Palanor: Industrial Pulse
The real economy operating heat — manufacturing, services, freight, production. The number a CFO carries into the room.
Overview
The Industrial Pulse Index reads the real economy operating heat — not its sentiment, not its asset prices, but the speed at which the country is making, moving, and selling things. The reading rises when the real economy is expanding and falls when it is contracting. It is designed to be the single number an operator can read alongside their own KPIs to understand whether their business is moving with the economy or against it.
Why these components
ISM Manufacturing and ISM Services cover the two halves of the production economy. Industrial production captures the level. Truck tonnage measures whether goods are moving. Retail sales captures whether the consumer is participating. JOLTS and temp help round out the picture by capturing the labor-market real-time read on demand. Together they give a picture that is closer to the ground than sentiment surveys alone.
Methodology
PMI-style series enter as z-scores. Production, freight, retail, and temp help enter as 12-month percentage changes. All components positive. Weighted sum, logistic scaling. Bands: 0–35 contracting, 35–65 expanding at baseline pace, 65–100 expanding above baseline.
Interpretation
Industrial Pulse is the operator index. It tells you whether the economy is running hot, cool, or contracting. When your own business is growing 6% and Industrial Pulse is reading 70, you are likely riding the cycle. When you are growing 6% and Industrial Pulse is reading 30, you are outperforming the cycle — and your peers are probably struggling.
Caveats
The index is US-centric. International operators should treat it as one read among several. The index does not capture financial-sector activity (banking, asset management) — it is intentionally a real-economy read.
Components & Weights
Every component, every weight. The 30-day spark shows how the underlying series has moved; the transform column shows how it converts to a comparable scale before weighting. Direction indicates whether rising values raise or lower the index.
| Component | Source | Weight | Direction | Transform | 30d | 24h | 30d Δ | Now contributing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISM Manufacturing PMI | FRED | 20% | positive | zscore_24m | — | — | — | -0.184 |
| ISM Services PMI (proxy) | FRED | 18% | positive | zscore_24m | — | — | — | +0.294 |
| Industrial Production | FRED | 18% | positive | pct_change_12m | — | — | — | +0.166 |
| Truck Tonnage Index | FRED | 14% | positive | pct_change_12m | — | — | — | +0.328 |
| Retail Sales (Real) | FRED | 12% | positive | pct_change_12m | — | — | — | -0.003 |
| JOLTS Job Openings | FRED | 10% | positive | zscore_24m | — | — | — | -0.114 |
| Temp Help Services Employment | FRED | 8% | positive | pct_change_12m | — | — | — | +0.097 |
Current Reading
Numen for the public read:
Palanor reads industrial pulse at 64.2 of 100 — modestly above its 24-month neutral. The composite is steady, with the weight of components leaning in one direction.
Historical
24-month history of this index. The composite is recomputed daily; values are stored with timestamps.
Index value stable across the window — components have not published new observations since 5/17/2026
Raw readings · 20 rows ▾
| # | Computed at | Value | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 5/27/2026, 8:45:49 AM | 64.2010 | 0.0000 |
| 19 | 5/26/2026, 8:45:25 AM | 64.2010 | 0.0000 |
| 18 | 5/26/2026, 6:48:30 AM | 64.2010 | 0.0000 |
| 17 | 5/26/2026, 6:48:25 AM | 64.2010 | 0.0000 |
| 16 | 5/26/2026, 3:54:58 AM | 64.2010 | 0.0000 |
| 15 | 5/26/2026, 3:54:11 AM | 64.2010 | 0.0000 |
| 14 | 5/26/2026, 3:53:41 AM | 64.2010 | 0.0000 |
| 13 | 5/25/2026, 8:45:25 AM | 64.2010 | 0.0000 |
| 12 | 5/24/2026, 8:45:45 AM | 64.2010 | 0.0000 |
| 11 | 5/23/2026, 8:45:27 AM | 64.2010 | 0.0000 |
| 10 | 5/22/2026, 8:45:19 AM | 64.2010 | 0.0000 |
| 9 | 5/21/2026, 8:45:06 AM | 64.2010 | 0.0000 |
| 8 | 5/20/2026, 8:45:29 AM | 64.2010 | 0.0000 |
| 7 | 5/19/2026, 8:45:35 AM | 64.2010 | 0.0000 |
| 6 | 5/18/2026, 8:45:12 AM | 64.2010 | 0.0000 |
| 5 | 5/18/2026, 5:36:01 AM | 64.2010 | 0.0000 |
| 4 | 5/18/2026, 5:33:42 AM | 64.2010 | 0.0000 |
| 3 | 5/18/2026, 5:33:24 AM | 64.2010 | 0.0000 |
| 2 | 5/17/2026, 11:14:09 PM | 64.2010 | 0.0000 |
| 1 | 5/17/2026, 9:01:00 PM | 64.2010 | — |
References
- FRED — Federal Reserve Economic Data, St. Louis Fed.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/ - Atlanta Fed — Wage Growth Tracker and Sticky-Price CPI.
https://www.atlantafed.org/research - Cleveland Fed — Model-based inflation expectations.
https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-research/indicators-and-data - OECD — Composite Consumer Confidence Indicator.
https://data.oecd.org/leadind/consumer-confidence-index-cci.htm - CNN Business — Fear & Greed Index.
https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed - Google Trends — interest over time.
https://trends.google.com/
Stewards see Palanor Indices tuned to their mandate.
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