The Palanor Indices
The instruments Palanor builds to read what the singular series cannot.
Anyone can show you CPI. Anyone can show you the VIX. Palanor builds composites — transparently disclosed, weight-by-weight, with public-source components.
The Palanor Indices
Anyone can show you CPI. Anyone can show you the VIX. Palanor builds composites — transparently disclosed, weight-by-weight, with public-source components.
The multi-decade lens. Real S&P deviation from 30Y trend + real Fed funds (inverted) + Buffett Indicator. The arc, not the cycle.
The Long Watch is the multi-decade lens. It averages the percentile rank of three long-horizon dimensions: how far real US equities sit above their 30-year trailing average (mean-reversion lens), what the cost of capital is relative to history (inverted real Fed funds rate), and where the equity market sits relative to the size of the economy (Buffett Indicator). The composite reads where the long arc stands — not the cycle, the arc.
The arc is longer than the cycle.
Most market reads focus on the 6-to-18 month cycle. The Long Watch ignores that and asks: across the last 30 years and the next 30, what is the position? Real S&P deviation captures mean reversion — when equities are far above their long trend, the gravity of history will eventually pull them back. Real Fed funds inverted captures policy posture — when capital is cheap for years on end, asset prices ride the easy money. Buffett captures the capital-to-economy ratio — when equity value far outruns the GDP that produces earnings, the gap will close one way or another.
0-25 (CALM): the long arc is at a generational low — assets cheap relative to their own multi-decade norms. 25-50 (WATCHFUL): below norm but rising. 50-75 (ELEVATED): meaningfully above the long arc. 75-100 (MANIA): the long arc is stretched in ways history says do not last. A reading here does not say the next quarter will break — it says what the next thirty years will be made of.
Long Watch is for stewards thinking about generational wealth and institutional posture, not traders timing the next month. The 1929-1942 trough sat in the CALM band for nearly a decade. The 1995-2000 stretch sat in MANIA before resolving. A high reading right now (the current reading) tells you that returns over the next 30 years from this starting position will likely be lower than the historical average — not that 2026 will be bad.
Every component, every weight. The 30-day spark shows how the underlying series has moved; the transform column shows how it converts to a comparable scale before weighting. Direction indicates whether rising values raise or lower the index.
| Component | Source | Weight | Direction | Transform | 30d | 24h | 30d Δ | Now contributing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real S&P 500 (indexed) | Shiller | 40% | positive | zscore_24m | — | — | — | +0.652 |
| Real Fed Funds Rate | FRED | 20% | negative | zscore_24m | — | — | — | -0.142 |
| Buffett Indicator |
Numen for the public read:
Palanor reads long watch as elevated at 77.7 of 100 — well above its 24-month neutral. The composite is leaning into the regime, not against it.
24-month history of this index. The composite is recomputed daily; values are stored with timestamps.
| # | Computed at | Value | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 7/11/2026, 8:45:41 AM | 77.6872 | 0.0000 |
| 52 | 7/10/2026, 8:45:19 AM | 77.6872 | 0.0000 |
| 51 | 7/9/2026, 8:45:59 AM | 77.6872 | 0.0000 |
| 50 | 7/8/2026, 8:45:59 AM | 77.6872 | 0.0000 |
| 49 | 7/7/2026, 8:45:59 AM | 77.6872 | 0.0000 |
| 48 | 7/6/2026, 8:46:00 AM | 77.6872 | 0.0000 |
| 47 | 7/5/2026, 8:45:59 AM | 77.6872 | 0.0000 |
| 46 | 7/4/2026, 8:46:00 AM | 77.6872 | 0.0000 |
| 45 | 7/3/2026, 8:46:00 AM | 77.6872 | 0.0000 |
| 44 | 7/2/2026, 8:45:59 AM | 77.6872 | 0.0000 |
| 43 | 7/1/2026, 8:45:41 AM | 77.6872 | 0.0000 |
| 42 | 6/30/2026, 8:45:42 AM | 77.6872 | 0.0000 |
| 41 | 6/29/2026, 8:45:56 AM | 77.6872 | 0.0000 |
| 40 | 6/28/2026, 8:45:57 AM | 77.6872 | 0.0000 |
| 39 | 6/27/2026, 8:45:55 AM | 77.6872 | 0.0000 |
| 38 | 6/26/2026, 8:45:56 AM | 77.6872 | 0.0000 |
| 37 | 6/25/2026, 8:45:35 AM | 77.6872 | 0.0000 |
| 36 | 6/24/2026, 8:45:35 AM | 77.6872 | 0.0000 |
| 35 | 6/23/2026, 8:45:09 AM | 77.6872 | 0.0000 |
| 34 | 6/22/2026, 8:45:11 AM | 77.6872 | 0.0000 |
| 33 | 6/21/2026, 8:45:12 AM | 77.6872 | 0.0000 |
| 32 | 6/20/2026, 8:45:18 AM | 77.6872 | 0.0000 |
| 31 | 6/19/2026, 8:45:18 AM | 77.6872 | 0.0000 |
| 30 | 6/18/2026, 8:45:38 AM | 77.6872 | 0.0000 |
| 29 | 6/17/2026, 8:45:29 AM | 77.6872 | 0.0000 |
| 28 | 6/16/2026, 8:45:15 AM | 77.6872 | 0.0000 |
| 27 | 6/15/2026, 8:45:15 AM | 77.6872 | 0.0000 |
| 26 | 6/14/2026, 8:45:46 AM | 77.6872 | 0.0000 |
| 25 | 6/13/2026, 8:45:13 AM | 77.6872 | 0.0000 |
| 24 | 6/12/2026, 8:45:23 AM | 77.6872 | 0.0000 |
| 23 | 6/11/2026, 8:45:28 AM | 77.6872 | 0.0000 |
| 22 | 6/10/2026, 8:45:44 AM | 77.6872 | 0.0000 |
| 21 | 6/9/2026, 8:45:57 AM | 77.6872 | 0.0000 |
| 20 | 6/8/2026, 10:53:10 PM | 77.6872 | 0.0000 |
| 19 | 6/8/2026, 8:45:40 AM | 77.6872 | 0.0000 |
| 18 | 6/7/2026, 8:45:35 AM | 77.6872 | 0.0000 |
| 17 | 6/6/2026, 8:45:35 AM | 77.6872 | 0.0000 |
| 16 | 6/5/2026, 8:45:57 AM | 77.6872 | 0.0000 |
| 15 | 6/4/2026, 7:12:16 PM | 77.6872 | 0.0000 |
| 14 | 6/4/2026, 4:21:28 PM | 77.6872 | 0.0000 |
| 13 | 6/4/2026, 4:20:36 PM | 77.6872 | 0.0000 |
| 12 | 6/4/2026, 4:20:10 PM | 77.6872 | 0.0000 |
| 11 | 6/4/2026, 8:45:45 AM | 77.6872 | 0.0000 |
| 10 | 6/3/2026, 8:45:18 AM | 77.6872 | 0.0000 |
| 9 | 6/2/2026, 8:45:36 AM | 77.6872 | 0.0000 |
| 8 | 6/2/2026, 3:48:37 AM | 77.6872 | 0.0000 |
| 7 | 6/2/2026, 3:13:30 AM | 77.6872 | 0.0000 |
| 6 | 6/2/2026, 3:02:33 AM | 77.6872 | +5.8872 |
| 5 | 9/30/2025, 12:00:00 AM | 71.8000 | +5.4000 |
| 4 | 6/30/2025, 12:00:00 AM | 66.4000 | -0.7000 |
| 3 | 3/31/2025, 12:00:00 AM | 67.1000 | +0.7000 |
| 2 | 12/31/2024, 12:00:00 AM | 66.4000 | +11.2000 |
| 1 | 9/30/2024, 12:00:00 AM | 55.2000 | — |
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/https://www.atlantafed.org/researchhttps://www.clevelandfed.org/our-research/indicators-and-datahttps://data.oecd.org/leadind/consumer-confidence-index-cci.htmhttps://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greedhttps://trends.google.com/Stewards see Palanor Indices tuned to their mandate.
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| FRED |
| 40% |
| positive |
| zscore_24m |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| +0.598 |