The instruments Palanor builds to read what the singular series cannot.
Anyone can show you CPI. Anyone can show you the VIX. Palanor builds composites — transparently disclosed, weight-by-weight, with public-source components.
When the watch gets hot. A composite read of US stock-market valuation, percentile-ranked against its own history. Current reading near all-time peak.
Current reading
88.9
of 100 · Elevated
Last computed
2026-07-11 08:45 UTC
2 of 2 components used
What it measures
The Mania Index is the average historical-percentile rank of two long-history valuation metrics for the US stock market: Shiller CAPE (the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio) and the Buffett Indicator (Wilshire 5000 total market cap divided by US GDP). When both metrics sit near their all-time highs, the index reads near 100. When both sit near their all-time lows, the index reads near 0. The midpoint is the long-run norm.
Not a forecast. A reading of where the watch is.
Why these two metrics
CAPE smooths earnings over a rolling ten-year inflation-adjusted window — it cannot be gamed by a single quarter of unusually good or bad earnings. The Buffett Indicator anchors equity market value to the actual size of the underlying economy. Together they cover the two dimensions where bubbles always appear: earnings divorced from history, and price divorced from economic substance. Eight-metric versions of this exist (Bloomberg publishes one). They add forward P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/B, P/S, Q-Ratio, and trailing P/E — useful, but most have shorter histories. We start with two and add more as the methodology earns it.
How to read the bands
0–25 is the calm band — stocks are cheap relative to their own history. 25–50 is the watchful band — slightly elevated. 50–75 is the elevated band — well into expensive territory. 75–100 is the mania band — where the watch gets hot. The current reading sits in the mania band, near the 2021 peak and the 2000 dot-com peak. Past peaks: 1929 (~95), 2000 (~99), 2021 (~95), 2025 (current).
What it does not say
Valuation is not a timing signal. The 2000 dot-com peak sat in the mania band for almost two years before it broke. The 1929 peak the same. A high reading does not predict a crash next month or next quarter — it tells you the conditions for one are present, and the margin for error has compressed. Cycle-aware stewards read this index against credit conditions, sentiment, and the policy stance. We will publish those reads alongside, and the Custom Index catalog grows from there.
Components & Weights
Every component, every weight. The 30-day spark shows how the underlying series has moved; the transform column shows how it converts to a comparable scale before weighting. Direction indicates whether rising values raise or lower the index.
Component
Source
Weight
Direction
Transform
30d
24h
30d Δ
Now contributing
Shiller CAPE (S&P 500)
Shiller
50%
positive
zscore_24m
—
—
—
+0.937
Buffett Indicator
FRED
50%
positive
zscore_24m
—
—
—
+0.618
Current Reading
Value
88.9
Raw composite
1.555
Scale
linear_0_100
Numen for the public read:
Palanor reads mania as elevated at 88.9 of 100 — well above its 24-month neutral. The composite is leaning into the regime, not against it.
Historical
24-month history of this index. The composite is recomputed daily; values are stored with timestamps.
64 readings · 710 days · range 86.40 — 96.408/1/2024 → 7/11/2026
Y-axis auto-zoomed · data clusters tightly
Download
Raw readings · 64 rows ▾
#
Computed at
Value
Δ
64
7/11/2026, 8:45:41 AM
88.8723
0.0000
63
7/10/2026, 8:45:19 AM
88.8723
0.0000
62
7/9/2026, 8:45:58 AM
88.8723
0.0000
61
7/8/2026, 8:45:58 AM
88.8723
0.0000
60
7/7/2026, 8:45:59 AM
88.8723
0.0000
59
7/6/2026, 8:45:59 AM
88.8723
0.0000
58
7/5/2026, 8:45:58 AM
88.8723
0.0000
57
7/4/2026, 8:45:59 AM
88.8723
0.0000
56
7/3/2026, 8:45:59 AM
88.8723
0.0000
55
7/2/2026, 8:45:58 AM
88.8723
0.0000
54
7/1/2026, 8:45:40 AM
88.8723
+0.0712
53
6/30/2026, 8:45:41 AM
88.8011
0.0000
52
6/29/2026, 8:45:55 AM
88.8011
0.0000
51
6/28/2026, 8:45:56 AM
88.8011
0.0000
50
6/27/2026, 8:45:54 AM
88.8011
0.0000
49
6/26/2026, 8:45:55 AM
88.8011
0.0000
48
6/25/2026, 8:45:34 AM
88.8011
0.0000
47
6/24/2026, 8:45:34 AM
88.8011
0.0000
46
6/23/2026, 8:45:09 AM
88.8011
0.0000
45
6/22/2026, 8:45:10 AM
88.8011
0.0000
44
6/21/2026, 8:45:12 AM
88.8011
0.0000
43
6/20/2026, 8:45:17 AM
88.8011
0.0000
42
6/19/2026, 8:45:17 AM
88.8011
0.0000
41
6/18/2026, 8:45:37 AM
88.8011
0.0000
40
6/17/2026, 8:45:28 AM
88.8011
0.0000
39
6/16/2026, 8:45:14 AM
88.8011
0.0000
38
6/15/2026, 8:45:14 AM
88.8011
0.0000
37
6/14/2026, 8:45:45 AM
88.8011
0.0000
36
6/13/2026, 8:45:13 AM
88.8011
0.0000
35
6/12/2026, 8:45:22 AM
88.8011
0.0000
34
6/11/2026, 8:45:28 AM
88.8011
0.0000
33
6/10/2026, 8:45:43 AM
88.8011
0.0000
32
6/9/2026, 8:45:56 AM
88.8011
0.0000
31
6/8/2026, 10:53:09 PM
88.8011
0.0000
30
6/8/2026, 8:45:39 AM
88.8011
0.0000
29
6/7/2026, 8:45:35 AM
88.8011
0.0000
28
6/6/2026, 8:45:34 AM
88.8011
0.0000
27
6/5/2026, 8:45:57 AM
88.8011
0.0000
26
6/4/2026, 7:12:15 PM
88.8011
0.0000
25
6/4/2026, 4:21:27 PM
88.8011
0.0000
24
6/4/2026, 4:20:35 PM
88.8011
0.0000
23
6/4/2026, 4:20:09 PM
88.8011
0.0000
22
6/4/2026, 8:45:44 AM
88.8011
0.0000
21
6/3/2026, 8:45:18 AM
88.8011
0.0000
20
6/2/2026, 8:45:35 AM
88.8011
0.0000
19
6/2/2026, 3:48:36 AM
88.8011
0.0000
18
6/2/2026, 3:13:30 AM
88.8011
0.0000
17
6/2/2026, 3:02:32 AM
88.8011
-7.2989
16
11/1/2025, 12:00:00 AM
96.1000
-0.3000
15
10/1/2025, 12:00:00 AM
96.4000
+3.0000
14
9/1/2025, 12:00:00 AM
93.4000
+0.8000
13
8/1/2025, 12:00:00 AM
92.6000
+1.2000
12
7/1/2025, 12:00:00 AM
91.4000
+0.3000
11
6/1/2025, 12:00:00 AM
91.1000
+2.2000
10
5/1/2025, 12:00:00 AM
88.9000
-1.2000
9
4/1/2025, 12:00:00 AM
90.1000
-0.5000
8
3/1/2025, 12:00:00 AM
90.6000
-2.0000
7
2/1/2025, 12:00:00 AM
92.6000
-0.8000
6
1/1/2025, 12:00:00 AM
93.4000
+2.5000
5
12/1/2024, 12:00:00 AM
90.9000
+1.2000
4
11/1/2024, 12:00:00 AM
89.7000
+0.5000
3
10/1/2024, 12:00:00 AM
89.2000
+1.6000
2
9/1/2024, 12:00:00 AM
87.6000
+1.2000
1
8/1/2024, 12:00:00 AM
86.4000
—
References
FRED — Federal Reserve Economic Data, St. Louis Fed. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/
Atlanta Fed — Wage Growth Tracker and Sticky-Price CPI. https://www.atlantafed.org/research
