The Palanor Indices
The instruments Palanor builds to read what the singular series cannot.
Anyone can show you CPI. Anyone can show you the VIX. Palanor builds composites — transparently disclosed, weight-by-weight, with public-source components.
The Palanor Indices
Anyone can show you CPI. Anyone can show you the VIX. Palanor builds composites — transparently disclosed, weight-by-weight, with public-source components.
A composite read of how hot the labor market is running — openings, employment cycle, wages, and search intent.
Palanor: Labor Heat is a single 0–100 read of how taut the labor market is — how much demand for workers is outrunning supply, and how that imbalance is showing up in early-cycle signals before it shows up in the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate is famously lagging; this index is built so it does not have to be.
JOLTS job openings and temporary-help employment carry the highest weights because they lead the cycle. Initial jobless claims are sign-flipped so rising claims cool the index. The unemployment rate is recentered against a working NAIRU anchor near 4% so the contribution reads tightness rather than absolute level. The Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker is the wage-pressure pulse — sticky in both directions. The two Google Trends terms (hiring positive, layoff negative) are the public-anxiety proxy: a fast read on what people are seeing in their own networks.
Each component is transformed (z-score over 24 months, 12-month % change, or level recentered to NAIRU 4%) and sign-flipped where negative. The weighted sum is mapped through a logistic to 0–100. Missing components renormalize.
Readings above 70 mark a labor market that is running hot — talent acquisition is expensive and slow, wage pressure compounds, services-sector inflation tends to follow. Readings below 30 mark a cooling labor market — temp help is being released, openings are evaporating, and the unemployment rate is about to follow. The most useful early signal is sharp divergence between JOLTS openings and temp help: it tends to lead the headline narrative by quarters.
Wage growth in particular is monthly and slow; sharp turns will not show up here for weeks. The hiring/layoff search terms can become contaminated during major news events. The 4% NAIRU anchor is a working assumption; some estimates run higher post-pandemic.
Every component, every weight. The 30-day spark shows how the underlying series has moved; the transform column shows how it converts to a comparable scale before weighting. Direction indicates whether rising values raise or lower the index.
| Component | Source | Weight | Direction | Transform | 30d | 24h | 30d Δ | Now contributing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JOLTS Job Openings | FRED | 21% | positive | zscore_24m | — | — | — | +0.304 |
| Temp Help Services Employment | FRED | 17% | positive | pct_change_12m | — | — | — | +0.313 |
| Initial Jobless Claims |
Numen for the public read:
Palanor reads labor heat at 66.1 of 100 — modestly above its 24-month neutral. The composite is steady, with the weight of components leaning in one direction.
24-month history of this index. The composite is recomputed daily; values are stored with timestamps.
| # | Computed at | Value | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 83 | 7/11/2026, 8:45:39 AM | 66.1220 | +1.5273 |
| 82 | 7/10/2026, 8:45:17 AM | 64.5947 | -0.0199 |
| 81 | 7/9/2026, 8:45:57 AM | 64.6146 | -0.7873 |
| 80 | 7/8/2026, 8:45:57 AM | 65.4019 | -0.0370 |
| 79 | 7/7/2026, 8:45:57 AM | 65.4389 | -0.0827 |
| 78 | 7/6/2026, 8:45:58 AM | 65.5216 | +2.9114 |
| 77 | 7/5/2026, 8:45:57 AM | 62.6102 | -1.5803 |
| 76 | 7/4/2026, 8:45:57 AM | 64.1905 | +0.1062 |
| 75 | 7/3/2026, 8:45:58 AM | 64.0843 | +0.9198 |
| 74 | 7/2/2026, 8:45:57 AM | 63.1645 | 0.0000 |
| 73 | 7/1/2026, 8:45:39 AM | 63.1645 | -2.9070 |
| 72 | 6/30/2026, 8:45:40 AM | 66.0715 | +0.8643 |
| 71 | 6/29/2026, 8:45:54 AM | 65.2072 | +0.8349 |
| 70 | 6/28/2026, 8:45:55 AM | 64.3723 | +0.5409 |
| 69 | 6/27/2026, 8:45:53 AM | 63.8314 | -0.5195 |
| 68 | 6/26/2026, 8:45:54 AM | 64.3509 | +2.8517 |
| 67 | 6/25/2026, 8:45:32 AM | 61.4992 | +0.0153 |
| 66 | 6/24/2026, 8:45:33 AM | 61.4840 | -0.8009 |
| 65 | 6/23/2026, 8:45:07 AM | 62.2849 | +1.7562 |
| 64 | 6/22/2026, 8:45:09 AM | 60.5287 | 0.0000 |
| 63 | 6/21/2026, 8:45:10 AM | 60.5287 | +0.4710 |
| 62 | 6/20/2026, 8:45:16 AM | 60.0577 | -0.1221 |
| 61 | 6/19/2026, 8:45:16 AM | 60.1798 | -0.7907 |
| 60 | 6/18/2026, 8:45:36 AM | 60.9705 | +0.3955 |
| 59 | 6/17/2026, 8:45:26 AM | 60.5750 | -0.8115 |
| 58 | 6/16/2026, 8:45:13 AM | 61.3865 | +2.9656 |
| 57 | 6/15/2026, 8:45:13 AM | 58.4210 | -0.6393 |
| 56 | 6/14/2026, 8:45:44 AM | 59.0602 | -0.7972 |
| 55 | 6/13/2026, 8:45:12 AM | 59.8574 | +0.7185 |
| 54 | 6/12/2026, 8:45:21 AM | 59.1389 | -1.3541 |
| 53 | 6/11/2026, 8:45:26 AM | 60.4930 | +0.0001 |
| 52 | 6/10/2026, 8:45:42 AM | 60.4929 | -1.0453 |
| 51 | 6/9/2026, 8:45:55 AM | 61.5382 | 0.0000 |
| 50 | 6/8/2026, 10:53:08 PM | 61.5382 | 0.0000 |
| 49 | 6/8/2026, 8:45:38 AM | 61.5382 | 0.0000 |
| 48 | 6/7/2026, 8:45:33 AM | 61.5382 | -0.0953 |
| 47 | 6/6/2026, 8:45:33 AM | 61.6335 | +1.1976 |
| 46 | 6/5/2026, 8:45:55 AM | 60.4360 | -2.7931 |
| 45 | 6/4/2026, 7:12:14 PM | 63.2290 | 0.0000 |
| 44 | 6/4/2026, 4:21:24 PM | 63.2290 | 0.0000 |
| 43 | 6/4/2026, 4:20:34 PM | 63.2290 | 0.0000 |
| 42 | 6/4/2026, 4:20:06 PM | 63.2290 | 0.0000 |
| 41 | 6/4/2026, 8:45:43 AM | 63.2290 | +11.5094 |
| 40 | 6/3/2026, 8:45:17 AM | 51.7196 | +0.0036 |
| 39 | 6/2/2026, 8:45:34 AM | 51.7160 | +3.8871 |
| 38 | 6/2/2026, 3:48:35 AM | 47.8290 | 0.0000 |
| 37 | 6/2/2026, 3:13:28 AM | 47.8290 | 0.0000 |
| 36 | 6/2/2026, 3:02:31 AM | 47.8290 | 0.0000 |
| 35 | 6/2/2026, 3:00:53 AM | 47.8290 | -0.0018 |
| 34 | 6/1/2026, 8:45:48 AM | 47.8307 | -0.2785 |
| 33 | 5/31/2026, 8:45:36 AM | 48.1092 | -3.4166 |
| 32 | 5/30/2026, 8:45:29 AM | 51.5258 | 0.0000 |
| 31 | 5/30/2026, 5:04:22 AM | 51.5258 | 0.0000 |
| 30 | 5/30/2026, 4:55:37 AM | 51.5258 | 0.0000 |
| 29 | 5/30/2026, 4:12:37 AM | 51.5258 | 0.0000 |
| 28 | 5/30/2026, 4:12:21 AM | 51.5258 | -0.0006 |
| 27 | 5/29/2026, 8:45:30 AM | 51.5264 | -2.2162 |
| 26 | 5/29/2026, 4:58:27 AM | 53.7425 | 0.0000 |
| 25 | 5/28/2026, 8:45:15 AM | 53.7425 | -0.5957 |
| 24 | 5/27/2026, 8:45:49 AM | 54.3382 | +2.5922 |
| 23 | 5/26/2026, 8:45:25 AM | 51.7460 | 0.0000 |
| 22 | 5/26/2026, 6:48:31 AM | 51.7460 | 0.0000 |
| 21 | 5/26/2026, 6:48:25 AM | 51.7460 | 0.0000 |
| 20 | 5/26/2026, 3:54:58 AM | 51.7460 | 0.0000 |
| 19 | 5/26/2026, 3:54:12 AM | 51.7460 | 0.0000 |
| 18 | 5/26/2026, 3:53:42 AM | 51.7460 | 0.0000 |
| 17 | 5/25/2026, 8:45:26 AM | 51.7460 | 0.0000 |
| 16 | 5/24/2026, 8:45:45 AM | 51.7460 | -0.2273 |
| 15 | 5/23/2026, 8:45:27 AM | 51.9733 | +1.5833 |
| 14 | 5/22/2026, 8:45:19 AM | 50.3900 | +0.6511 |
| 13 | 5/21/2026, 8:45:06 AM | 49.7389 | -1.6687 |
| 12 | 5/20/2026, 8:45:30 AM | 51.4076 | +0.0604 |
| 11 | 5/19/2026, 8:45:36 AM | 51.3472 | -0.4952 |
| 10 | 5/18/2026, 8:45:12 AM | 51.8423 | +0.6521 |
| 9 | 5/18/2026, 5:36:02 AM | 51.1903 | 0.0000 |
| 8 | 5/18/2026, 5:33:44 AM | 51.1903 | 0.0000 |
| 7 | 5/18/2026, 5:33:26 AM | 51.1903 | +3.6195 |
| 6 | 5/17/2026, 11:14:03 PM | 47.5708 | 0.0000 |
| 5 | 5/17/2026, 9:00:54 PM | 47.5708 | 0.0000 |
| 4 | 5/17/2026, 8:45:24 AM | 47.5708 | 0.0000 |
| 3 | 5/16/2026, 8:45:39 AM | 47.5708 | 0.0000 |
| 2 | 5/16/2026, 1:41:47 AM | 47.5708 | +8.2490 |
| 1 | 5/16/2026, 1:39:33 AM | 39.3218 | — |
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/https://www.atlantafed.org/researchhttps://www.clevelandfed.org/our-research/indicators-and-datahttps://data.oecd.org/leadind/consumer-confidence-index-cci.htmhttps://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greedhttps://trends.google.com/Stewards see Palanor Indices tuned to their mandate.
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| FRED |
| 17% |
| negative |
| zscore_24m |
| 0.00 |
| ▼ 11000 |
| +0.122 |
| Unemployment Rate | FRED | 13% | negative | level_neutral_4p0 | — | — | — | -0.026 |
| Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker | FRED | 13% | positive | level | — | — | — | -0.173 |
| Google Trends — "hiring" (US) | Google Trends | 7% | positive | zscore_24m | ▼ 8.00 | ▲ 17.00 | -0.009 |
| Google Trends — "layoff" (US) | Google Trends | 7% | negative | zscore_24m | ▼ 13.00 | ▲ 5.00 | +0.020 |
| How high will unemployment get before 2030? | Kalshi | 6% | negative | level_50_center | 0.00 | ▲ 0.120 | +0.118 |