Palanor: AI Substitution
How fast the open-weight, local, and substitution-coded slice of AI tooling is taking attention from the proprietary leaders.
What this index reads
AI Substitution composites four Google Trends series that, together, read the cultural turn from "GPT or nothing" to a more pluralistic AI tooling stack. When these terms move together, stewards see search behavior repricing the platforms before the analysts catch up.
How to read movement
Elevated = the substitution thesis is in the air; consumers and engineers are looking. Watch this against Soren's AI Margin Compression Index — they answer different questions but should rhyme when the open-weight inflection actually arrives.
Components & Weights
Every component, every weight. The 30-day spark shows how the underlying series has moved; the transform column shows how it converts to a comparable scale before weighting. Direction indicates whether rising values raise or lower the index.
| Component | Source | Weight | Direction | Transform | 30d | 24h | 30d Δ | Now contributing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open-source LLM — interest | Google Trends | 35% | positive | zscore_24m | 0.00 | ▼ 20.00 | -0.180 | |
| Local LLM — interest | Google Trends | 20% | positive | zscore_24m | ▲ 1.00 | ▼ 26.00 | -0.003 | |
| ChatGPT alternatives — interest | Google Trends | 25% | positive | zscore_24m | ▼ 3.00 | ▼ 21.00 | -0.410 | |
| Vibe coding — interest | Google Trends | 20% | positive | zscore_24m | ▼ 7.00 | ▼ 20.00 | -0.126 |
Current Reading
Numen for the public read:
Palanor reads ai substitution at 32.8 of 100 — modestly below its 24-month neutral. The composite is softening, with the weight of components leaning the other way.
Historical
24-month history of this index. The composite is recomputed daily; values are stored with timestamps.
Y-axis auto-zoomed · data clusters tightly
Raw readings · 4 rows ▾
| # | Computed at | Value | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 5/27/2026, 8:45:51 AM | 32.7568 | +0.1997 |
| 3 | 5/26/2026, 8:45:27 AM | 32.5571 | -0.7621 |
| 2 | 5/26/2026, 6:48:32 AM | 33.3192 | 0.0000 |
| 1 | 5/26/2026, 6:48:28 AM | 33.3192 | — |
References
- FRED — Federal Reserve Economic Data, St. Louis Fed.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/ - Atlanta Fed — Wage Growth Tracker and Sticky-Price CPI.
https://www.atlantafed.org/research - Cleveland Fed — Model-based inflation expectations.
https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-research/indicators-and-data - OECD — Composite Consumer Confidence Indicator.
https://data.oecd.org/leadind/consumer-confidence-index-cci.htm - CNN Business — Fear & Greed Index.
https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed - Google Trends — interest over time.
https://trends.google.com/
Stewards see Palanor Indices tuned to their mandate.
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