The Palanor Indices
The instruments Palanor builds to read what the singular series cannot.
Anyone can show you CPI. Anyone can show you the VIX. Palanor builds composites — transparently disclosed, weight-by-weight, with public-source components.
The Palanor Indices
Anyone can show you CPI. Anyone can show you the VIX. Palanor builds composites — transparently disclosed, weight-by-weight, with public-source components.
A meta-composite tuned to long-horizon operators — how confident the people who carry generational responsibility should reasonably feel about the next twelve months.
The Steward Confidence Index is a meta-composite — it reads what the other indices read, plus the underlying signal substrate, and produces a single number tuned to the question a long-horizon operator actually asks: how confident should I reasonably feel about the next twelve months. The composition includes both real-economy strength and forward-uncertainty signals; the latter are sign-flipped so they reduce confidence.
Real-economy strength (OECD CCI, ISM Services, industrial production, JOLTS) sets the floor — when these are expanding, the steward has reason for confidence. Forward-uncertainty signals (VIX, high-yield spreads, credit card delinquency) reduce confidence when they rise — they are the warnings the operator must heed. Fear & Greed enters as a small positive component, because broad-market risk appetite is itself part of the steward operating environment.
Mix of z-scores and 12-month percentage changes. Negative-direction components sign-flip. Weighted sum, logistic scaling. Reading bands designed for long-horizon framing: 0–25 brace, 25–50 watch carefully, 50–75 normal confidence, 75–100 the conditions for confident long-horizon action are present.
This is the index meant to be read alongside Posture — the steward subjective composite — as a check. When Posture is high and Steward Confidence is low, you are confident for reasons the macro does not yet support. When Posture is low and Steward Confidence is high, you may be discounting your own conditions more than the data supports. Either divergence is informative.
The index is a US-conditions read. Family offices and institutions with non-US exposure should weight it accordingly. The index does not incorporate the operator own business signals — that integration happens in Posture, not here.
Every component, every weight. The 30-day spark shows how the underlying series has moved; the transform column shows how it converts to a comparable scale before weighting. Direction indicates whether rising values raise or lower the index.
| Component | Source | Weight | Direction | Transform | 30d | 24h | 30d Δ | Now contributing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OECD Consumer Confidence (US, normalized) | FRED | 13% | positive | zscore_24m | — | — | — | awaiting data |
| ISM Services PMI (proxy) | FRED | 15% | positive | zscore_24m | — | — | — | +0.301 |
Numen for the public read:
Palanor reads steward confidence as elevated at 75.1 of 100 — well above its 24-month neutral. The composite is leaning into the regime, not against it. This reading is computed across 8 of 9 components; the remainder are awaiting data.
24-month history of this index. The composite is recomputed daily; values are stored with timestamps.
Y-axis auto-zoomed · data clusters tightly
| # | Computed at | Value | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 79 | 7/11/2026, 8:45:36 AM | 75.0704 | +0.8733 |
| 78 | 7/10/2026, 8:45:14 AM | 74.1970 | -0.5374 |
| 77 | 7/9/2026, 8:45:54 AM | 74.7344 | -0.0429 |
| 76 | 7/8/2026, 8:45:54 AM | 74.7773 | +0.2875 |
| 75 | 7/7/2026, 8:45:55 AM | 74.4898 | +1.3369 |
| 74 | 7/6/2026, 8:45:55 AM | 73.1530 | +0.0040 |
| 73 | 7/5/2026, 8:45:55 AM | 73.1489 | +0.0039 |
| 72 | 7/4/2026, 8:45:55 AM | 73.1451 | -0.0952 |
| 71 | 7/3/2026, 8:45:56 AM | 73.2403 | -0.4319 |
| 70 | 7/2/2026, 8:45:55 AM | 73.6722 | +1.3931 |
| 69 | 7/1/2026, 8:45:36 AM | 72.2791 | +0.2909 |
| 68 | 6/30/2026, 8:45:36 AM | 71.9882 | +0.0110 |
| 67 | 6/29/2026, 8:45:51 AM | 71.9772 | +0.0017 |
| 66 | 6/28/2026, 8:45:52 AM | 71.9755 | +0.0042 |
| 65 | 6/27/2026, 8:45:51 AM | 71.9713 | -0.4240 |
| 64 | 6/26/2026, 8:45:51 AM | 72.3953 | +0.1329 |
| 63 | 6/25/2026, 8:45:30 AM | 72.2624 | -2.2555 |
| 62 | 6/24/2026, 8:45:30 AM | 74.5179 | -0.6235 |
| 61 | 6/23/2026, 8:45:05 AM | 75.1414 | +0.7192 |
| 60 | 6/22/2026, 8:45:07 AM | 74.4222 | +0.0033 |
| 59 | 6/21/2026, 8:45:08 AM | 74.4189 | +0.0043 |
| 58 | 6/20/2026, 8:45:14 AM | 74.4145 | +0.0039 |
| 57 | 6/19/2026, 8:45:14 AM | 74.4106 | -0.4174 |
| 56 | 6/18/2026, 8:45:34 AM | 74.8280 | -0.9845 |
| 55 | 6/17/2026, 8:45:24 AM | 75.8125 | +1.3705 |
| 54 | 6/16/2026, 8:45:11 AM | 74.4420 | +3.0238 |
| 53 | 6/15/2026, 8:45:11 AM | 71.4182 | +0.0038 |
| 52 | 6/14/2026, 8:45:42 AM | 71.4144 | +0.0027 |
| 51 | 6/13/2026, 8:45:10 AM | 71.4117 | +2.1265 |
| 50 | 6/12/2026, 8:45:19 AM | 69.2852 | -1.4341 |
| 49 | 6/11/2026, 8:45:24 AM | 70.7193 | -1.3609 |
| 48 | 6/10/2026, 8:45:41 AM | 72.0802 | +1.7152 |
| 47 | 6/9/2026, 8:45:53 AM | 70.3650 | -0.1533 |
| 46 | 6/8/2026, 10:53:05 PM | 70.5183 | -4.6070 |
| 45 | 6/8/2026, 8:45:36 AM | 75.1254 | +0.0035 |
| 44 | 6/7/2026, 8:45:32 AM | 75.1219 | +0.0035 |
| 43 | 6/6/2026, 8:45:31 AM | 75.1184 | +0.5944 |
| 42 | 6/5/2026, 8:45:53 AM | 74.5240 | -0.5360 |
| 41 | 6/4/2026, 7:12:12 PM | 75.0599 | 0.0000 |
| 40 | 6/4/2026, 4:21:23 PM | 75.0599 | 0.0000 |
| 39 | 6/4/2026, 4:20:33 PM | 75.0599 | 0.0000 |
| 38 | 6/4/2026, 4:20:04 PM | 75.0599 | 0.0000 |
| 37 | 6/4/2026, 8:45:41 AM | 75.0599 | +5.9713 |
| 36 | 6/3/2026, 8:45:15 AM | 69.0886 | -0.1549 |
| 35 | 6/2/2026, 8:45:32 AM | 69.2435 | -0.2851 |
| 34 | 6/2/2026, 3:48:34 AM | 69.5286 | 0.0000 |
| 33 | 6/2/2026, 3:13:27 AM | 69.5286 | 0.0000 |
| 32 | 6/2/2026, 3:02:30 AM | 69.5286 | 0.0000 |
| 31 | 6/2/2026, 3:00:51 AM | 69.5286 | -0.0024 |
| 30 | 6/1/2026, 8:45:47 AM | 69.5311 | 0.0000 |
| 29 | 5/31/2026, 8:45:35 AM | 69.5311 | -0.1262 |
| 28 | 5/30/2026, 8:45:28 AM | 69.6573 | 0.0000 |
| 27 | 5/30/2026, 5:04:21 AM | 69.6573 | 0.0000 |
| 26 | 5/30/2026, 4:55:36 AM | 69.6573 | +0.3138 |
| 25 | 5/30/2026, 4:12:36 AM | 69.3435 | 0.0000 |
| 24 | 5/30/2026, 4:12:20 AM | 69.3435 | -0.0031 |
| 23 | 5/29/2026, 8:45:29 AM | 69.3466 | +0.6303 |
| 22 | 5/29/2026, 4:58:26 AM | 68.7164 | +0.0002 |
| 21 | 5/28/2026, 8:45:13 AM | 68.7161 | -0.1376 |
| 20 | 5/27/2026, 8:45:51 AM | 68.8537 | +0.6723 |
| 19 | 5/26/2026, 8:45:27 AM | 68.1814 | 0.0000 |
| 18 | 5/26/2026, 6:48:32 AM | 68.1814 | 0.0000 |
| 17 | 5/26/2026, 6:48:27 AM | 68.1814 | 0.0000 |
| 16 | 5/26/2026, 3:54:59 AM | 68.1814 | 0.0000 |
| 15 | 5/26/2026, 3:54:13 AM | 68.1814 | 0.0000 |
| 14 | 5/26/2026, 3:53:43 AM | 68.1814 | -0.0005 |
| 13 | 5/25/2026, 8:45:27 AM | 68.1819 | -0.0020 |
| 12 | 5/24/2026, 8:45:46 AM | 68.1839 | -0.0025 |
| 11 | 5/23/2026, 8:45:28 AM | 68.1864 | +0.7771 |
| 10 | 5/22/2026, 8:45:20 AM | 67.4093 | +0.9817 |
| 9 | 5/21/2026, 8:45:07 AM | 66.4276 | -0.4880 |
| 8 | 5/20/2026, 8:45:30 AM | 66.9156 | -0.1167 |
| 7 | 5/19/2026, 8:45:36 AM | 67.0322 | -1.3826 |
| 6 | 5/18/2026, 8:45:12 AM | 68.4148 | 0.0000 |
| 5 | 5/18/2026, 5:36:04 AM | 68.4148 | 0.0000 |
| 4 | 5/18/2026, 5:33:45 AM | 68.4148 | 0.0000 |
| 3 | 5/18/2026, 5:33:28 AM | 68.4148 | +2.0902 |
| 2 | 5/17/2026, 11:14:10 PM | 66.3247 | 0.0000 |
| 1 | 5/17/2026, 9:01:01 PM | 66.3247 | — |
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/https://www.atlantafed.org/researchhttps://www.clevelandfed.org/our-research/indicators-and-datahttps://data.oecd.org/leadind/consumer-confidence-index-cci.htmhttps://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greedhttps://trends.google.com/Stewards see Palanor Indices tuned to their mandate.
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| Industrial Production |
| FRED |
| 13% |
| positive |
| pct_change_12m |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| +0.147 |
| VIX | FRED | 15% | negative | zscore_24m | ▼ 1.06 | ▼ 3.60 | +0.097 |
| High Yield OAS | FRED | 13% | negative | zscore_24m | 0.00 | ▼ 0.080 | +0.145 |
| Credit Card Delinquency Rate | FRED | 9% | negative | zscore_24m | — | — | — | +0.122 |
| JOLTS Job Openings | FRED | 9% | positive | zscore_24m | — | — | — | +0.153 |
| CNN Fear & Greed Index | CNN Business | 6% | positive | level_50_center | ▲ 7.74 | ▲ 21.86 | -0.001 |
| How high will unemployment get before 2030? | Kalshi | 6% | negative | level_50_center | 0.00 | ▲ 0.120 | +0.138 |
Awaiting data means the most recent compute did not have a fresh value for that component. The composite re-normalizes around what is present, so the index reading remains meaningful. The component returns the moment its source publishes.