Palanor: Recession Vocabulary
How loudly households + small operators are typing the words that show up during downturns.
What this index reads
Households type their fears before they vote with their wallets. Recession Vocabulary composites four series — explicit recession searches, layoff anxiety, credit-default attention, and unemployment queries — to read aggregate household pessimism in near-real-time.
Why this beats survey sentiment
UMich Consumer Sentiment is monthly and self-reported. This index is weekly and behavioral. Behavioral data leads stated preference by 2-6 weeks. When this index moves before UMich does, the survey is about to confirm what stewards already saw here.
Components & Weights
Every component, every weight. The 30-day spark shows how the underlying series has moved; the transform column shows how it converts to a comparable scale before weighting. Direction indicates whether rising values raise or lower the index.
| Component | Source | Weight | Direction | Transform | 30d | 24h | 30d Δ | Now contributing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recession 2026 — interest | Google Trends | 30% | positive | zscore_24m | ▼ 1.00 | ▼ 43.00 | -0.099 | |
| Layoffs — interest | Google Trends | 30% | positive | zscore_24m | ▼ 22.00 | ▼ 20.00 | -0.293 | |
| Credit default — interest | Google Trends | 20% | positive | zscore_24m | 0.00 | ▼ 48.00 | -0.203 | |
| Unemployment — interest | Google Trends | 20% | positive | zscore_24m | ▼ 1.00 | ▼ 13.00 | -0.274 |
Current Reading
Numen for the public read:
Palanor reads recession vocabulary as depressed at 29.5 of 100 — well below its 24-month neutral. The composite is pulling against the regime.
Historical
24-month history of this index. The composite is recomputed daily; values are stored with timestamps.
Y-axis auto-zoomed · data clusters tightly
Raw readings · 4 rows ▾
| # | Computed at | Value | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 5/27/2026, 8:45:51 AM | 29.5497 | +3.9465 |
| 3 | 5/26/2026, 8:45:28 AM | 25.6032 | -0.0324 |
| 2 | 5/26/2026, 6:48:32 AM | 25.6356 | 0.0000 |
| 1 | 5/26/2026, 6:48:28 AM | 25.6356 | — |
References
- FRED — Federal Reserve Economic Data, St. Louis Fed.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/ - Atlanta Fed — Wage Growth Tracker and Sticky-Price CPI.
https://www.atlantafed.org/research - Cleveland Fed — Model-based inflation expectations.
https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-research/indicators-and-data - OECD — Composite Consumer Confidence Indicator.
https://data.oecd.org/leadind/consumer-confidence-index-cci.htm - CNN Business — Fear & Greed Index.
https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed - Google Trends — interest over time.
https://trends.google.com/
Stewards see Palanor Indices tuned to their mandate.
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