The Palanor Indices
The instruments Palanor builds to read what the singular series cannot.
Anyone can show you CPI. Anyone can show you the VIX. Palanor builds composites — transparently disclosed, weight-by-weight, with public-source components.
The Palanor Indices
Anyone can show you CPI. Anyone can show you the VIX. Palanor builds composites — transparently disclosed, weight-by-weight, with public-source components.
A composite read of market-priced geopolitical stress — oils, gold, dollar, vol, defense production, and natural gas. High = high stress.
Palanor: Geopolitical Stress is a single 0–100 read of how the world's tensions are being priced into commodity, currency, and volatility markets. High readings indicate the market is paying up for safety, fuel, and defense exposure; low readings indicate the market sees the world as comparatively settled.
Brent and WTI carry the largest combined weight because oil is the single most consequential geopolitical-risk-priced commodity. Gold is the parallel safe-haven trade. The dollar (DXY) gains weight in geopolitical stress regimes as global capital flows toward US Treasuries. VIX reflects the equity-market reaction. Defense industrial production — used here as a proxy for defense-sector activity, see caveats — captures the supply-side response. Natural gas adds European-specific geopolitical-energy exposure.
All components are positive-signed — every one rises when stress rises. Z-scores over 24 months, with the defense industrial-production series using 12-month percent change because it is a level index. Weighted sum maps through a logistic to 0–100, where higher = higher stress.
Readings above 65 indicate the market is pricing meaningful geopolitical risk. Readings below 35 indicate a comparatively settled tape. The index is most informative in inflections: spikes from a quiet regime tend to lead the news cycle by hours-to-days as energy and gold markets react first.
This index measures *market-priced* geopolitical stress, not the underlying event intensity. A regime in which everyone agrees the world is dangerous, but markets have already adjusted, will read as low. The defense component is industrial production, not the S&P Aerospace & Defense equity index — Palanor's spec called for the latter, but the closest current FRED series (M1109BUSM293NNBR) is a discontinued NBER 1914–1968 series and could not be used. Industrial production captures the supply-side activity, but not the equity-flow narrative. When Palanor's World Map event layer ships, this index will be redesigned to consume event data directly.
Every component, every weight. The 30-day spark shows how the underlying series has moved; the transform column shows how it converts to a comparable scale before weighting. Direction indicates whether rising values raise or lower the index.
| Component | Source | Weight | Direction | Transform | 30d | 24h | 30d Δ | Now contributing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude Oil | FRED | 25% | positive | zscore_24m | ▲ 0.880 | ▼ 23.28 | -0.128 | |
| WTI Crude Oil | FRED | 15% | positive | zscore_24m |
Numen for the public read:
Palanor reads geopolitical stress at 57.2 of 100 — modestly above its 24-month neutral. The composite is steady, with the weight of components leaning in one direction.
24-month history of this index. The composite is recomputed daily; values are stored with timestamps.
| # | Computed at | Value | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 83 | 7/11/2026, 8:45:33 AM | 57.2265 | -0.5509 |
| 82 | 7/10/2026, 8:45:11 AM | 57.7774 | +0.4111 |
| 81 | 7/9/2026, 8:45:51 AM | 57.3663 | -1.2670 |
| 80 | 7/8/2026, 8:45:51 AM | 58.6333 | -0.1232 |
| 79 | 7/7/2026, 8:45:51 AM | 58.7566 | -0.5515 |
| 78 | 7/6/2026, 8:45:52 AM | 59.3081 | -0.0022 |
| 77 | 7/5/2026, 8:45:51 AM | 59.3102 | -0.0045 |
| 76 | 7/4/2026, 8:45:52 AM | 59.3147 | -0.0032 |
| 75 | 7/3/2026, 8:45:51 AM | 59.3180 | +0.0709 |
| 74 | 7/2/2026, 8:45:51 AM | 59.2470 | -4.4416 |
| 73 | 7/1/2026, 8:45:33 AM | 63.6886 | +0.1688 |
| 72 | 6/30/2026, 8:45:33 AM | 63.5198 | +0.1351 |
| 71 | 6/29/2026, 8:45:48 AM | 63.3846 | +0.0019 |
| 70 | 6/28/2026, 8:45:49 AM | 63.3828 | +0.0002 |
| 69 | 6/27/2026, 8:45:48 AM | 63.3826 | +0.1231 |
| 68 | 6/26/2026, 8:45:48 AM | 63.2595 | -0.4249 |
| 67 | 6/25/2026, 8:45:26 AM | 63.6843 | -3.5171 |
| 66 | 6/24/2026, 8:45:27 AM | 67.2015 | +0.2267 |
| 65 | 6/23/2026, 8:45:02 AM | 66.9748 | -0.1322 |
| 64 | 6/22/2026, 8:45:04 AM | 67.1070 | -0.0052 |
| 63 | 6/21/2026, 8:45:05 AM | 67.1121 | -0.0034 |
| 62 | 6/20/2026, 8:45:11 AM | 67.1155 | -0.0022 |
| 61 | 6/19/2026, 8:45:11 AM | 67.1177 | +0.9540 |
| 60 | 6/18/2026, 8:45:31 AM | 66.1637 | -7.5327 |
| 59 | 6/17/2026, 8:45:20 AM | 73.6964 | -0.4539 |
| 58 | 6/16/2026, 8:45:08 AM | 74.1503 | -0.7964 |
| 57 | 6/15/2026, 8:45:08 AM | 74.9467 | -0.0098 |
| 56 | 6/14/2026, 8:45:39 AM | 74.9565 | -0.0082 |
| 55 | 6/13/2026, 8:45:07 AM | 74.9646 | -1.0866 |
| 54 | 6/12/2026, 8:45:16 AM | 76.0512 | +0.9092 |
| 53 | 6/11/2026, 8:45:21 AM | 75.1420 | -0.3427 |
| 52 | 6/10/2026, 8:45:36 AM | 75.4847 | -0.9978 |
| 51 | 6/9/2026, 8:45:50 AM | 76.4825 | +0.7268 |
| 50 | 6/8/2026, 10:53:02 PM | 75.7557 | +2.4282 |
| 49 | 6/8/2026, 8:45:33 AM | 73.3275 | -0.0057 |
| 48 | 6/7/2026, 8:45:28 AM | 73.3333 | -0.0061 |
| 47 | 6/6/2026, 8:45:28 AM | 73.3393 | -0.2721 |
| 46 | 6/5/2026, 8:45:49 AM | 73.6115 | +0.1191 |
| 45 | 6/4/2026, 7:12:09 PM | 73.4924 | 0.0000 |
| 44 | 6/4/2026, 4:21:20 PM | 73.4924 | 0.0000 |
| 43 | 6/4/2026, 4:20:29 PM | 73.4924 | 0.0000 |
| 42 | 6/4/2026, 4:19:59 PM | 73.4924 | 0.0000 |
| 41 | 6/4/2026, 8:45:38 AM | 73.4924 | -2.2094 |
| 40 | 6/3/2026, 8:45:12 AM | 75.7018 | +0.1156 |
| 39 | 6/2/2026, 8:45:29 AM | 75.5863 | -0.2298 |
| 38 | 6/2/2026, 3:48:31 AM | 75.8160 | 0.0000 |
| 37 | 6/2/2026, 3:13:24 AM | 75.8160 | 0.0000 |
| 36 | 6/2/2026, 3:02:27 AM | 75.8160 | 0.0000 |
| 35 | 6/2/2026, 3:00:47 AM | 75.8160 | -0.0023 |
| 34 | 6/1/2026, 8:45:44 AM | 75.8184 | 0.0000 |
| 33 | 5/31/2026, 8:45:32 AM | 75.8184 | -0.4063 |
| 32 | 5/30/2026, 8:45:25 AM | 76.2246 | 0.0000 |
| 31 | 5/30/2026, 5:04:18 AM | 76.2246 | 0.0000 |
| 30 | 5/30/2026, 4:55:33 AM | 76.2246 | -0.2066 |
| 29 | 5/30/2026, 4:12:33 AM | 76.4313 | 0.0000 |
| 28 | 5/30/2026, 4:12:17 AM | 76.4313 | +0.0075 |
| 27 | 5/29/2026, 8:45:26 AM | 76.4238 | -6.6784 |
| 26 | 5/29/2026, 4:58:23 AM | 83.1022 | +0.0013 |
| 25 | 5/28/2026, 8:45:11 AM | 83.1010 | +0.1239 |
| 24 | 5/27/2026, 8:45:48 AM | 82.9770 | -0.0327 |
| 23 | 5/26/2026, 8:45:24 AM | 83.0098 | 0.0000 |
| 22 | 5/26/2026, 6:48:30 AM | 83.0098 | 0.0000 |
| 21 | 5/26/2026, 6:48:24 AM | 83.0098 | 0.0000 |
| 20 | 5/26/2026, 3:54:57 AM | 83.0098 | 0.0000 |
| 19 | 5/26/2026, 3:54:11 AM | 83.0098 | 0.0000 |
| 18 | 5/26/2026, 3:53:41 AM | 83.0098 | +0.0045 |
| 17 | 5/25/2026, 8:45:25 AM | 83.0053 | +0.0012 |
| 16 | 5/24/2026, 8:45:44 AM | 83.0041 | +0.0035 |
| 15 | 5/23/2026, 8:45:25 AM | 83.0006 | -0.1973 |
| 14 | 5/22/2026, 8:45:18 AM | 83.1979 | -0.1791 |
| 13 | 5/21/2026, 8:45:05 AM | 83.3770 | +3.5759 |
| 12 | 5/20/2026, 8:45:29 AM | 79.8011 | -0.2041 |
| 11 | 5/19/2026, 8:45:34 AM | 80.0053 | +1.1086 |
| 10 | 5/18/2026, 8:45:11 AM | 78.8967 | 0.0000 |
| 9 | 5/18/2026, 5:35:58 AM | 78.8967 | 0.0000 |
| 8 | 5/18/2026, 5:33:39 AM | 78.8967 | 0.0000 |
| 7 | 5/18/2026, 5:33:21 AM | 78.8967 | +0.0124 |
| 6 | 5/17/2026, 11:14:06 PM | 78.8842 | 0.0000 |
| 5 | 5/17/2026, 9:00:57 PM | 78.8842 | 0.0000 |
| 4 | 5/17/2026, 8:45:25 AM | 78.8842 | +0.0147 |
| 3 | 5/16/2026, 8:45:40 AM | 78.8695 | 0.0000 |
| 2 | 5/16/2026, 1:41:49 AM | 78.8695 | -12.7774 |
| 1 | 5/16/2026, 1:39:34 AM | 91.6469 | — |
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/https://www.atlantafed.org/researchhttps://www.clevelandfed.org/our-research/indicators-and-datahttps://data.oecd.org/leadind/consumer-confidence-index-cci.htmhttps://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greedhttps://trends.google.com/Stewards see Palanor Indices tuned to their mandate.
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| ▼ 0.130 |
| ▼ 21.98 |
| -0.033 |
| Gold (Export Price Index, monthly) | FRED | 20% | positive | zscore_24m | — | — | — | +0.289 |
| Trade-Weighted Dollar Index | FRED | 10% | positive | zscore_24m | ▼ 0.455 | ▲ 0.573 | -0.050 |
| VIX | FRED | 10% | positive | zscore_24m | ▼ 1.06 | ▼ 3.60 | -0.056 |
| Defense & Space Industrial Production | FRED | 10% | positive | pct_change_12m | — | — | — | +0.268 |
| Henry Hub Natural Gas | FRED | 10% | positive | zscore_24m | ▼ 0.050 | ▲ 0.130 | +0.002 |