Palanor: Steward Confidence

Overview

The Steward Confidence Index is a meta-composite — it reads what the other indices read, plus the underlying signal substrate, and produces a single number tuned to the question a long-horizon operator actually asks: how confident should I reasonably feel about the next twelve months. The composition includes both real-economy strength and forward-uncertainty signals; the latter are sign-flipped so they reduce confidence.

Why these components

Real-economy strength (OECD CCI, ISM Services, industrial production, JOLTS) sets the floor — when these are expanding, the steward has reason for confidence. Forward-uncertainty signals (VIX, high-yield spreads, credit card delinquency) reduce confidence when they rise — they are the warnings the operator must heed. Fear & Greed enters as a small positive component, because broad-market risk appetite is itself part of the steward operating environment.

Methodology

Mix of z-scores and 12-month percentage changes. Negative-direction components sign-flip. Weighted sum, logistic scaling. Reading bands designed for long-horizon framing: 0–25 brace, 25–50 watch carefully, 50–75 normal confidence, 75–100 the conditions for confident long-horizon action are present.

Interpretation

This is the index meant to be read alongside Posture — the steward subjective composite — as a check. When Posture is high and Steward Confidence is low, you are confident for reasons the macro does not yet support. When Posture is low and Steward Confidence is high, you may be discounting your own conditions more than the data supports. Either divergence is informative.

Caveats

The index is a US-conditions read. Family offices and institutions with non-US exposure should weight it accordingly. The index does not incorporate the operator own business signals — that integration happens in Posture, not here.

Components & Weights

Every component, every weight. The 30-day spark shows how the underlying series has moved; the transform column shows how it converts to a comparable scale before weighting. Direction indicates whether rising values raise or lower the index.

Awaiting data means the most recent compute did not have a fresh value for that component. The composite re-normalizes around what is present, so the index reading remains meaningful. The component returns the moment its source publishes.

Historical

24-month history of this index. The composite is recomputed daily; values are stored with timestamps.

References

• FRED — Federal Reserve Economic Data, St. Louis Fed. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/
• Atlanta Fed — Wage Growth Tracker and Sticky-Price CPI. https://www.atlantafed.org/research
• Cleveland Fed — Model-based inflation expectations. https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-research/indicators-and-data
• OECD — Composite Consumer Confidence Indicator. https://data.oecd.org/leadind/consumer-confidence-index-cci.htm
• CNN Business — Fear & Greed Index. https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed
• Google Trends — interest over time. https://trends.google.com/