Palanor: US vs China
The relative position of the two largest economies — measured across output, currency, military, and trade partner dominance.
No single number tells the US–China story. GDP nominal favors the US; PPP-adjusted, China has been larger since 2017. Trade-partner dominance has already flipped — China is the top trading partner for roughly 120 countries; the US for roughly 55. Defense spending remains lopsided toward the US, but capital flows and currency posture tell a more nuanced story. This index reads seven dimensions of the relationship. A reading of 0.0 indicates US dominance; 1.0 indicates parity or passed. The components blend slow-moving structural data (annual GDP) with faster signals (currency, capital flows). Note: the trade-partner-dominance component requires World Bank annual data — refreshed yearly. The other components update monthly or daily. The index is most useful as a regime indicator (which decade are we in?) rather than a short-term trade signal.
Components & Weights
Every component, every weight. The 30-day spark shows how the underlying series has moved; the transform column shows how it converts to a comparable scale before weighting. Direction indicates whether rising values raise or lower the index.
| Component | Source | Weight | Direction | Transform | 30d | 24h | 30d Δ | Now contributing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World Bank: US Nominal GDP | Worldbank | 17% | negative | zscore_24m | — | — | — | awaiting data |
| World Bank: China Nominal GDP | Worldbank | 17% | positive | zscore_24m | — | — | — | awaiting data |
| World Bank: US GDP (PPP) | Worldbank | 11% | negative | zscore_24m | — | — | — | awaiting data |
| World Bank: China GDP (PPP) | Worldbank | 11% | positive | zscore_24m | — | — | — | awaiting data |
| USD / CNY | FRED | 17% | negative | zscore_24m | ▼ 0.008 | ▼ 0.028 | +0.762 | |
| Defense & Space Industrial Production | FRED | 11% | negative | zscore_24m | — | — | — | -0.910 |
| SIPRI Global Military Expenditure | Manual Upload | 17% | positive | pct_change_12m | — | — | — | awaiting data |
Awaiting data means the most recent compute did not have a fresh value for that component. The composite re-normalizes around what is present, so the index reading remains meaningful. The component returns the moment its source publishes.
Current Reading
Numen for the public read:
Palanor reads us v china at 46.3 of 100 — close to its 24-month neutral. The composite shows no decisive lean. This reading is computed across 2 of 7 components; the remainder are awaiting data.
Historical
24-month history of this index. The composite is recomputed daily; values are stored with timestamps.
Y-axis auto-zoomed · data clusters tightly
Raw readings · 10 rows ▾
| # | Computed at | Value | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 5/27/2026, 8:45:51 AM | 46.3038 | +9.1088 |
| 9 | 5/26/2026, 8:45:27 AM | 37.1951 | 0.0000 |
| 8 | 5/26/2026, 6:48:32 AM | 37.1951 | 0.0000 |
| 7 | 5/26/2026, 6:48:28 AM | 37.1951 | 0.0000 |
| 6 | 5/26/2026, 3:55:00 AM | 37.1951 | 0.0000 |
| 5 | 5/26/2026, 3:54:13 AM | 37.1951 | 0.0000 |
| 4 | 5/26/2026, 3:53:43 AM | 37.1951 | +0.0049 |
| 3 | 5/25/2026, 8:45:27 AM | 37.1902 | 0.0000 |
| 2 | 5/24/2026, 8:45:46 AM | 37.1902 | 0.0000 |
| 1 | 5/23/2026, 8:45:28 AM | 37.1902 | — |
References
- FRED — Federal Reserve Economic Data, St. Louis Fed.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/ - Atlanta Fed — Wage Growth Tracker and Sticky-Price CPI.
https://www.atlantafed.org/research - Cleveland Fed — Model-based inflation expectations.
https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-research/indicators-and-data - OECD — Composite Consumer Confidence Indicator.
https://data.oecd.org/leadind/consumer-confidence-index-cci.htm - CNN Business — Fear & Greed Index.
https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed - Google Trends — interest over time.
https://trends.google.com/
Stewards see Palanor Indices tuned to their mandate.
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