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Palanor: Industrial Pulse

The real economy operating heat — manufacturing, services, freight, production. The number a CFO carries into the room.

Current reading
64.2
of 100 · Above neutral
Last computed
2026-05-27 08:45 UTC
7 of 7 components used

Overview

The Industrial Pulse Index reads the real economy operating heat — not its sentiment, not its asset prices, but the speed at which the country is making, moving, and selling things. The reading rises when the real economy is expanding and falls when it is contracting. It is designed to be the single number an operator can read alongside their own KPIs to understand whether their business is moving with the economy or against it.

Why these components

ISM Manufacturing and ISM Services cover the two halves of the production economy. Industrial production captures the level. Truck tonnage measures whether goods are moving. Retail sales captures whether the consumer is participating. JOLTS and temp help round out the picture by capturing the labor-market real-time read on demand. Together they give a picture that is closer to the ground than sentiment surveys alone.

Methodology

PMI-style series enter as z-scores. Production, freight, retail, and temp help enter as 12-month percentage changes. All components positive. Weighted sum, logistic scaling. Bands: 0–35 contracting, 35–65 expanding at baseline pace, 65–100 expanding above baseline.

Interpretation

Industrial Pulse is the operator index. It tells you whether the economy is running hot, cool, or contracting. When your own business is growing 6% and Industrial Pulse is reading 70, you are likely riding the cycle. When you are growing 6% and Industrial Pulse is reading 30, you are outperforming the cycle — and your peers are probably struggling.

Caveats

The index is US-centric. International operators should treat it as one read among several. The index does not capture financial-sector activity (banking, asset management) — it is intentionally a real-economy read.

Components & Weights

Every component, every weight. The 30-day spark shows how the underlying series has moved; the transform column shows how it converts to a comparable scale before weighting. Direction indicates whether rising values raise or lower the index.

ComponentSourceWeightDirectionTransform30d24h30d ΔNow contributing
ISM Manufacturing PMIFRED20%positivezscore_24m-0.184
ISM Services PMI (proxy)FRED18%positivezscore_24m+0.294
Industrial ProductionFRED18%positivepct_change_12m+0.166
Truck Tonnage IndexFRED14%positivepct_change_12m+0.328
Retail Sales (Real)FRED12%positivepct_change_12m-0.003
JOLTS Job OpeningsFRED10%positivezscore_24m-0.114
Temp Help Services EmploymentFRED8%positivepct_change_12m+0.097

Current Reading

Value
64.2
Raw composite
0.584
Scale
sigmoid_0_100

Numen for the public read:

Palanor reads industrial pulse at 64.2 of 100 — modestly above its 24-month neutral. The composite is steady, with the weight of components leaning in one direction.

Historical

24-month history of this index. The composite is recomputed daily; values are stored with timestamps.

59.264.269.2
20 readings · 10 days · range 64.2064.205/17/20265/27/2026

Index value stable across the window — components have not published new observations since 5/17/2026

Download
Raw readings · 20 rows
#Computed atValueΔ
205/27/2026, 8:45:49 AM64.20100.0000
195/26/2026, 8:45:25 AM64.20100.0000
185/26/2026, 6:48:30 AM64.20100.0000
175/26/2026, 6:48:25 AM64.20100.0000
165/26/2026, 3:54:58 AM64.20100.0000
155/26/2026, 3:54:11 AM64.20100.0000
145/26/2026, 3:53:41 AM64.20100.0000
135/25/2026, 8:45:25 AM64.20100.0000
125/24/2026, 8:45:45 AM64.20100.0000
115/23/2026, 8:45:27 AM64.20100.0000
105/22/2026, 8:45:19 AM64.20100.0000
95/21/2026, 8:45:06 AM64.20100.0000
85/20/2026, 8:45:29 AM64.20100.0000
75/19/2026, 8:45:35 AM64.20100.0000
65/18/2026, 8:45:12 AM64.20100.0000
55/18/2026, 5:36:01 AM64.20100.0000
45/18/2026, 5:33:42 AM64.20100.0000
35/18/2026, 5:33:24 AM64.20100.0000
25/17/2026, 11:14:09 PM64.20100.0000
15/17/2026, 9:01:00 PM64.2010

References

  • FRED — Federal Reserve Economic Data, St. Louis Fed. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/
  • Atlanta Fed — Wage Growth Tracker and Sticky-Price CPI. https://www.atlantafed.org/research
  • Cleveland Fed — Model-based inflation expectations. https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-research/indicators-and-data
  • OECD — Composite Consumer Confidence Indicator. https://data.oecd.org/leadind/consumer-confidence-index-cci.htm
  • CNN Business — Fear & Greed Index. https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed
  • Google Trends — interest over time. https://trends.google.com/

Stewards see Palanor Indices tuned to their mandate.

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