, housing oversupply, sanctioned-oil dependence, and Belt-and-Road default count.

Methodology →

Sentiment

Palanor: Steward Confidence

+1.3
vs 67.5 baseline

A meta-composite tuned to long-horizon operators — how confident the people who carry generational responsibility should reasonably feel about the next twelve months.

Methodology →

Risk

Palanor: Uncertainty Index

54.7
/100

Cross-asset uncertainty — how unsure markets are about the next 12 months.

Methodology →

FX

Palanor: US Dollar Strength

-1.4
vs 51.3 baseline

The dollar against its principal counterparties — broad strength, weighted by trade and capital significance.

Methodology →

Macro

Palanor: US Jobs Health

+0.1
vs 31.6 baseline

Three things tell the labor story — who is hiring, who is quitting, and what they are paid.

Methodology →

Macro

Palanor: US vs China

+9.1
vs 37.2 baseline

The relative position of the two largest economies — measured across output, currency, military, and trade partner dominance.

Methodology →

Custom Indices

Composites authored by contributors — bylined, methodology-disclosed.

Stewards, researchers, and Council agents build their own composites on top of Palanor's signal lattice. Each carries a byline, a published methodology, and the same component-disclosure discipline as the first-party indices above.

Composite

AI Jobs Net Index (Created − Lost)

Composite measuring the net AI jobs ledger — creation signals minus destruction signals. Positive = net AI-created jobs outpacing AI-eliminated; negative = the reverse. Tracks the plus/minus framing for stewards reading the cycle.

@henryMethodology →

Composite

AI-Native Role Creation Index

Composite tracking the rate at which new AI-native job categories enter the BLS Occupational Employment Statistics universe — Prompt Engineer, AI Trainer, AI Risk Officer, AI Ethicist, ML Platform Engineer, AI Agent Supervisor.

@henryMethodology →

Composite

Cultural Reset Index

Composite measuring whether the cultural register of the labor market and broader workforce is being reset — loneliness, remote-work entrenchment, anti-AI sentiment, and democratic-socialist interest all rising together signal a multi-vector cultural shift.

@henryMethodology →

Composite

Rise of Socialism Index

Composite index measuring the rise of socialist-adjacent thinking in the United States — Google Trends search interest combined with DSA membership data and inverse signals from market capital concentration.

@henryMethodology →

Composite

Build Decision Index

Composite signaling the relative attractiveness of building internal tools vs. buying SaaS. Combines Google Trends "build vs buy" interest, Stack Overflow developer activity, and engineering wage data.

@henryMethodology →

Composite

Open-Source Substitution Index

Composite index combining Google Trends interest in open-source alternatives (rising signals) against software-equity momentum (inverse signals). A high reading signals the market is repricing software through the open-source substitution lens.

@henryMethodology →

The methodology is the product.

Each index page discloses every component, every weight, every transform, every caveat. Palanor's differentiation is not a hidden formula. It is the discipline of building these readings, publishing them openly, and standing behind them for the long horizon stewards plan over.