The instruments Palanor builds to read what the singular series cannot.

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← The Palanor Indices

The Discourse Index

Where the room is right now. The four-axis composite of how the most-recent quarterly earnings calls across the scored universe sound — sentiment + confidence + bull-bear balance + revision pressure, in one number 0–100.

Current reading

83.0

of 100 · Elevated

Last computed

2026-07-11 08:45 UTC

4 of 4 components used

What it measures

The Discourse Index condenses every signal the Palanor Discourse engine produces into one read. It blends the average sentiment of the most-recent quarterly earnings call across the scored universe (weight 40%), the average confidence in management language (weight 20%), the count ratio of bullish entities to bearish entities (weight 20%), and the aggregate revenue-guidance revision pressure across the corpus (weight 20%). All four feed a single 0–100 sigmoid where 50 is the long-run neutral state. The number answers a question every steward asks at the start of earnings season: where is the room sitting right now?

Why these components

Sentiment alone is too thin — markets move on a confident bull and a hesitant bull differently. So we weight confidence in. Two firms reporting at 0.7 sentiment with 0.85 confidence is a different reality than two firms at 0.7 sentiment with 0.55 confidence. The bull-bear ratio captures distribution rather than mean — a 0.6 average with 90% of firms above 0.65 is a different signal than 0.6 with 30% above. And revision pressure (the sum of revenue_guidance_pp) catches what management is actually changing forward, not just how they sound talking about the trailing quarter.

Sentiment alone is too thin. Confidence weights how much the sentiment means.

How to read it

Above 65 — the room is collectively bullish, confident, and revising upward. This is the late-cycle expansion state. Between 45 and 65 — mixed signals, transitional, or split by sector. Below 45 — pessimistic with low confidence and downward revisions; the recession-onset signature. The index updates daily at 09:30 UTC, but the underlying transcripts only refresh quarterly, so day-to-day movement reflects new transcripts arriving during the earnings-season window rather than the same data being rescored.

What it does not say

The Discourse Index is a public-corpus consensus read, not a prediction. Companies often sound confident going into a downturn (the surprise is what makes it a downturn). The index is most useful as a regime indicator paired with prediction-market readings and signal-watch data — when The Discourse Index is high but signal data is rolling over, that's the disconnect that signals the regime shift before earnings-call language catches up.

Components & Weights

Every component, every weight. The 30-day spark shows how the underlying series has moved; the transform column shows how it converts to a comparable scale before weighting. Direction indicates whether rising values raise or lower the index.

Component	Source	Weight	Direction	Transform	30d	24h	30d Δ	Now contributing
Public Sentiment (Discourse)	Palanor	40%	positive	level		▲ 0.075	▲ 0.113	+0.711
Public Confidence (Discourse)	Palanor	20%	positive	level

Current Reading

Value

83.0

Raw composite

1.587

Scale

sigmoid_0_100

Numen for the public read:

Palanor reads discourse index as elevated at 83.0 of 100 — well above its 24-month neutral. The composite is leaning into the regime, not against it.

Historical

24-month history of this index. The composite is recomputed daily; values are stored with timestamps.

40 readings · 38 days · range 76.83 — 83.026/4/2026 → 7/11/2026

Y-axis auto-zoomed · data clusters tightly

Download

Raw readings · 40 rows ▾

#	Computed at	Value	Δ
40	7/11/2026, 8:45:42 AM	83.0214	+0.0952
39	7/10/2026, 8:45:20 AM	82.9263	+0.0961
38	7/9/2026, 8:45:59 AM	82.8302	+0.0962
37	7/8/2026, 8:45:59 AM	82.7340	+0.0759
36	7/7/2026, 8:46:00 AM	82.6581	+0.0748
35	7/6/2026, 8:46:00 AM	82.5833	+0.0886
34	7/5/2026, 8:45:59 AM	82.4948	+0.0888
33	7/4/2026, 8:46:00 AM	82.4060	+0.0890
32	7/3/2026, 8:46:00 AM	82.3170	+0.0893
31	7/2/2026, 8:46:00 AM	82.2277	+0.1022
30	7/1/2026, 8:45:41 AM	82.1254	+0.1045
29	6/30/2026, 8:45:43 AM	82.0209	+0.1073
28	6/29/2026, 8:45:56 AM	81.9136	+0.0773
27	6/28/2026, 8:45:57 AM	81.8363	+0.0777
26	6/27/2026, 8:45:55 AM	81.7586	+0.0800
25	6/26/2026, 8:45:56 AM	81.6786	+0.0868
24	6/25/2026, 8:45:35 AM	81.5918	+0.1037
23	6/24/2026, 8:45:36 AM	81.4881	+0.1513
22	6/23/2026, 8:45:10 AM	81.3368	+0.4299
21	6/22/2026, 8:45:11 AM	80.9070	+0.0664
20	6/21/2026, 8:45:13 AM	80.8405	+0.1916
19	6/20/2026, 8:45:18 AM	80.6489	+0.2164
18	6/19/2026, 8:45:18 AM	80.4326	+0.2206
17	6/18/2026, 8:45:38 AM	80.2120	+0.2248
16	6/17/2026, 8:45:29 AM	79.9872	+0.2299
15	6/16/2026, 8:45:15 AM	79.7573	+0.2343
14	6/15/2026, 8:45:16 AM	79.5229	+0.2388
13	6/14/2026, 8:45:46 AM	79.2842	+0.2392
12	6/13/2026, 8:45:14 AM	79.0450	+0.2432
11	6/12/2026, 8:45:23 AM	78.8018	+0.2470
10	6/11/2026, 8:45:29 AM	78.5548	+0.2502
9	6/10/2026, 8:45:45 AM	78.3046	+0.4848
8	6/9/2026, 8:45:57 AM	77.8198	+0.2386
7	6/8/2026, 10:53:10 PM	77.5812	0.0000
6	6/8/2026, 8:45:40 AM	77.5812	+0.2300
5	6/7/2026, 8:45:36 AM	77.3513	+0.2154
4	6/6/2026, 8:45:35 AM	77.1358	+0.1858
3	6/5/2026, 8:45:58 AM	76.9500	+0.1225
2	6/4/2026, 7:12:16 PM	76.8276	0.0000
1	6/4/2026, 4:21:28 PM	76.8276	—

References

FRED — Federal Reserve Economic Data, St. Louis Fed. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/
Atlanta Fed — Wage Growth Tracker and Sticky-Price CPI. https://www.atlantafed.org/research
Cleveland Fed — Model-based inflation expectations. https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-research/indicators-and-data
OECD — Composite Consumer Confidence Indicator. https://data.oecd.org/leadind/consumer-confidence-index-cci.htm
CNN Business — Fear & Greed Index. https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed
Google Trends — interest over time. https://trends.google.com/

Stewards see Palanor Indices tuned to their mandate.

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