The Palanor Indices
The instruments Palanor builds to read what the singular series cannot.
Anyone can show you CPI. Anyone can show you the VIX. Palanor builds composites — transparently disclosed, weight-by-weight, with public-source components.
The Palanor Indices
Anyone can show you CPI. Anyone can show you the VIX. Palanor builds composites — transparently disclosed, weight-by-weight, with public-source components.
A composite read of market risk appetite — vol, spreads, sentiment, equity momentum, and safe-haven flows.
Palanor: Risk Appetite is a single 0–100 read of how much risk the market is willing to take. High readings indicate vol compressed, spreads tight, sentiment greedy, equities running, BTC running, gold quiet — the textbook risk-on regime. Low readings invert all of it.
The VIX gets the highest weight because realized and implied equity volatility is the most direct read of risk appetite. High-yield OAS is the credit-market mirror — when risk appetite contracts, junk spreads widen. CNN Fear & Greed is the market-sentiment composite, included alongside (not in place of) the structural measures. Equity momentum (S&P 500) and crypto momentum (BTC) read directional flow; gold, sign-flipped, reads safe-haven demand.
Each component is z-normalized or transformed to a comparable scale and sign-flipped where negative. The weighted sum maps through a logistic to 0–100. The index is most informative in regime detection and inflection rather than as a level claim.
Readings above 70 indicate a textbook risk-on regime — the regime in which leverage builds and complacency compounds, the conditions Minsky described as the prelude to instability. Readings below 30 indicate risk-off, the regime in which dispersion widens and capital becomes scarce. The most informative divergence is between VIX and HY OAS: when vol stays low but credit spreads widen, credit is seeing what equity is not.
Equity-vol-led indices like this one will mechanically run hot whenever VIX is compressed, even if that compression is itself fragile. The BTC component adds noise; we weight it modestly. Gold's sign flip is contestable — gold can rise on inflation as well as on risk-off — and we accept that ambiguity in exchange for the safe-haven information.
Every component, every weight. The 30-day spark shows how the underlying series has moved; the transform column shows how it converts to a comparable scale before weighting. Direction indicates whether rising values raise or lower the index.
| Component | Source | Weight | Direction | Transform | 30d | 24h | 30d Δ | Now contributing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | FRED | 30% | negative | zscore_24m | ▼ 1.06 | ▼ 3.60 | +0.167 | |
| High Yield OAS | FRED | 25% | negative | zscore_24m |
Numen for the public read:
Palanor reads risk appetite at 58.4 of 100 — modestly above its 24-month neutral. The composite is steady, with the weight of components leaning in one direction.
24-month history of this index. The composite is recomputed daily; values are stored with timestamps.
Y-axis auto-zoomed · data clusters tightly
| # | Computed at | Value | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 83 | 7/11/2026, 8:45:34 AM | 58.3915 | +2.2490 |
| 82 | 7/10/2026, 8:45:12 AM | 56.1425 | -0.8237 |
| 81 | 7/9/2026, 8:45:52 AM | 56.9662 | -0.4912 |
| 80 | 7/8/2026, 8:45:52 AM | 57.4574 | +0.3277 |
| 79 | 7/7/2026, 8:45:52 AM | 57.1297 | +4.2701 |
| 78 | 7/6/2026, 8:45:53 AM | 52.8596 | -0.0575 |
| 77 | 7/5/2026, 8:45:52 AM | 52.9171 | +0.0159 |
| 76 | 7/4/2026, 8:45:52 AM | 52.9012 | +0.0144 |
| 75 | 7/3/2026, 8:45:52 AM | 52.8868 | -0.1119 |
| 74 | 7/2/2026, 8:45:52 AM | 52.9987 | +3.0382 |
| 73 | 7/1/2026, 8:45:34 AM | 49.9605 | +3.0140 |
| 72 | 6/30/2026, 8:45:34 AM | 46.9465 | +0.4220 |
| 71 | 6/29/2026, 8:45:49 AM | 46.5245 | -0.0711 |
| 70 | 6/28/2026, 8:45:50 AM | 46.5956 | -0.0810 |
| 69 | 6/27/2026, 8:45:49 AM | 46.6766 | -1.3161 |
| 68 | 6/26/2026, 8:45:49 AM | 47.9928 | -0.2186 |
| 67 | 6/25/2026, 8:45:27 AM | 48.2114 | -5.2191 |
| 66 | 6/24/2026, 8:45:28 AM | 53.4304 | -2.6221 |
| 65 | 6/23/2026, 8:45:03 AM | 56.0526 | +0.8396 |
| 64 | 6/22/2026, 8:45:04 AM | 55.2130 | -0.0376 |
| 63 | 6/21/2026, 8:45:06 AM | 55.2506 | +0.0568 |
| 62 | 6/20/2026, 8:45:12 AM | 55.1938 | +0.0364 |
| 61 | 6/19/2026, 8:45:12 AM | 55.1574 | +0.0307 |
| 60 | 6/18/2026, 8:45:31 AM | 55.1267 | -3.0565 |
| 59 | 6/17/2026, 8:45:21 AM | 58.1832 | +2.8954 |
| 58 | 6/16/2026, 8:45:08 AM | 55.2877 | +6.4515 |
| 57 | 6/15/2026, 8:45:08 AM | 48.8363 | +0.0313 |
| 56 | 6/14/2026, 8:45:40 AM | 48.8050 | +0.3368 |
| 55 | 6/13/2026, 8:45:07 AM | 48.4681 | +4.0619 |
| 54 | 6/12/2026, 8:45:16 AM | 44.4062 | -0.9621 |
| 53 | 6/11/2026, 8:45:21 AM | 45.3683 | -4.1656 |
| 52 | 6/10/2026, 8:45:39 AM | 49.5339 | +2.9415 |
| 51 | 6/9/2026, 8:45:51 AM | 46.5925 | -1.1622 |
| 50 | 6/8/2026, 10:53:03 PM | 47.7547 | -10.9095 |
| 49 | 6/8/2026, 8:45:33 AM | 58.6642 | +0.2348 |
| 48 | 6/7/2026, 8:45:28 AM | 58.4294 | -0.0983 |
| 47 | 6/6/2026, 8:45:28 AM | 58.5277 | -1.5303 |
| 46 | 6/5/2026, 8:45:50 AM | 60.0580 | -0.8809 |
| 45 | 6/4/2026, 7:12:09 PM | 60.9389 | 0.0000 |
| 44 | 6/4/2026, 4:21:20 PM | 60.9389 | 0.0000 |
| 43 | 6/4/2026, 4:20:30 PM | 60.9389 | 0.0000 |
| 42 | 6/4/2026, 4:20:00 PM | 60.9389 | 0.0000 |
| 41 | 6/4/2026, 8:45:38 AM | 60.9389 | -0.7623 |
| 40 | 6/3/2026, 8:45:12 AM | 61.7012 | -0.6564 |
| 39 | 6/2/2026, 8:45:29 AM | 62.3575 | -0.7490 |
| 38 | 6/2/2026, 3:48:31 AM | 63.1065 | 0.0000 |
| 37 | 6/2/2026, 3:13:24 AM | 63.1065 | 0.0000 |
| 36 | 6/2/2026, 3:02:27 AM | 63.1065 | 0.0000 |
| 35 | 6/2/2026, 3:00:47 AM | 63.1065 | +0.2167 |
| 34 | 6/1/2026, 8:45:44 AM | 62.8899 | -0.0380 |
| 33 | 5/31/2026, 8:45:32 AM | 62.9279 | +0.0379 |
| 32 | 5/30/2026, 8:45:25 AM | 62.8900 | 0.0000 |
| 31 | 5/30/2026, 5:04:18 AM | 62.8900 | 0.0000 |
| 30 | 5/30/2026, 4:55:34 AM | 62.8900 | +1.2120 |
| 29 | 5/30/2026, 4:12:34 AM | 61.6780 | 0.0000 |
| 28 | 5/30/2026, 4:12:17 AM | 61.6780 | -0.1415 |
| 27 | 5/29/2026, 8:45:26 AM | 61.8194 | +1.1617 |
| 26 | 5/29/2026, 4:58:23 AM | 60.6577 | -0.2365 |
| 25 | 5/28/2026, 8:45:11 AM | 60.8943 | -0.6388 |
| 24 | 5/27/2026, 8:45:48 AM | 61.5331 | +1.3355 |
| 23 | 5/26/2026, 8:45:23 AM | 60.1976 | -0.0029 |
| 22 | 5/26/2026, 6:48:30 AM | 60.2005 | 0.0000 |
| 21 | 5/26/2026, 6:48:24 AM | 60.2005 | 0.0000 |
| 20 | 5/26/2026, 3:54:57 AM | 60.2005 | 0.0000 |
| 19 | 5/26/2026, 3:54:10 AM | 60.2005 | 0.0000 |
| 18 | 5/26/2026, 3:53:40 AM | 60.2005 | -0.0042 |
| 17 | 5/25/2026, 8:45:24 AM | 60.2047 | -0.0128 |
| 16 | 5/24/2026, 8:45:44 AM | 60.2175 | +0.0534 |
| 15 | 5/23/2026, 8:45:25 AM | 60.1641 | +1.5988 |
| 14 | 5/22/2026, 8:45:18 AM | 58.5653 | +2.4864 |
| 13 | 5/21/2026, 8:45:04 AM | 56.0789 | -0.1039 |
| 12 | 5/20/2026, 8:45:28 AM | 56.1828 | -0.9467 |
| 11 | 5/19/2026, 8:45:34 AM | 57.1295 | -2.4314 |
| 10 | 5/18/2026, 8:45:10 AM | 59.5608 | -0.1979 |
| 9 | 5/18/2026, 5:35:57 AM | 59.7587 | 0.0000 |
| 8 | 5/18/2026, 5:33:39 AM | 59.7587 | 0.0000 |
| 7 | 5/18/2026, 5:33:21 AM | 59.7587 | -0.1099 |
| 6 | 5/17/2026, 11:14:05 PM | 59.8686 | 0.0000 |
| 5 | 5/17/2026, 9:00:56 PM | 59.8686 | 0.0000 |
| 4 | 5/17/2026, 8:45:25 AM | 59.8686 | +0.0640 |
| 3 | 5/16/2026, 8:45:39 AM | 59.8046 | 0.0000 |
| 2 | 5/16/2026, 1:41:49 AM | 59.8046 | +12.6311 |
| 1 | 5/16/2026, 1:39:34 AM | 47.1735 | — |
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/https://www.atlantafed.org/researchhttps://www.clevelandfed.org/our-research/indicators-and-datahttps://data.oecd.org/leadind/consumer-confidence-index-cci.htmhttps://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greedhttps://trends.google.com/Stewards see Palanor Indices tuned to their mandate.
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| 0.00 |
| ▼ 0.080 |
| +0.239 |
| CNN Fear & Greed Index | CNN Business | 20% | positive | level_50_center | ▲ 7.74 | ▲ 21.86 | -0.004 |
| S&P 500 | FRED | 10% | positive | pct_change_12m | ▲ 31.75 | ▲ 181 | +0.104 |
| Bitcoin (USD) | FRED | 10% | positive | pct_change_12m | ▲ 901 | ▲ 574 | -0.160 |
| Gold (Export Price Index, monthly) | FRED | 5% | negative | pct_change_12m | — | — | — | -0.008 |