Palanor: Energy Transition

Overview

The Energy Transition Index reads the pace at which the energy stack is shifting under the economy. The composition is contrarian: rising hydrocarbon prices indicate scarcity, which slows transition; rising industrial-metals prices indicate electrification capex, which accelerates it. The reading rises when the transition is accelerating.

Why these components

WTI, Brent, and natural gas enter with negative direction — when hydrocarbons get expensive, the transition gets harder, not easier. Copper and silver enter positive — both are physical inputs to the electrification stack. Industrial production is a small positive component because manufacturing buildout signals capex deployment. GitHub trending is included as a small AI-velocity component, because AI is now a meaningful electricity-demand driver.

Methodology

Hydrocarbons measured as 12-month percentage change to capture price regime. Industrial metals measured as percentage change for the same reason. Industrial production as percentage change. GitHub trending as a z-score. Weighted sum, logistic scaling.

Interpretation

Readings above 65 indicate the transition is moving faster than the 24-month baseline. Readings below 35 indicate the transition has stalled — typically because hydrocarbons are cheap, removing the economic pressure to shift. The most informative regime is divergence: hydrocarbons cheap, industrial metals also cheap, transition stalling for fundamental rather than political reasons.

Caveats

The index does not separate political/regulatory drivers from market drivers. A policy shift (e.g., IRA repeal, EU green deal change) would not register directly. A future version may add policy-event signals; the current version reads market behavior only.

Components & Weights

Every component, every weight. The 30-day spark shows how the underlying series has moved; the transform column shows how it converts to a comparable scale before weighting. Direction indicates whether rising values raise or lower the index.

Awaiting data means the most recent compute did not have a fresh value for that component. The composite re-normalizes around what is present, so the index reading remains meaningful. The component returns the moment its source publishes.

Historical

24-month history of this index. The composite is recomputed daily; values are stored with timestamps.

References

• FRED — Federal Reserve Economic Data, St. Louis Fed. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/
• Atlanta Fed — Wage Growth Tracker and Sticky-Price CPI. https://www.atlantafed.org/research
• Cleveland Fed — Model-based inflation expectations. https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-research/indicators-and-data
• OECD — Composite Consumer Confidence Indicator. https://data.oecd.org/leadind/consumer-confidence-index-cci.htm
• CNN Business — Fear & Greed Index. https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed
• Google Trends — interest over time. https://trends.google.com/