The Palanor Indices
The instruments Palanor builds to read what the singular series cannot.
Anyone can show you CPI. Anyone can show you the VIX. Palanor builds composites — transparently disclosed, weight-by-weight, with public-source components.
The Palanor Indices
Anyone can show you CPI. Anyone can show you the VIX. Palanor builds composites — transparently disclosed, weight-by-weight, with public-source components.
How much capital is being returned to shareholders. Composite of buyback mentions + revenue guidance + leader confidence — read from earnings transcripts.
The Capital Return Index is the historical z-score of three lenses on whether public companies are leaning into capital return: average buyback mentions per call (the cleanest single indicator of shareholder-return posture), net revenue guidance direction (firms raising guidance can afford to return capital), and average leader confidence (firms that hedge are not buying back stock). High readings mean buybacks are the dominant capital allocation story. Low readings mean capital is being held back for opex, inventory, or balance-sheet repair.
Where the money is going, said in one number.
Buyback announcements are the surface — what management commits to publicly. Revenue guidance direction is the ability — firms that are raising the top line have the cash flow to deploy. Confidence is the willingness — firms that hedge every forward statement do not authorize large repurchase programs. The composite separates real capital-return regimes from the rhetorical kind.
Read against the Mania Index and the Boardroom Index. When Capital Return is high AND Mania is high, companies are buying back stock at peak multiples — historically a late-cycle signal. When Capital Return is high AND Mania is low, that is buybacks done well — concentrating ownership at depressed prices. The combination matters more than the absolute level.
The index does not measure dividend payouts (we do not have aggregate dividend signal yet). Buybacks are the marginal capital-return decision in modern US markets, so the gap is small but real.
Every component, every weight. The 30-day spark shows how the underlying series has moved; the transform column shows how it converts to a comparable scale before weighting. Direction indicates whether rising values raise or lower the index.
| Component | Source | Weight | Direction | Transform | 30d | 24h | 30d Δ | Now contributing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discourse Buyback Intensity | Palanor | 50% | positive | zscore_24m | 0.00 | ▼ 0.900 | +0.278 | |
| Discourse Revenue Guidance (Net) | Palanor | 30% | positive | zscore_24m |
Numen for the public read:
Palanor reads capital return at 49.4 of 100 — close to its 24-month neutral. The composite shows no decisive lean.
24-month history of this index. The composite is recomputed daily; values are stored with timestamps.
| # | Computed at | Value | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 7/11/2026, 8:45:42 AM | 49.3727 | +0.0053 |
| 46 | 7/10/2026, 8:45:20 AM | 49.3674 | +0.0054 |
| 45 | 7/9/2026, 8:45:59 AM | 49.3620 | +0.0056 |
| 44 | 7/8/2026, 8:45:59 AM | 49.3564 | +0.0057 |
| 43 | 7/7/2026, 8:46:00 AM | 49.3507 | -0.6974 |
| 42 | 7/6/2026, 8:46:00 AM | 50.0481 | -0.0002 |
| 41 | 7/5/2026, 8:45:59 AM | 50.0483 | -0.0002 |
| 40 | 7/4/2026, 8:46:00 AM | 50.0486 | -0.0002 |
| 39 | 7/3/2026, 8:46:00 AM | 50.0488 | -0.2903 |
| 38 | 7/2/2026, 8:45:59 AM | 50.3391 | -0.0024 |
| 37 | 7/1/2026, 8:45:41 AM | 50.3415 | -0.0985 |
| 36 | 6/30/2026, 8:45:42 AM | 50.4399 | +0.2624 |
| 35 | 6/29/2026, 8:45:56 AM | 50.1775 | -0.0009 |
| 34 | 6/28/2026, 8:45:57 AM | 50.1784 | -0.0009 |
| 33 | 6/27/2026, 8:45:55 AM | 50.1793 | -0.0009 |
| 32 | 6/26/2026, 8:45:56 AM | 50.1802 | -0.0009 |
| 31 | 6/25/2026, 8:45:35 AM | 50.1811 | +3.0434 |
| 30 | 6/24/2026, 8:45:36 AM | 47.1377 | +0.0247 |
| 29 | 6/23/2026, 8:45:10 AM | 47.1130 | -0.7008 |
| 28 | 6/22/2026, 8:45:11 AM | 47.8138 | -28.3310 |
| 27 | 6/21/2026, 8:45:13 AM | 76.1448 | -0.6160 |
| 26 | 6/20/2026, 8:45:18 AM | 76.7608 | -0.6628 |
| 25 | 6/19/2026, 8:45:18 AM | 77.4236 | -0.7159 |
| 24 | 6/18/2026, 8:45:38 AM | 78.1394 | +0.9948 |
| 23 | 6/17/2026, 8:45:29 AM | 77.1446 | -0.8377 |
| 22 | 6/16/2026, 8:45:15 AM | 77.9824 | -0.9185 |
| 21 | 6/15/2026, 8:45:15 AM | 78.9008 | -3.8887 |
| 20 | 6/14/2026, 8:45:46 AM | 82.7895 | -1.4086 |
| 19 | 6/13/2026, 8:45:14 AM | 84.1981 | -1.6045 |
| 18 | 6/12/2026, 8:45:23 AM | 85.8026 | -1.1041 |
| 17 | 6/11/2026, 8:45:29 AM | 86.9067 | +0.0030 |
| 16 | 6/10/2026, 8:45:44 AM | 86.9037 | +0.0031 |
| 15 | 6/9/2026, 8:45:57 AM | 86.9006 | -0.5277 |
| 14 | 6/8/2026, 10:53:10 PM | 87.4283 | 0.0000 |
| 13 | 6/8/2026, 8:45:40 AM | 87.4283 | +0.0004 |
| 12 | 6/7/2026, 8:45:36 AM | 87.4280 | +0.0004 |
| 11 | 6/6/2026, 8:45:35 AM | 87.4276 | +0.0004 |
| 10 | 6/5/2026, 8:45:58 AM | 87.4272 | +29.3678 |
| 9 | 6/4/2026, 7:12:16 PM | 58.0594 | 0.0000 |
| 8 | 6/4/2026, 4:21:28 PM | 58.0594 | 0.0000 |
| 7 | 6/4/2026, 4:20:36 PM | 58.0594 | 0.0000 |
| 6 | 6/4/2026, 4:20:10 PM | 58.0594 | 0.0000 |
| 5 | 6/4/2026, 8:45:45 AM | 58.0594 | +4.0581 |
| 4 | 6/3/2026, 8:45:19 AM | 54.0013 | +1.2427 |
| 3 | 6/2/2026, 8:45:36 AM | 52.7586 | +2.2749 |
| 2 | 6/2/2026, 3:48:37 AM | 50.4837 | +15.2079 |
| 1 | 6/2/2026, 3:13:30 AM | 35.2758 | — |
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/https://www.atlantafed.org/researchhttps://www.clevelandfed.org/our-research/indicators-and-datahttps://data.oecd.org/leadind/consumer-confidence-index-cci.htmhttps://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greedhttps://trends.google.com/Stewards see Palanor Indices tuned to their mandate.
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| 0.00 |
| ▼ 0.163 |
| -0.198 |
| Discourse Leader Confidence | Palanor | 20% | positive | zscore_24m | 0.00 | ▼ 0.035 | -0.105 |