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The pace at which the energy stack is shifting under the economy. Higher reading, faster shift.
Current reading
65.0
of 100 · Above neutral
Last computed
2026-07-11 08:45 UTC
5 of 5 components used
Overview
The Energy Transition Index reads the pace at which the energy stack is shifting under the economy. The composition is contrarian: rising hydrocarbon prices indicate scarcity, which slows transition; rising industrial-metals prices indicate electrification capex, which accelerates it. The reading rises when the transition is accelerating.
Why these components
WTI, Brent, and natural gas enter with negative direction — when hydrocarbons get expensive, the transition gets harder, not easier. Copper and silver enter positive — both are physical inputs to the electrification stack. Industrial production is a small positive component because manufacturing buildout signals capex deployment. GitHub trending is included as a small AI-velocity component, because AI is now a meaningful electricity-demand driver.
Methodology
Hydrocarbons measured as 12-month percentage change to capture price regime. Industrial metals measured as percentage change for the same reason. Industrial production as percentage change. GitHub trending as a z-score. Weighted sum, logistic scaling.
Interpretation
Readings above 65 indicate the transition is moving faster than the 24-month baseline. Readings below 35 indicate the transition has stalled — typically because hydrocarbons are cheap, removing the economic pressure to shift. The most informative regime is divergence: hydrocarbons cheap, industrial metals also cheap, transition stalling for fundamental rather than political reasons.
Caveats
The index does not separate political/regulatory drivers from market drivers. A policy shift (e.g., IRA repeal, EU green deal change) would not register directly. A future version may add policy-event signals; the current version reads market behavior only.
Components & Weights
Every component, every weight. The 30-day spark shows how the underlying series has moved; the transform column shows how it converts to a comparable scale before weighting. Direction indicates whether rising values raise or lower the index.
Component
Source
Weight
Direction
Transform
30d
24h
30d Δ
Now contributing
WTI Crude Oil
FRED
24%
negative
pct_change_12m
▼ 0.130
▼ 21.98
-0.032
Brent Crude Oil
FRED
16%
negative
pct_change_12m
Current Reading
Value
65.0
Raw composite
0.620
Scale
sigmoid_0_100
Numen for the public read:
Palanor reads energy transition at 65.0 of 100 — modestly above its 24-month neutral. The composite is steady, with the weight of components leaning in one direction.
Historical
24-month history of this index. The composite is recomputed daily; values are stored with timestamps.
79 readings · 55 days · range 34.48 — 65.205/17/2026 → 7/11/2026
Download
Raw readings · 79 rows ▾
#
Computed at
Value
Δ
79
7/11/2026, 8:45:37 AM
65.0320
-0.1112
78
7/10/2026, 8:45:15 AM
65.1433
-0.0617
77
7/9/2026, 8:45:55 AM
65.2050
+3.1176
76
7/8/2026, 8:45:55 AM
62.0874
0.0000
75
7/7/2026, 8:45:55 AM
62.0874
-0.3901
74
7/6/2026, 8:45:56 AM
62.4775
-0.0388
73
7/5/2026, 8:45:55 AM
62.5163
-0.3902
72
7/4/2026, 8:45:55 AM
62.9065
-0.1146
71
7/3/2026, 8:45:56 AM
63.0211
+0.2506
70
7/2/2026, 8:45:55 AM
62.7705
+0.5901
69
7/1/2026, 8:45:37 AM
62.1804
+0.0028
68
6/30/2026, 8:45:37 AM
62.1776
+0.2864
67
6/29/2026, 8:45:52 AM
61.8912
+0.1483
66
6/28/2026, 8:45:53 AM
61.7429
+0.0598
65
6/27/2026, 8:45:51 AM
61.6831
0.0000
64
6/26/2026, 8:45:52 AM
61.6831
0.0000
63
6/25/2026, 8:45:30 AM
61.6831
+1.9013
62
6/24/2026, 8:45:31 AM
59.7818
-0.4329
61
6/23/2026, 8:45:05 AM
60.2148
-0.0812
60
6/22/2026, 8:45:07 AM
60.2960
+0.2513
59
6/21/2026, 8:45:09 AM
60.0447
+0.2666
58
6/20/2026, 8:45:14 AM
59.7781
+0.1296
57
6/19/2026, 8:45:14 AM
59.6484
0.0000
56
6/18/2026, 8:45:34 AM
59.6484
+11.5794
55
6/17/2026, 8:45:24 AM
48.0690
+0.0529
54
6/16/2026, 8:45:11 AM
48.0161
+0.6872
53
6/15/2026, 8:45:11 AM
47.3289
-0.1246
52
6/14/2026, 8:45:43 AM
47.4535
+0.0393
51
6/13/2026, 8:45:10 AM
47.4142
+0.2215
50
6/12/2026, 8:45:19 AM
47.1927
0.0000
49
6/11/2026, 8:45:24 AM
47.1927
+3.3898
48
6/10/2026, 8:45:41 AM
43.8029
-0.0298
47
6/9/2026, 8:45:53 AM
43.8327
+0.0906
46
6/8/2026, 10:53:06 PM
43.7421
-0.0265
45
6/8/2026, 8:45:36 AM
43.7685
-0.0372
44
6/7/2026, 8:45:31 AM
43.8057
-0.0063
43
6/6/2026, 8:45:31 AM
43.8120
+2.8212
42
6/5/2026, 8:45:53 AM
40.9908
0.0000
41
6/4/2026, 7:12:12 PM
40.9908
0.0000
40
6/4/2026, 4:21:23 PM
40.9908
0.0000
39
6/4/2026, 4:20:32 PM
40.9908
0.0000
38
6/4/2026, 4:20:04 PM
40.9908
0.0000
37
6/4/2026, 8:45:41 AM
40.9908
+4.1337
36
6/3/2026, 8:45:15 AM
36.8571
+0.0319
35
6/2/2026, 8:45:32 AM
36.8252
0.0000
34
6/2/2026, 3:48:34 AM
36.8252
0.0000
33
6/2/2026, 3:13:27 AM
36.8252
0.0000
32
6/2/2026, 3:02:30 AM
36.8252
0.0000
31
6/2/2026, 3:00:51 AM
36.8252
+0.1371
30
6/1/2026, 8:45:47 AM
36.6881
0.0000
29
5/31/2026, 8:45:35 AM
36.6881
-0.3773
28
5/30/2026, 8:45:28 AM
37.0654
0.0000
27
5/30/2026, 5:04:21 AM
37.0654
0.0000
26
5/30/2026, 4:55:36 AM
37.0654
0.0000
25
5/30/2026, 4:12:36 AM
37.0654
0.0000
24
5/30/2026, 4:12:19 AM
37.0654
+0.3025
23
5/29/2026, 8:45:28 AM
36.7629
+2.2455
22
5/29/2026, 4:58:26 AM
34.5174
+0.0068
21
5/28/2026, 8:45:13 AM
34.5106
0.0000
20
5/27/2026, 8:45:50 AM
34.5106
0.0000
19
5/26/2026, 8:45:27 AM
34.5106
0.0000
18
5/26/2026, 6:48:32 AM
34.5106
0.0000
17
5/26/2026, 6:48:27 AM
34.5106
0.0000
16
5/26/2026, 3:54:59 AM
34.5106
0.0000
15
5/26/2026, 3:54:13 AM
34.5106
0.0000
14
5/26/2026, 3:53:43 AM
34.5106
+0.0075
13
5/25/2026, 8:45:27 AM
34.5031
+0.0072
12
5/24/2026, 8:45:45 AM
34.4960
+0.0065
11
5/23/2026, 8:45:26 AM
34.4894
+0.0065
10
5/22/2026, 8:45:19 AM
34.4829
+0.0063
9
5/21/2026, 8:45:06 AM
34.4766
-0.5384
8
5/20/2026, 8:45:29 AM
35.0150
0.0000
7
5/19/2026, 8:45:35 AM
35.0150
+0.0072
6
5/18/2026, 8:45:11 AM
35.0078
0.0000
5
5/18/2026, 5:36:00 AM
35.0078
0.0000
4
5/18/2026, 5:33:41 AM
35.0078
0.0000
3
5/18/2026, 5:33:24 AM
35.0078
+0.0064
2
5/17/2026, 11:14:09 PM
35.0014
0.0000
1
5/17/2026, 9:01:00 PM
35.0014
—
References
FRED — Federal Reserve Economic Data, St. Louis Fed. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/
Atlanta Fed — Wage Growth Tracker and Sticky-Price CPI. https://www.atlantafed.org/research
