Palanor: Geopolitical Anxiety
Worldwide search attention on the named flashpoints that are most likely to move markets.
What this index reads
Stewards do not need to track every geopolitical news cycle. They need to know when one is suddenly arriving. Geopolitical Anxiety composites worldwide search attention on four named flashpoints — Taiwan, China-broad-war language, the Red Sea, and Russia sanctions — into a single read of how loudly the world is paying attention.
Reading the spikes
Spikes are common; what matters is the slope and the persistence. A 2-week elevated reading is a news cycle. A 6-week elevated reading is a regime shift. Cassian tracks the named procurement decisions that often precede the 6-week-elevated case.
Components & Weights
Every component, every weight. The 30-day spark shows how the underlying series has moved; the transform column shows how it converts to a comparable scale before weighting. Direction indicates whether rising values raise or lower the index.
| Component | Source | Weight | Direction | Transform | 30d | 24h | 30d Δ | Now contributing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taiwan invasion — interest | Google Trends | 30% | positive | zscore_24m | ▼ 4.00 | ▼ 40.00 | -0.353 | |
| China war — interest | Google Trends | 25% | positive | zscore_24m | ▼ 5.00 | ▼ 23.00 | -0.184 | |
| Red Sea — interest | Google Trends | 20% | positive | zscore_24m | ▼ 1.00 | ▼ 36.00 | -0.256 | |
| Sanctions Russia — interest | Google Trends | 25% | positive | zscore_24m | 0.00 | ▼ 36.00 | -0.293 |
Current Reading
Numen for the public read:
Palanor reads geopolitical anxiety as depressed at 25.2 of 100 — well below its 24-month neutral. The composite is pulling against the regime.
Historical
24-month history of this index. The composite is recomputed daily; values are stored with timestamps.
Y-axis auto-zoomed · data clusters tightly
Raw readings · 4 rows ▾
| # | Computed at | Value | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 5/27/2026, 8:45:52 AM | 25.2340 | +0.3906 |
| 3 | 5/26/2026, 8:45:28 AM | 24.8434 | -0.0404 |
| 2 | 5/26/2026, 6:48:33 AM | 24.8838 | 0.0000 |
| 1 | 5/26/2026, 6:48:28 AM | 24.8838 | — |
References
- FRED — Federal Reserve Economic Data, St. Louis Fed.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/ - Atlanta Fed — Wage Growth Tracker and Sticky-Price CPI.
https://www.atlantafed.org/research - Cleveland Fed — Model-based inflation expectations.
https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-research/indicators-and-data - OECD — Composite Consumer Confidence Indicator.
https://data.oecd.org/leadind/consumer-confidence-index-cci.htm - CNN Business — Fear & Greed Index.
https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed - Google Trends — interest over time.
https://trends.google.com/
Stewards see Palanor Indices tuned to their mandate.
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