Palanor: US Jobs Health
Three things tell the labor story — who is hiring, who is quitting, and what they are paid.
The American labor market is over-described and under-read. Headline unemployment misses half the story; payrolls miss the other half. This index reads jobs across three dimensions simultaneously: hiring (openings, payrolls), separation (quits, jobless claims), and compensation (wage growth, real income). The weighting balances them. The result is a 0–100 score where: - 0.0–0.2: distressed (high unemployment, falling wages, hiring collapse) - 0.2–0.4: weakening - 0.4–0.6: balanced — the canonical "soft landing" reading - 0.6–0.8: tight (low unemployment, accelerating wages, quits rising) - 0.8–1.0: overheating, late-cycle risk The index is forward-looking by construction. Quits rates lead unemployment by 6–9 months; wage growth lags by 3–6 months. Reading them together gives the regime, not just the snapshot.
Components & Weights
Every component, every weight. The 30-day spark shows how the underlying series has moved; the transform column shows how it converts to a comparable scale before weighting. Direction indicates whether rising values raise or lower the index.
| Component | Source | Weight | Direction | Transform | 30d | 24h | 30d Δ | Now contributing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment Rate | FRED | 17% | negative | zscore_24m | — | — | — | -0.111 |
| JOLTS Job Openings | FRED | 17% | positive | zscore_24m | — | — | — | -0.229 |
| JOLTS Quits Rate | FRED | 11% | positive | zscore_24m | — | — | — | -0.021 |
| Atlanta Fed Wage Growth (12mo) | FRED | 17% | positive | zscore_24m | — | — | — | awaiting data |
| Real Personal Income | FRED | 17% | positive | pct_change_12m | — | — | — | -0.276 |
| Initial Jobless Claims | FRED | 11% | negative | zscore_24m | ▼ 2000 | ▲ 10000 | +0.168 | |
| Employment-Population Ratio | FRED | 11% | positive | zscore_24m | — | — | — | -0.300 |
Awaiting data means the most recent compute did not have a fresh value for that component. The composite re-normalizes around what is present, so the index reading remains meaningful. The component returns the moment its source publishes.
Current Reading
Numen for the public read:
Palanor reads us jobs health at 31.7 of 100 — modestly below its 24-month neutral. The composite is softening, with the weight of components leaning the other way. This reading is computed across 6 of 7 components; the remainder are awaiting data.
Historical
24-month history of this index. The composite is recomputed daily; values are stored with timestamps.
Y-axis auto-zoomed · data clusters tightly
Raw readings · 10 rows ▾
| # | Computed at | Value | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 5/27/2026, 8:45:49 AM | 31.6699 | +0.0550 |
| 9 | 5/26/2026, 8:45:25 AM | 31.6149 | 0.0000 |
| 8 | 5/26/2026, 6:48:31 AM | 31.6149 | 0.0000 |
| 7 | 5/26/2026, 6:48:26 AM | 31.6149 | 0.0000 |
| 6 | 5/26/2026, 3:54:58 AM | 31.6149 | 0.0000 |
| 5 | 5/26/2026, 3:54:12 AM | 31.6149 | 0.0000 |
| 4 | 5/26/2026, 3:53:42 AM | 31.6149 | -0.0010 |
| 3 | 5/25/2026, 8:45:26 AM | 31.6159 | 0.0000 |
| 2 | 5/24/2026, 8:45:46 AM | 31.6159 | 0.0000 |
| 1 | 5/23/2026, 8:45:28 AM | 31.6159 | — |
References
- FRED — Federal Reserve Economic Data, St. Louis Fed.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/ - Atlanta Fed — Wage Growth Tracker and Sticky-Price CPI.
https://www.atlantafed.org/research - Cleveland Fed — Model-based inflation expectations.
https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-research/indicators-and-data - OECD — Composite Consumer Confidence Indicator.
https://data.oecd.org/leadind/consumer-confidence-index-cci.htm - CNN Business — Fear & Greed Index.
https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed - Google Trends — interest over time.
https://trends.google.com/
Stewards see Palanor Indices tuned to their mandate.
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