The Palanor Indices
The instruments Palanor builds to read what the singular series cannot.
Anyone can show you CPI. Anyone can show you the VIX. Palanor builds composites — transparently disclosed, weight-by-weight, with public-source components.
The Palanor Indices
Anyone can show you CPI. Anyone can show you the VIX. Palanor builds composites — transparently disclosed, weight-by-weight, with public-source components.
How committed are companies to the AI build-out. Composite of AI intensity in earnings calls + capex guidance direction + leader confidence.
The AI Capex Race Index is the historical percentile of three lenses on whether the AI capex commitment is real or rhetorical: average AI mentions per call across the cohort, net capex guidance direction (% raised - % lowered), and average leader confidence. High readings mean companies are talking about AI a lot AND committing real capital AND speaking with conviction. Low readings mean the discussion is rhetorical, capital is being held back, or management is hedging.
How real the AI build-out is, said in one number.
AI mentions alone are noise — every call mentions AI now. Capex direction is the financial truth — money flowing into infrastructure is real commitment. Confidence captures whether management actually believes what they are saying or hedging the bet. A high reading requires all three: high discussion + real capital + firm conviction.
The index does not measure whether the capex pays off. The 1999 capex cycle in telecom infrastructure was also high on all three dimensions. The index tells you the commitment is real today — not whether it will earn returns. Read against the Mania Index: when AI Capex Race is high AND Mania is high, the build-out is being capitalized into stock prices simultaneously.
When AI Capex Race is in the ELEVATED+ band, the build-out is structurally real. Stewards positioning portfolios around AI infrastructure have a coincident read. When the index falls while AI Mania is still high, the gap is the warning — narrative is outrunning the commitment.
Every component, every weight. The 30-day spark shows how the underlying series has moved; the transform column shows how it converts to a comparable scale before weighting. Direction indicates whether rising values raise or lower the index.
| Component | Source | Weight | Direction | Transform | 30d | 24h | 30d Δ | Now contributing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discourse AI Intensity | Palanor | 40% | positive | zscore_24m | 0.00 | ▼ 15.20 | +0.176 | |
| Discourse Capex Guidance (Net) | Palanor | 35% | positive | zscore_24m |
Numen for the public read:
Palanor reads ai capex race at 44.2 of 100 — modestly below its 24-month neutral. The composite is softening, with the weight of components leaning the other way.
24-month history of this index. The composite is recomputed daily; values are stored with timestamps.
| # | Computed at | Value | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 7/11/2026, 8:45:41 AM | 44.2403 | +0.0559 |
| 47 | 7/10/2026, 8:45:19 AM | 44.1844 | -0.2987 |
| 46 | 7/9/2026, 8:45:59 AM | 44.4831 | +0.0558 |
| 45 | 7/8/2026, 8:45:59 AM | 44.4273 | +0.0574 |
| 44 | 7/7/2026, 8:45:59 AM | 44.3699 | -0.3892 |
| 43 | 7/6/2026, 8:45:59 AM | 44.7591 | +0.0569 |
| 42 | 7/5/2026, 8:45:59 AM | 44.7023 | +0.0586 |
| 41 | 7/4/2026, 8:45:59 AM | 44.6436 | +0.0605 |
| 40 | 7/3/2026, 8:45:59 AM | 44.5832 | -0.5414 |
| 39 | 7/2/2026, 8:45:59 AM | 45.1246 | +0.0599 |
| 38 | 7/1/2026, 8:45:40 AM | 45.0647 | +0.0619 |
| 37 | 6/30/2026, 8:45:42 AM | 45.0028 | +0.5037 |
| 36 | 6/29/2026, 8:45:56 AM | 44.4991 | +0.1901 |
| 35 | 6/28/2026, 8:45:57 AM | 44.3090 | +0.0744 |
| 34 | 6/27/2026, 8:45:55 AM | 44.2346 | +0.0771 |
| 33 | 6/26/2026, 8:45:55 AM | 44.1575 | +0.0800 |
| 32 | 6/25/2026, 8:45:34 AM | 44.0775 | +0.7891 |
| 31 | 6/24/2026, 8:45:35 AM | 43.2884 | +0.0924 |
| 30 | 6/23/2026, 8:45:09 AM | 43.1960 | -0.0912 |
| 29 | 6/22/2026, 8:45:10 AM | 43.2872 | -27.0474 |
| 28 | 6/21/2026, 8:45:12 AM | 70.3347 | -0.7341 |
| 27 | 6/20/2026, 8:45:17 AM | 71.0688 | -0.8117 |
| 26 | 6/19/2026, 8:45:17 AM | 71.8804 | -0.9035 |
| 25 | 6/18/2026, 8:45:37 AM | 72.7840 | +2.5741 |
| 24 | 6/17/2026, 8:45:28 AM | 70.2098 | -1.0387 |
| 23 | 6/16/2026, 8:45:14 AM | 71.2485 | -1.1877 |
| 22 | 6/15/2026, 8:45:15 AM | 72.4362 | -0.9657 |
| 21 | 6/14/2026, 8:45:46 AM | 73.4020 | -0.0691 |
| 20 | 6/13/2026, 8:45:13 AM | 73.4711 | +0.0861 |
| 19 | 6/12/2026, 8:45:22 AM | 73.3850 | +0.0895 |
| 18 | 6/11/2026, 8:45:28 AM | 73.2955 | +0.0931 |
| 17 | 6/10/2026, 8:45:44 AM | 73.2024 | +0.0970 |
| 16 | 6/9/2026, 8:45:56 AM | 73.1053 | +0.3729 |
| 15 | 6/8/2026, 10:53:09 PM | 72.7325 | 0.0000 |
| 14 | 6/8/2026, 8:45:39 AM | 72.7325 | +0.1159 |
| 13 | 6/7/2026, 8:45:35 AM | 72.6166 | +0.1214 |
| 12 | 6/6/2026, 8:45:34 AM | 72.4952 | +0.1274 |
| 11 | 6/5/2026, 8:45:57 AM | 72.3677 | +22.5198 |
| 10 | 6/4/2026, 7:12:15 PM | 49.8480 | 0.0000 |
| 9 | 6/4/2026, 4:21:27 PM | 49.8480 | 0.0000 |
| 8 | 6/4/2026, 4:20:36 PM | 49.8480 | 0.0000 |
| 7 | 6/4/2026, 4:20:09 PM | 49.8480 | 0.0000 |
| 6 | 6/4/2026, 8:45:44 AM | 49.8480 | +1.5116 |
| 5 | 6/3/2026, 8:45:18 AM | 48.3363 | +4.3505 |
| 4 | 6/2/2026, 8:45:36 AM | 43.9858 | +4.3169 |
| 3 | 6/2/2026, 3:48:37 AM | 39.6689 | 0.0000 |
| 2 | 6/2/2026, 3:13:30 AM | 39.6689 | 0.0000 |
| 1 | 6/2/2026, 3:02:33 AM | 39.6689 | — |
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/https://www.atlantafed.org/researchhttps://www.clevelandfed.org/our-research/indicators-and-datahttps://data.oecd.org/leadind/consumer-confidence-index-cci.htmhttps://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greedhttps://trends.google.com/Stewards see Palanor Indices tuned to their mandate.
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| 0.00 |
| ▼ 0.068 |
| -0.276 |
| Discourse Leader Confidence | Palanor | 25% | positive | zscore_24m | 0.00 | ▼ 0.035 | -0.131 |