The Palanor Indices
The instruments Palanor builds to read what the singular series cannot.
Anyone can show you CPI. Anyone can show you the VIX. Palanor builds composites — transparently disclosed, weight-by-weight, with public-source components.
The Palanor Indices
Anyone can show you CPI. Anyone can show you the VIX. Palanor builds composites — transparently disclosed, weight-by-weight, with public-source components.
How loudly households + small operators are typing the words that show up during downturns.
Households type their fears before they vote with their wallets. Recession Vocabulary composites four series — explicit recession searches, layoff anxiety, credit-default attention, and unemployment queries — to read aggregate household pessimism in near-real-time.
UMich Consumer Sentiment is monthly and self-reported. This index is weekly and behavioral. Behavioral data leads stated preference by 2-6 weeks. When this index moves before UMich does, the survey is about to confirm what stewards already saw here.
Every component, every weight. The 30-day spark shows how the underlying series has moved; the transform column shows how it converts to a comparable scale before weighting. Direction indicates whether rising values raise or lower the index.
| Component | Source | Weight | Direction | Transform | 30d | 24h | 30d Δ | Now contributing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recession 2026 — interest | Google Trends | 30% | positive | zscore_24m | ▼ 5.00 | ▼ 9.00 | -0.222 | |
| Layoffs — interest | Google Trends | 30% | positive | zscore_24m | ▼ 4.00 |
Numen for the public read:
Palanor reads recession vocabulary as depressed at 28.4 of 100 — well below its 24-month neutral. The composite is pulling against the regime.
24-month history of this index. The composite is recomputed daily; values are stored with timestamps.
| # | Computed at | Value | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 125 | 8/25/2026, 8:45:41 AM | 28.3930 | +5.0843 |
| 124 | 8/24/2026, 8:45:40 AM | 23.3087 | +5.3159 |
| 123 | 8/23/2026, 8:45:40 AM | 17.9928 | -12.7063 |
| 122 | 8/22/2026, 8:45:40 AM | 30.6991 | -1.9012 |
| 121 | 8/21/2026, 8:46:38 AM | 32.6003 | -0.2694 |
| 120 | 8/20/2026, 8:45:49 AM | 32.8696 | +1.6196 |
| 119 | 8/19/2026, 8:46:40 AM | 31.2501 | -1.4792 |
| 118 | 8/18/2026, 8:45:50 AM | 32.7293 | +6.5376 |
| 117 | 8/17/2026, 8:45:49 AM | 26.1917 | +5.5690 |
| 116 | 8/16/2026, 8:45:50 AM | 20.6227 | -10.5662 |
| 115 | 8/15/2026, 8:45:50 AM | 31.1890 | +1.6083 |
| 114 | 8/14/2026, 8:46:44 AM | 29.5807 | -1.7172 |
| 113 | 8/13/2026, 8:45:49 AM | 31.2980 | -0.7231 |
| 112 | 8/12/2026, 8:45:41 AM | 32.0211 | -1.6952 |
| 111 | 8/11/2026, 8:45:40 AM | 33.7163 | +7.8446 |
| 110 | 8/10/2026, 8:45:16 AM | 25.8717 | +5.3503 |
| 109 | 8/9/2026, 8:46:11 AM | 20.5213 | -9.6083 |
| 108 | 8/8/2026, 8:45:16 AM | 30.1297 | -0.4991 |
| 107 | 8/7/2026, 8:45:17 AM | 30.6287 | -0.7930 |
| 106 | 8/6/2026, 8:45:16 AM | 31.4217 | +0.1044 |
| 105 | 8/5/2026, 8:45:10 AM | 31.3173 | +0.8883 |
| 104 | 8/4/2026, 8:45:22 AM | 30.4290 | 0.0000 |
| 103 | 8/4/2026, 8:45:15 AM | 30.4290 | +5.5505 |
| 102 | 8/3/2026, 8:45:22 AM | 24.8785 | 0.0000 |
| 101 | 8/3/2026, 8:45:16 AM | 24.8785 | +4.9752 |
| 100 | 8/2/2026, 8:45:22 AM | 19.9033 | 0.0000 |
| 99 | 8/2/2026, 8:45:14 AM | 19.9033 | -11.9577 |
| 98 | 8/1/2026, 8:45:37 AM | 31.8610 | 0.0000 |
| 97 | 8/1/2026, 8:45:18 AM | 31.8610 | -0.7758 |
| 96 | 7/31/2026, 8:45:38 AM | 32.6368 | 0.0000 |
| 95 | 7/31/2026, 8:45:18 AM | 32.6368 | -3.3868 |
| 94 | 7/30/2026, 8:45:38 AM | 36.0236 | 0.0000 |
| 93 | 7/30/2026, 8:45:18 AM | 36.0236 | +1.1258 |
| 92 | 7/29/2026, 8:45:38 AM | 34.8979 | 0.0000 |
| 91 | 7/29/2026, 8:45:18 AM | 34.8979 | +4.7432 |
| 90 | 7/28/2026, 8:45:38 AM | 30.1547 | 0.0000 |
| 89 | 7/28/2026, 8:45:18 AM | 30.1547 | +3.5525 |
| 88 | 7/27/2026, 8:45:37 AM | 26.6022 | 0.0000 |
| 87 | 7/27/2026, 8:45:18 AM | 26.6022 | +6.7873 |
| 86 | 7/26/2026, 8:45:29 AM | 19.8149 | 0.0000 |
| 85 | 7/26/2026, 8:45:29 AM | 19.8149 | -19.4572 |
| 84 | 7/25/2026, 8:45:30 AM | 39.2720 | 0.0000 |
| 83 | 7/25/2026, 8:45:19 AM | 39.2720 | -0.4994 |
| 82 | 7/25/2026, 8:12:40 AM | 39.7714 | 0.0000 |
| 81 | 7/25/2026, 8:12:13 AM | 39.7714 | 0.0000 |
| 80 | 7/25/2026, 8:11:27 AM | 39.7714 | 0.0000 |
| 79 | 7/25/2026, 6:49:33 AM | 39.7714 | +17.3820 |
| 78 | 7/24/2026, 8:45:44 AM | 22.3894 | 0.0000 |
| 77 | 7/24/2026, 8:45:29 AM | 22.3894 | 0.0000 |
| 76 | 7/23/2026, 8:45:44 AM | 22.3894 | 0.0000 |
| 75 | 7/23/2026, 8:45:31 AM | 22.3894 | 0.0000 |
| 74 | 7/22/2026, 8:45:47 AM | 22.3894 | 0.0000 |
| 73 | 7/21/2026, 8:45:47 AM | 22.3894 | 0.0000 |
| 72 | 7/20/2026, 8:45:47 AM | 22.3894 | 0.0000 |
| 71 | 7/19/2026, 8:45:47 AM | 22.3894 | -12.7669 |
| 70 | 7/18/2026, 8:45:48 AM | 35.1563 | -0.1047 |
| 69 | 7/17/2026, 8:45:47 AM | 35.2609 | -0.2154 |
| 68 | 7/16/2026, 8:45:16 AM | 35.4763 | -1.9623 |
| 67 | 7/15/2026, 8:45:24 AM | 37.4386 | +0.4024 |
| 66 | 7/14/2026, 8:45:18 AM | 37.0362 | +8.0695 |
| 65 | 7/13/2026, 8:45:24 AM | 28.9666 | +4.8716 |
| 64 | 7/12/2026, 8:45:24 AM | 24.0951 | -14.6459 |
| 63 | 7/11/2026, 8:45:37 AM | 38.7410 | -3.2283 |
| 62 | 7/10/2026, 8:45:16 AM | 41.9693 | +0.0896 |
| 61 | 7/9/2026, 8:45:56 AM | 41.8797 | +0.0872 |
| 60 | 7/8/2026, 8:45:55 AM | 41.7925 | +1.9158 |
| 59 | 7/7/2026, 8:45:56 AM | 39.8767 | +8.2309 |
| 58 | 7/6/2026, 8:45:56 AM | 31.6458 | +8.1369 |
| 57 | 7/5/2026, 8:45:56 AM | 23.5089 | -10.3500 |
| 56 | 7/4/2026, 8:45:56 AM | 33.8589 | -2.7376 |
| 55 | 7/3/2026, 8:45:57 AM | 36.5965 | -0.1461 |
| 54 | 7/2/2026, 8:45:56 AM | 36.7426 | -0.6656 |
| 53 | 7/1/2026, 8:45:37 AM | 37.4082 | -0.0717 |
| 52 | 6/30/2026, 8:45:39 AM | 37.4799 | +5.2241 |
| 51 | 6/29/2026, 8:45:53 AM | 32.2558 | +8.0842 |
| 50 | 6/28/2026, 8:45:53 AM | 24.1715 | -17.1866 |
| 49 | 6/27/2026, 8:45:52 AM | 41.3582 | -0.4654 |
| 48 | 6/26/2026, 8:45:52 AM | 41.8236 | -2.5628 |
| 47 | 6/25/2026, 8:45:31 AM | 44.3864 | +2.1337 |
| 46 | 6/24/2026, 8:45:32 AM | 42.2527 | +2.2304 |
| 45 | 6/23/2026, 8:45:06 AM | 40.0223 | +12.8025 |
| 44 | 6/22/2026, 8:45:08 AM | 27.2198 | +5.8466 |
| 43 | 6/21/2026, 8:45:09 AM | 21.3732 | -10.8025 |
| 42 | 6/20/2026, 8:45:15 AM | 32.1756 | -0.6523 |
| 41 | 6/19/2026, 8:45:15 AM | 32.8279 | -2.6767 |
| 40 | 6/18/2026, 8:45:35 AM | 35.5046 | +0.7405 |
| 39 | 6/17/2026, 8:45:25 AM | 34.7642 | +2.9109 |
| 38 | 6/16/2026, 8:45:12 AM | 31.8533 | +10.6242 |
| 37 | 6/15/2026, 8:45:12 AM | 21.2291 | +0.3461 |
| 36 | 6/14/2026, 8:45:43 AM | 20.8831 | -13.0733 |
| 35 | 6/13/2026, 8:45:11 AM | 33.9563 | -2.3576 |
| 34 | 6/12/2026, 8:45:20 AM | 36.3139 | +0.0394 |
| 33 | 6/11/2026, 8:45:25 AM | 36.2745 | +0.7889 |
| 32 | 6/10/2026, 8:45:42 AM | 35.4855 | +1.5059 |
| 31 | 6/9/2026, 8:45:54 AM | 33.9796 | +1.8594 |
| 30 | 6/8/2026, 10:53:06 PM | 32.1202 | 0.0000 |
| 29 | 6/8/2026, 8:45:37 AM | 32.1202 | +3.3228 |
| 28 | 6/7/2026, 8:45:32 AM | 28.7975 | -4.6074 |
| 27 | 6/6/2026, 8:45:32 AM | 33.4048 | -0.9114 |
| 26 | 6/5/2026, 8:45:54 AM | 34.3163 | -3.1489 |
| 25 | 6/4/2026, 7:12:13 PM | 37.4652 | 0.0000 |
| 24 | 6/4/2026, 4:21:23 PM | 37.4652 | 0.0000 |
| 23 | 6/4/2026, 4:20:33 PM | 37.4652 | 0.0000 |
| 22 | 6/4/2026, 4:20:05 PM | 37.4652 | 0.0000 |
| 21 | 6/4/2026, 8:45:42 AM | 37.4652 | +1.1628 |
| 20 | 6/3/2026, 8:45:16 AM | 36.3023 | -0.5172 |
| 19 | 6/2/2026, 8:45:33 AM | 36.8195 | +8.8720 |
| 18 | 6/2/2026, 3:48:35 AM | 27.9476 | 0.0000 |
| 17 | 6/2/2026, 3:13:28 AM | 27.9476 | 0.0000 |
| 16 | 6/2/2026, 3:02:31 AM | 27.9476 | 0.0000 |
| 15 | 6/2/2026, 3:00:52 AM | 27.9476 | 0.0000 |
| 14 | 6/1/2026, 8:45:48 AM | 27.9476 | +3.9320 |
| 13 | 5/31/2026, 8:45:35 AM | 24.0156 | -7.3602 |
| 12 | 5/30/2026, 8:45:29 AM | 31.3758 | +0.0397 |
| 11 | 5/30/2026, 5:04:22 AM | 31.3361 | 0.0000 |
| 10 | 5/30/2026, 4:55:36 AM | 31.3361 | 0.0000 |
| 9 | 5/30/2026, 4:12:36 AM | 31.3361 | 0.0000 |
| 8 | 5/30/2026, 4:12:20 AM | 31.3361 | 0.0000 |
| 7 | 5/29/2026, 8:45:29 AM | 31.3361 | +0.4877 |
| 6 | 5/29/2026, 4:58:26 AM | 30.8484 | 0.0000 |
| 5 | 5/28/2026, 8:45:14 AM | 30.8484 | +1.2987 |
| 4 | 5/27/2026, 8:45:51 AM | 29.5497 | +3.9465 |
| 3 | 5/26/2026, 8:45:28 AM | 25.6032 | -0.0324 |
| 2 | 5/26/2026, 6:48:32 AM | 25.6356 | 0.0000 |
| 1 | 5/26/2026, 6:48:28 AM | 25.6356 | — |
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/https://www.atlantafed.org/researchhttps://www.clevelandfed.org/our-research/indicators-and-datahttps://data.oecd.org/leadind/consumer-confidence-index-cci.htmhttps://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greedhttps://trends.google.com/Stewards see Palanor Indices tuned to their mandate.
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| ▼ 6.00 |
| -0.295 |
| Credit default — interest | Google Trends | 20% | positive | zscore_24m | ▼ 5.00 | ▼ 12.00 | -0.277 |
| Unemployment — interest | Google Trends | 20% | positive | zscore_24m | ▲ 9.00 | ▲ 5.00 | -0.132 |