The Palanor Indices
The instruments Palanor builds to read what the singular series cannot.
Anyone can show you CPI. Anyone can show you the VIX. Palanor builds composites — transparently disclosed, weight-by-weight, with public-source components.
The Palanor Indices
Anyone can show you CPI. Anyone can show you the VIX. Palanor builds composites — transparently disclosed, weight-by-weight, with public-source components.
When the cycle starts breaking. Composite of cohort layoff heat + recession talk + margin guidance direction inverted — early-warning read from what management is saying.
The Layoff Cycle Index is the historical percentile of three lenses on cycle-breaking pressure visible in earnings calls: average layoff/restructuring mentions per call (cohort), average recession/slowdown mentions per call (cohort), and the inverted margin guidance direction (lowered margin guidance lifts the index). High readings mean management is collectively preparing for a downturn — restructuring, lowered guidance, defensive language. Low readings mean management is expanding.
What they start saying before the data turns.
Layoff mentions are the cleanest forward indicator — companies announce restructuring before the BLS payrolls report registers the cuts. Recession talk captures when the consumer-facing companies start naming the slowdown. Margin guidance lowered (inverted = positive contribution to the index) captures the financial signal — the cycle breaks when margins compress.
Late 2022 — index reads ELEVATED as tech layoffs accelerate and consumer companies cite trading-down. Q1 2024 — index settles into WATCHFUL. Late 2025 — index begins rising again on renewed AI-driven layoffs across knowledge work.
Read against The Boardroom Index. When Layoff Cycle is rising AND Boardroom is high, management is collectively saying everything is fine while quietly preparing for trouble. That divergence — confidence falling while sentiment stays high — is the most reliable cycle-break signal in the transcript corpus.
Every component, every weight. The 30-day spark shows how the underlying series has moved; the transform column shows how it converts to a comparable scale before weighting. Direction indicates whether rising values raise or lower the index.
| Component | Source | Weight | Direction | Transform | 30d | 24h | 30d Δ | Now contributing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discourse Layoff Heat | Palanor | 40% | positive | zscore_24m | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.178 | |
| Discourse Recession Talk | Palanor | 40% | positive | zscore_24m |
Numen for the public read:
Palanor reads layoff cycle at 58.9 of 100 — modestly above its 24-month neutral. The composite is steady, with the weight of components leaning in one direction.
24-month history of this index. The composite is recomputed daily; values are stored with timestamps.
Y-axis auto-zoomed · data clusters tightly
| # | Computed at | Value | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 7/11/2026, 8:45:41 AM | 58.8687 | -0.0567 |
| 47 | 7/10/2026, 8:45:19 AM | 58.9254 | +0.0047 |
| 46 | 7/9/2026, 8:45:59 AM | 58.9207 | -0.0582 |
| 45 | 7/8/2026, 8:45:58 AM | 58.9789 | -0.0595 |
| 44 | 7/7/2026, 8:45:59 AM | 59.0384 | -0.0141 |
| 43 | 7/6/2026, 8:45:59 AM | 59.0526 | -0.0614 |
| 42 | 7/5/2026, 8:45:59 AM | 59.1140 | -0.0629 |
| 41 | 7/4/2026, 8:45:59 AM | 59.1769 | -0.0643 |
| 40 | 7/3/2026, 8:45:59 AM | 59.2412 | -0.0659 |
| 39 | 7/2/2026, 8:45:59 AM | 59.3071 | -0.0675 |
| 38 | 7/1/2026, 8:45:40 AM | 59.3746 | -0.0692 |
| 37 | 6/30/2026, 8:45:42 AM | 59.4438 | +3.2033 |
| 36 | 6/29/2026, 8:45:56 AM | 56.2406 | -0.0587 |
| 35 | 6/28/2026, 8:45:56 AM | 56.2993 | -0.0605 |
| 34 | 6/27/2026, 8:45:55 AM | 56.3598 | -0.0624 |
| 33 | 6/26/2026, 8:45:55 AM | 56.4223 | -0.0644 |
| 32 | 6/25/2026, 8:45:34 AM | 56.4867 | -0.0665 |
| 31 | 6/24/2026, 8:45:35 AM | 56.5531 | -0.0687 |
| 30 | 6/23/2026, 8:45:09 AM | 56.6219 | -4.6839 |
| 29 | 6/22/2026, 8:45:10 AM | 61.3057 | +8.7591 |
| 28 | 6/21/2026, 8:45:12 AM | 52.5466 | -0.0182 |
| 27 | 6/20/2026, 8:45:17 AM | 52.5648 | -0.0186 |
| 26 | 6/19/2026, 8:45:17 AM | 52.5834 | -0.0190 |
| 25 | 6/18/2026, 8:45:37 AM | 52.6024 | -6.4054 |
| 24 | 6/17/2026, 8:45:28 AM | 59.0077 | -0.0738 |
| 23 | 6/16/2026, 8:45:14 AM | 59.0816 | -0.0759 |
| 22 | 6/15/2026, 8:45:15 AM | 59.1575 | -0.0781 |
| 21 | 6/14/2026, 8:45:46 AM | 59.2356 | -0.0804 |
| 20 | 6/13/2026, 8:45:13 AM | 59.3160 | -0.0828 |
| 19 | 6/12/2026, 8:45:22 AM | 59.3988 | -0.0854 |
| 18 | 6/11/2026, 8:45:28 AM | 59.4842 | -0.0881 |
| 17 | 6/10/2026, 8:45:44 AM | 59.5723 | -0.0910 |
| 16 | 6/9/2026, 8:45:56 AM | 59.6633 | -0.3119 |
| 15 | 6/8/2026, 10:53:09 PM | 59.9752 | 0.0000 |
| 14 | 6/8/2026, 8:45:39 AM | 59.9752 | -0.1035 |
| 13 | 6/7/2026, 8:45:35 AM | 60.0787 | -0.1074 |
| 12 | 6/6/2026, 8:45:34 AM | 60.1861 | -0.1116 |
| 11 | 6/5/2026, 8:45:57 AM | 60.2977 | +2.5797 |
| 10 | 6/4/2026, 7:12:15 PM | 57.7179 | 0.0000 |
| 9 | 6/4/2026, 4:21:27 PM | 57.7179 | 0.0000 |
| 8 | 6/4/2026, 4:20:35 PM | 57.7179 | 0.0000 |
| 7 | 6/4/2026, 4:20:09 PM | 57.7179 | 0.0000 |
| 6 | 6/4/2026, 8:45:44 AM | 57.7179 | -0.1119 |
| 5 | 6/3/2026, 8:45:18 AM | 57.8299 | -0.1165 |
| 4 | 6/2/2026, 8:45:35 AM | 57.9463 | -0.1213 |
| 3 | 6/2/2026, 3:48:37 AM | 58.0677 | 0.0000 |
| 2 | 6/2/2026, 3:13:30 AM | 58.0677 | 0.0000 |
| 1 | 6/2/2026, 3:02:33 AM | 58.0677 | — |
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/https://www.atlantafed.org/researchhttps://www.clevelandfed.org/our-research/indicators-and-datahttps://data.oecd.org/leadind/consumer-confidence-index-cci.htmhttps://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greedhttps://trends.google.com/Stewards see Palanor Indices tuned to their mandate.
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| 0.00 |
| 0.00 |
| +0.019 |
| Discourse Capex Guidance (Net) | Palanor | 20% | negative | zscore_24m | 0.00 | ▼ 0.068 | +0.158 |