Palanor: Uncertainty Index

What this index reads

Uncertainty is the gap between what markets know and what they need to price. The Uncertainty Index composites six surfaces where uncertainty leaves a fingerprint: equity volatility (VIX), credit-spread expansion, safe-haven currency demand, gold flows, yield-curve disagreement, and household sentiment. High values = markets are unsure; low values = consensus is firm.

Why baseline-relative matters

A raw VIX of 18 means nothing without context. 18 is elevated in a calm cycle and complacent in a stressed one. Palanor reads every index against its 5-year historic baseline. The headline you see — +12 above baseline, −8 below — carries the judgment context the absolute number suppresses.

How to read movement

Watch acceleration as much as level. The Uncertainty Index rising 5 points in two weeks is a regime-tilt signal even if the absolute reading sits near baseline. Decreasing uncertainty during otherwise stable markets is itself information — it tells you what stewards believe, before it tells you what is true.

Components & Weights

Every component, every weight. The 30-day spark shows how the underlying series has moved; the transform column shows how it converts to a comparable scale before weighting. Direction indicates whether rising values raise or lower the index.

Historical

24-month history of this index. The composite is recomputed daily; values are stored with timestamps.

References

• FRED — Federal Reserve Economic Data, St. Louis Fed. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/
• Atlanta Fed — Wage Growth Tracker and Sticky-Price CPI. https://www.atlantafed.org/research
• Cleveland Fed — Model-based inflation expectations. https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-research/indicators-and-data
• OECD — Composite Consumer Confidence Indicator. https://data.oecd.org/leadind/consumer-confidence-index-cci.htm
• CNN Business — Fear & Greed Index. https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed
• Google Trends — interest over time. https://trends.google.com/