The Palanor Indices
The instruments Palanor builds to read what the singular series cannot.
Anyone can show you CPI. Anyone can show you the VIX. Palanor builds composites — transparently disclosed, weight-by-weight, with public-source components.
The Palanor Indices
Anyone can show you CPI. Anyone can show you the VIX. Palanor builds composites — transparently disclosed, weight-by-weight, with public-source components.
The price of patience. Real Fed funds rate percentile against full available history — high = capital is expensive, low = capital is cheap.
The Real Rate Index is the historical percentile of the real Fed funds rate — the effective Fed funds rate minus trailing twelve-month CPI inflation. High readings mean the cost of capital is expensive relative to history; low readings mean money is cheap. The midpoint is the long-run real rate norm.
The price of patience, measured.
Real rates are the most under-appreciated number in capital allocation. They decide whether to deploy capital now or wait. When real rates are deeply negative — as they were in 2009-2015 and 2020-2022 — patience is expensive and aggressive deployment makes sense. When real rates are high — as in the early 1980s and again in 2023-2024 — patience is cheap and discipline pays. A single percentile makes this read board-meeting-legible.
0-25 (CALM) — real rates near long-run lows, capital is being given away. 25-50 (WATCHFUL) — slightly stimulative. 50-75 (ELEVATED) — real rates above norm, capital is expensive. 75-100 (MANIA) — real rates near long-run highs, deep risk-on positioning is being punished by carry.
v1 uses a single component (real Fed funds). v2 will add 10-year TIPS yield, 30-year real mortgage rate, and real high-yield corporate yield to give a fuller term-structure view of real cost of capital across durations.
Every component, every weight. The 30-day spark shows how the underlying series has moved; the transform column shows how it converts to a comparable scale before weighting. Direction indicates whether rising values raise or lower the index.
| Component | Source | Weight | Direction | Transform | 30d | 24h | 30d Δ | Now contributing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Fed Funds Rate | FRED | 100% | positive | zscore_24m | — | — | — | +0.878 |
Numen for the public read:
Palanor reads real rate as elevated at 72.0 of 100 — well above its 24-month neutral. The composite is leaning into the regime, not against it.
24-month history of this index. The composite is recomputed daily; values are stored with timestamps.
Y-axis auto-zoomed · data clusters tightly
| # | Computed at | Value | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 7/11/2026, 8:45:41 AM | 71.9581 | 0.0000 |
| 49 | 7/10/2026, 8:45:19 AM | 71.9581 | 0.0000 |
| 48 | 7/9/2026, 8:45:59 AM | 71.9581 | 0.0000 |
| 47 | 7/8/2026, 8:45:59 AM | 71.9581 | 0.0000 |
| 46 | 7/7/2026, 8:45:59 AM | 71.9581 | 0.0000 |
| 45 | 7/6/2026, 8:46:00 AM | 71.9581 | 0.0000 |
| 44 | 7/5/2026, 8:45:59 AM | 71.9581 | 0.0000 |
| 43 | 7/4/2026, 8:45:59 AM | 71.9581 | 0.0000 |
| 42 | 7/3/2026, 8:46:00 AM | 71.9581 | 0.0000 |
| 41 | 7/2/2026, 8:45:59 AM | 71.9581 | 0.0000 |
| 40 | 7/1/2026, 8:45:41 AM | 71.9581 | 0.0000 |
| 39 | 6/30/2026, 8:45:42 AM | 71.9581 | 0.0000 |
| 38 | 6/29/2026, 8:45:56 AM | 71.9581 | 0.0000 |
| 37 | 6/28/2026, 8:45:57 AM | 71.9581 | 0.0000 |
| 36 | 6/27/2026, 8:45:55 AM | 71.9581 | 0.0000 |
| 35 | 6/26/2026, 8:45:56 AM | 71.9581 | 0.0000 |
| 34 | 6/25/2026, 8:45:35 AM | 71.9581 | 0.0000 |
| 33 | 6/24/2026, 8:45:35 AM | 71.9581 | 0.0000 |
| 32 | 6/23/2026, 8:45:09 AM | 71.9581 | 0.0000 |
| 31 | 6/22/2026, 8:45:10 AM | 71.9581 | 0.0000 |
| 30 | 6/21/2026, 8:45:12 AM | 71.9581 | 0.0000 |
| 29 | 6/20/2026, 8:45:17 AM | 71.9581 | 0.0000 |
| 28 | 6/19/2026, 8:45:17 AM | 71.9581 | 0.0000 |
| 27 | 6/18/2026, 8:45:38 AM | 71.9581 | 0.0000 |
| 26 | 6/17/2026, 8:45:29 AM | 71.9581 | 0.0000 |
| 25 | 6/16/2026, 8:45:14 AM | 71.9581 | 0.0000 |
| 24 | 6/15/2026, 8:45:15 AM | 71.9581 | 0.0000 |
| 23 | 6/14/2026, 8:45:46 AM | 71.9581 | 0.0000 |
| 22 | 6/13/2026, 8:45:13 AM | 71.9581 | 0.0000 |
| 21 | 6/12/2026, 8:45:22 AM | 71.9581 | 0.0000 |
| 20 | 6/11/2026, 8:45:28 AM | 71.9581 | 0.0000 |
| 19 | 6/10/2026, 8:45:44 AM | 71.9581 | 0.0000 |
| 18 | 6/9/2026, 8:45:57 AM | 71.9581 | 0.0000 |
| 17 | 6/8/2026, 10:53:09 PM | 71.9581 | 0.0000 |
| 16 | 6/8/2026, 8:45:39 AM | 71.9581 | 0.0000 |
| 15 | 6/7/2026, 8:45:35 AM | 71.9581 | 0.0000 |
| 14 | 6/6/2026, 8:45:34 AM | 71.9581 | 0.0000 |
| 13 | 6/5/2026, 8:45:57 AM | 71.9581 | 0.0000 |
| 12 | 6/4/2026, 7:12:16 PM | 71.9581 | 0.0000 |
| 11 | 6/4/2026, 4:21:28 PM | 71.9581 | 0.0000 |
| 10 | 6/4/2026, 4:20:36 PM | 71.9581 | 0.0000 |
| 9 | 6/4/2026, 4:20:09 PM | 71.9581 | 0.0000 |
| 8 | 6/4/2026, 8:45:44 AM | 71.9581 | 0.0000 |
| 7 | 6/3/2026, 8:45:18 AM | 71.9581 | 0.0000 |
| 6 | 6/2/2026, 8:45:36 AM | 71.9581 | 0.0000 |
| 5 | 6/2/2026, 3:48:37 AM | 71.9581 | 0.0000 |
| 4 | 6/2/2026, 3:13:30 AM | 71.9581 | 0.0000 |
| 3 | 6/2/2026, 3:02:33 AM | 71.9581 | +4.3581 |
| 2 | 9/30/2025, 12:00:00 AM | 67.6000 | -5.9000 |
| 1 | 12/31/2024, 12:00:00 AM | 73.5000 | — |
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/https://www.atlantafed.org/researchhttps://www.clevelandfed.org/our-research/indicators-and-datahttps://data.oecd.org/leadind/consumer-confidence-index-cci.htmhttps://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greedhttps://trends.google.com/Stewards see Palanor Indices tuned to their mandate.
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