The Palanor Indices
The instruments Palanor builds to read what the singular series cannot.
Anyone can show you CPI. Anyone can show you the VIX. Palanor builds composites — transparently disclosed, weight-by-weight, with public-source components.
The Palanor Indices
Anyone can show you CPI. Anyone can show you the VIX. Palanor builds composites — transparently disclosed, weight-by-weight, with public-source components.
Cross-asset uncertainty — how unsure markets are about the next 12 months.
Uncertainty is the gap between what markets know and what they need to price. The Uncertainty Index composites six surfaces where uncertainty leaves a fingerprint: equity volatility (VIX), credit-spread expansion, safe-haven currency demand, gold flows, yield-curve disagreement, and household sentiment. High values = markets are unsure; low values = consensus is firm.
A raw VIX of 18 means nothing without context. 18 is elevated in a calm cycle and complacent in a stressed one. Palanor reads every index against its 5-year historic baseline. The headline you see — +12 above baseline, −8 below — carries the judgment context the absolute number suppresses.
Watch acceleration as much as level. The Uncertainty Index rising 5 points in two weeks is a regime-tilt signal even if the absolute reading sits near baseline. Decreasing uncertainty during otherwise stable markets is itself information — it tells you what stewards believe, before it tells you what is true.
Every component, every weight. The 30-day spark shows how the underlying series has moved; the transform column shows how it converts to a comparable scale before weighting. Direction indicates whether rising values raise or lower the index.
| Component | Source | Weight | Direction | Transform | 30d | 24h | 30d Δ | Now contributing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | FRED | 30% | positive | zscore_24m | ▼ 1.06 | ▼ 3.60 | -0.104 | |
| Baa Corporate Bond Yield Spread (10y) | FRED | 20% | positive | zscore_24m |
Numen for the public read:
Palanor reads uncertainty at 56.7 of 100 — modestly above its 24-month neutral. The composite is steady, with the weight of components leaning in one direction.
24-month history of this index. The composite is recomputed daily; values are stored with timestamps.
Y-axis auto-zoomed · data clusters tightly
| # | Computed at | Value | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | 7/11/2026, 8:45:36 AM | 56.6740 | -0.8585 |
| 63 | 7/10/2026, 8:45:14 AM | 57.5325 | +0.7029 |
| 62 | 7/9/2026, 8:45:54 AM | 56.8296 | +1.5256 |
| 61 | 7/8/2026, 8:45:54 AM | 55.3039 | -0.7195 |
| 60 | 7/7/2026, 8:45:54 AM | 56.0234 | -1.5523 |
| 59 | 7/6/2026, 8:45:55 AM | 57.5758 | 0.0000 |
| 58 | 7/5/2026, 8:45:54 AM | 57.5758 | 0.0000 |
| 57 | 7/4/2026, 8:45:55 AM | 57.5758 | 0.0000 |
| 56 | 7/3/2026, 8:45:55 AM | 57.5758 | -0.6451 |
| 55 | 7/2/2026, 8:45:54 AM | 58.2209 | -3.0323 |
| 54 | 7/1/2026, 8:45:36 AM | 61.2532 | -2.2813 |
| 53 | 6/30/2026, 8:45:36 AM | 63.5344 | +1.2134 |
| 52 | 6/29/2026, 8:45:51 AM | 62.3210 | 0.0000 |
| 51 | 6/28/2026, 8:45:52 AM | 62.3210 | 0.0000 |
| 50 | 6/27/2026, 8:45:51 AM | 62.3210 | +1.8349 |
| 49 | 6/26/2026, 8:45:51 AM | 60.4861 | -1.5281 |
| 48 | 6/25/2026, 8:45:29 AM | 62.0142 | +4.5067 |
| 47 | 6/24/2026, 8:45:30 AM | 57.5075 | -1.8949 |
| 46 | 6/23/2026, 8:45:05 AM | 59.4023 | -1.2328 |
| 45 | 6/22/2026, 8:45:07 AM | 60.6352 | 0.0000 |
| 44 | 6/21/2026, 8:45:08 AM | 60.6352 | 0.0000 |
| 43 | 6/20/2026, 8:45:14 AM | 60.6352 | 0.0000 |
| 42 | 6/19/2026, 8:45:14 AM | 60.6352 | +1.3617 |
| 41 | 6/18/2026, 8:45:34 AM | 59.2735 | +3.5119 |
| 40 | 6/17/2026, 8:45:24 AM | 55.7616 | -1.5099 |
| 39 | 6/16/2026, 8:45:10 AM | 57.2715 | -4.8362 |
| 38 | 6/15/2026, 8:45:11 AM | 62.1077 | 0.0000 |
| 37 | 6/14/2026, 8:45:42 AM | 62.1077 | 0.0000 |
| 36 | 6/13/2026, 8:45:09 AM | 62.1077 | -3.2064 |
| 35 | 6/12/2026, 8:45:19 AM | 65.3141 | +4.3381 |
| 34 | 6/11/2026, 8:45:23 AM | 60.9759 | +0.6058 |
| 33 | 6/10/2026, 8:45:40 AM | 60.3702 | -3.3177 |
| 32 | 6/9/2026, 8:45:53 AM | 63.6878 | -1.4712 |
| 31 | 6/8/2026, 10:53:05 PM | 65.1590 | +9.3777 |
| 30 | 6/8/2026, 8:45:35 AM | 55.7813 | 0.0000 |
| 29 | 6/7/2026, 8:45:30 AM | 55.7813 | 0.0000 |
| 28 | 6/6/2026, 8:45:30 AM | 55.7813 | +0.7800 |
| 27 | 6/5/2026, 8:45:52 AM | 55.0013 | -0.5436 |
| 26 | 6/4/2026, 7:12:11 PM | 55.5449 | 0.0000 |
| 25 | 6/4/2026, 4:21:22 PM | 55.5449 | 0.0000 |
| 24 | 6/4/2026, 4:20:32 PM | 55.5449 | 0.0000 |
| 23 | 6/4/2026, 4:20:03 PM | 55.5449 | 0.0000 |
| 22 | 6/4/2026, 8:45:40 AM | 55.5449 | -1.0095 |
| 21 | 6/3/2026, 8:45:14 AM | 56.5545 | -0.5837 |
| 20 | 6/2/2026, 8:45:31 AM | 57.1382 | +2.0741 |
| 19 | 6/2/2026, 3:48:33 AM | 55.0641 | 0.0000 |
| 18 | 6/2/2026, 3:13:26 AM | 55.0641 | 0.0000 |
| 17 | 6/2/2026, 3:02:29 AM | 55.0641 | 0.0000 |
| 16 | 6/2/2026, 3:00:50 AM | 55.0641 | 0.0000 |
| 15 | 6/1/2026, 8:45:46 AM | 55.0641 | +0.0025 |
| 14 | 5/31/2026, 8:45:34 AM | 55.0616 | 0.0000 |
| 13 | 5/30/2026, 8:45:27 AM | 55.0616 | 0.0000 |
| 12 | 5/30/2026, 5:04:20 AM | 55.0616 | 0.0000 |
| 11 | 5/30/2026, 4:55:35 AM | 55.0616 | -0.8704 |
| 10 | 5/30/2026, 4:12:35 AM | 55.9319 | 0.0000 |
| 9 | 5/30/2026, 4:12:19 AM | 55.9319 | 0.0000 |
| 8 | 5/29/2026, 8:45:28 AM | 55.9319 | +0.8222 |
| 7 | 5/29/2026, 4:58:25 AM | 55.1097 | 0.0000 |
| 6 | 5/28/2026, 8:45:13 AM | 55.1097 | +0.4007 |
| 5 | 5/27/2026, 8:45:50 AM | 54.7090 | -5.5350 |
| 4 | 5/26/2026, 8:45:26 AM | 60.2440 | 0.0000 |
| 3 | 5/26/2026, 6:48:31 AM | 60.2440 | 0.0000 |
| 2 | 5/26/2026, 6:48:27 AM | 60.2440 | 0.0000 |
| 1 | 5/26/2026, 3:54:59 AM | 60.2440 | — |
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/https://www.atlantafed.org/researchhttps://www.clevelandfed.org/our-research/indicators-and-datahttps://data.oecd.org/leadind/consumer-confidence-index-cci.htmhttps://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greedhttps://trends.google.com/Stewards see Palanor Indices tuned to their mandate.
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| 0.00 |
| ▲ 0.010 |
| -0.111 |
| Trade-Weighted Dollar Index | FRED | 15% | positive | zscore_24m | ▼ 0.455 | ▲ 0.573 | -0.069 |
| Gold (Export Price Index, monthly) | FRED | 15% | positive | zscore_24m | — | — | — | +0.250 |
| 10Y-2Y Yield Curve Spread | FRED | 10% | negative | zscore_24m | ▼ 0.030 | ▼ 0.050 | +0.111 |
| UMich Consumer Sentiment | FRED | 10% | negative | zscore_24m | — | — | — | +0.191 |