The Palanor Indices
The instruments Palanor builds to read what the singular series cannot.
Anyone can show you CPI. Anyone can show you the VIX. Palanor builds composites — transparently disclosed, weight-by-weight, with public-source components.
The Palanor Indices
Anyone can show you CPI. Anyone can show you the VIX. Palanor builds composites — transparently disclosed, weight-by-weight, with public-source components.
Who is in the pool. A composite of margin debt, dividend yield (inverted), and household equity ownership — the participation side of the bubble watch.
The Bubble Memory is the average historical-percentile rank of three crowd-and-leverage indicators: NYSE/FINRA margin debt (dollar terms), S&P 500 dividend yield (inverted — low yield = high mania), and household equity ownership as percent of household financial assets. When all three sit near all-time highs, the index reads near 100. When they sit near long-run norms, near 50.
Mania measures the multiple. Bubble Memory measures who is in the pool.
Margin debt is the cleanest single read on whether the crowd is leveraged. Dividend yield (inverted) captures the implied participation premium — investors only accept low yields when they believe price appreciation will compensate. Household equity ownership share is the slow-moving bedrock — when over half of household financial assets sit in equities, the buying pool is structurally exhausted. Together they answer: who is already in, and how levered?
The Bubble Memory is designed as the sister index to the Mania Index. Mania measures the multiple — price relative to earnings and economic substance. Bubble Memory measures participation — leverage and crowd composition. The 2000 dot-com peak read high on both. The 2007 GFC peak read moderately high on Mania but very high on Bubble Memory (margin debt and household equity ownership were extreme). The current reading: both running hot.
Participation can stay elevated for years. The 1990s ran with high household equity ownership for nearly a decade. This index, like Mania, tells you the conditions for a re-rating exist, not when. The discipline is to read it against Mania and against the Real Rate Index to triangulate where the cycle stands.
Every component, every weight. The 30-day spark shows how the underlying series has moved; the transform column shows how it converts to a comparable scale before weighting. Direction indicates whether rising values raise or lower the index.
| Component | Source | Weight | Direction | Transform | 30d | 24h | 30d Δ | Now contributing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYSE/FINRA Margin Debt | Finra | 40% | positive | zscore_24m | — | — | — | +0.069 |
| S&P 500 Dividend Yield | Shiller | 30% | negative | zscore_24m | — | — | — | +0.282 |
| Household Equity Ownership % |
Numen for the public read:
Palanor reads bubble memory at 68.4 of 100 — modestly above its 24-month neutral. The composite is steady, with the weight of components leaning in one direction.
24-month history of this index. The composite is recomputed daily; values are stored with timestamps.
| # | Computed at | Value | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 7/11/2026, 8:45:41 AM | 68.4206 | 0.0000 |
| 49 | 7/10/2026, 8:45:19 AM | 68.4206 | 0.0000 |
| 48 | 7/9/2026, 8:45:59 AM | 68.4206 | 0.0000 |
| 47 | 7/8/2026, 8:45:59 AM | 68.4206 | 0.0000 |
| 46 | 7/7/2026, 8:45:59 AM | 68.4206 | 0.0000 |
| 45 | 7/6/2026, 8:45:59 AM | 68.4206 | +0.3707 |
| 44 | 7/5/2026, 8:45:59 AM | 68.0499 | 0.0000 |
| 43 | 7/4/2026, 8:45:59 AM | 68.0499 | 0.0000 |
| 42 | 7/3/2026, 8:46:00 AM | 68.0499 | 0.0000 |
| 41 | 7/2/2026, 8:45:59 AM | 68.0499 | 0.0000 |
| 40 | 7/1/2026, 8:45:40 AM | 68.0499 | 0.0000 |
| 39 | 6/30/2026, 8:45:42 AM | 68.0499 | 0.0000 |
| 38 | 6/29/2026, 8:45:56 AM | 68.0499 | 0.0000 |
| 37 | 6/28/2026, 8:45:57 AM | 68.0499 | 0.0000 |
| 36 | 6/27/2026, 8:45:55 AM | 68.0499 | 0.0000 |
| 35 | 6/26/2026, 8:45:56 AM | 68.0499 | 0.0000 |
| 34 | 6/25/2026, 8:45:35 AM | 68.0499 | 0.0000 |
| 33 | 6/24/2026, 8:45:35 AM | 68.0499 | 0.0000 |
| 32 | 6/23/2026, 8:45:09 AM | 68.0499 | 0.0000 |
| 31 | 6/22/2026, 8:45:10 AM | 68.0499 | 0.0000 |
| 30 | 6/21/2026, 8:45:12 AM | 68.0499 | 0.0000 |
| 29 | 6/20/2026, 8:45:17 AM | 68.0499 | 0.0000 |
| 28 | 6/19/2026, 8:45:17 AM | 68.0499 | 0.0000 |
| 27 | 6/18/2026, 8:45:38 AM | 68.0499 | 0.0000 |
| 26 | 6/17/2026, 8:45:28 AM | 68.0499 | 0.0000 |
| 25 | 6/16/2026, 8:45:14 AM | 68.0499 | 0.0000 |
| 24 | 6/15/2026, 8:45:15 AM | 68.0499 | 0.0000 |
| 23 | 6/14/2026, 8:45:46 AM | 68.0499 | 0.0000 |
| 22 | 6/13/2026, 8:45:13 AM | 68.0499 | 0.0000 |
| 21 | 6/12/2026, 8:45:22 AM | 68.0499 | 0.0000 |
| 20 | 6/11/2026, 8:45:28 AM | 68.0499 | 0.0000 |
| 19 | 6/10/2026, 8:45:44 AM | 68.0499 | 0.0000 |
| 18 | 6/9/2026, 8:45:57 AM | 68.0499 | 0.0000 |
| 17 | 6/8/2026, 10:53:09 PM | 68.0499 | 0.0000 |
| 16 | 6/8/2026, 8:45:39 AM | 68.0499 | 0.0000 |
| 15 | 6/7/2026, 8:45:35 AM | 68.0499 | 0.0000 |
| 14 | 6/6/2026, 8:45:34 AM | 68.0499 | -16.9347 |
| 13 | 6/5/2026, 8:45:57 AM | 84.9845 | 0.0000 |
| 12 | 6/4/2026, 7:12:16 PM | 84.9845 | 0.0000 |
| 11 | 6/4/2026, 4:21:28 PM | 84.9845 | 0.0000 |
| 10 | 6/4/2026, 4:20:36 PM | 84.9845 | 0.0000 |
| 9 | 6/4/2026, 4:20:09 PM | 84.9845 | 0.0000 |
| 8 | 6/4/2026, 8:45:44 AM | 84.9845 | 0.0000 |
| 7 | 6/3/2026, 8:45:18 AM | 84.9845 | 0.0000 |
| 6 | 6/2/2026, 8:45:36 AM | 84.9845 | 0.0000 |
| 5 | 6/2/2026, 3:48:37 AM | 84.9845 | 0.0000 |
| 4 | 6/2/2026, 3:13:30 AM | 84.9845 | 0.0000 |
| 3 | 6/2/2026, 3:02:33 AM | 84.9845 | -7.3155 |
| 2 | 9/30/2025, 12:00:00 AM | 92.3000 | +6.1000 |
| 1 | 6/30/2025, 12:00:00 AM | 86.2000 | — |
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/https://www.atlantafed.org/researchhttps://www.clevelandfed.org/our-research/indicators-and-datahttps://data.oecd.org/leadind/consumer-confidence-index-cci.htmhttps://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greedhttps://trends.google.com/Stewards see Palanor Indices tuned to their mandate.
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| FRED |
| 30% |
| positive |
| zscore_24m |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| +0.386 |