The Palanor Indices
The instruments Palanor builds to read what the singular series cannot.
Anyone can show you CPI. Anyone can show you the VIX. Palanor builds composites — transparently disclosed, weight-by-weight, with public-source components.
The Palanor Indices
Anyone can show you CPI. Anyone can show you the VIX. Palanor builds composites — transparently disclosed, weight-by-weight, with public-source components.
How tight or loose the capital window is for the operator who needs to refinance, raise, or close a deal in the next twelve months.
The Capital Tightness Index reads the capital window the way a mid-market operator experiences it — through the policy rate, the cost of borrowing in the corporate credit market, and the posture of the central bank's balance sheet. A reading near zero is a loose window; a reading near 100 is a window closing. The index is built to track the moments when refinancings, deal closes, and capital raises become materially harder.
The Federal Funds rate sets the floor for everything. High-yield and investment-grade option-adjusted spreads price the marginal cost of capital for the operator who needs to raise. Reverse repo and the Fed balance sheet capture posture — accommodation or withdrawal. The dollar enters because tightening dollars are tightening capital globally, regardless of policy.
Levels and spreads are z-scored against the 24-month baseline. Balance sheet posture is included as a 12-month percentage change. Components with a negative direction are sign-flipped: a growing balance sheet loosens the window, so it depresses the index. Weighted sum, logistic scaling. Reading bands: 0–25 loose, 25–50 normal, 50–75 tightening, 75–100 closed.
Distinct from the Palanor: Liquidity index — Liquidity reads the global dollar weather; Capital Tightness reads the operator’s specific window. A high Liquidity reading with a high Capital Tightness reading means capital is abundant in aggregate but unevenly accessible — typically because credit spreads have widened even though the central bank is accommodative. The divergence is informative.
The index reads US conditions through US instruments. Operators with significant offshore funding may experience tightness differently. The index is also slower than equity-implied measures; widening credit spreads typically lag VIX moves by days to weeks.
Every component, every weight. The 30-day spark shows how the underlying series has moved; the transform column shows how it converts to a comparable scale before weighting. Direction indicates whether rising values raise or lower the index.
| Component | Source | Weight | Direction | Transform | 30d | 24h | 30d Δ | Now contributing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Funds Effective Rate | FRED | 22% | positive | zscore_24m | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.265 | |
| High Yield OAS | FRED | 24% | positive | zscore_24m |
Numen for the public read:
Palanor reads capital tightness as depressed at 24.7 of 100 — well below its 24-month neutral. The composite is pulling against the regime.
24-month history of this index. The composite is recomputed daily; values are stored with timestamps.
Y-axis auto-zoomed · data clusters tightly
| # | Computed at | Value | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 79 | 7/11/2026, 8:45:35 AM | 24.7361 | -0.1330 |
| 78 | 7/10/2026, 8:45:13 AM | 24.8692 | +0.4378 |
| 77 | 7/9/2026, 8:45:53 AM | 24.4313 | -0.3946 |
| 76 | 7/8/2026, 8:45:53 AM | 24.8259 | -0.1858 |
| 75 | 7/7/2026, 8:45:53 AM | 25.0118 | -0.1982 |
| 74 | 7/6/2026, 8:45:54 AM | 25.2100 | +0.0067 |
| 73 | 7/5/2026, 8:45:53 AM | 25.2033 | -0.0743 |
| 72 | 7/4/2026, 8:45:53 AM | 25.2775 | -0.1465 |
| 71 | 7/3/2026, 8:45:54 AM | 25.4240 | +0.1782 |
| 70 | 7/2/2026, 8:45:53 AM | 25.2458 | -1.0545 |
| 69 | 7/1/2026, 8:45:35 AM | 26.3003 | -0.3520 |
| 68 | 6/30/2026, 8:45:35 AM | 26.6523 | +1.2843 |
| 67 | 6/29/2026, 8:45:50 AM | 25.3680 | +0.1247 |
| 66 | 6/28/2026, 8:45:51 AM | 25.2434 | -0.0022 |
| 65 | 6/27/2026, 8:45:49 AM | 25.2456 | +0.6336 |
| 64 | 6/26/2026, 8:45:50 AM | 24.6120 | +0.9005 |
| 63 | 6/25/2026, 8:45:28 AM | 23.7115 | +0.7514 |
| 62 | 6/24/2026, 8:45:29 AM | 22.9601 | +0.0311 |
| 61 | 6/23/2026, 8:45:03 AM | 22.9290 | +1.1484 |
| 60 | 6/22/2026, 8:45:05 AM | 21.7806 | +0.0478 |
| 59 | 6/21/2026, 8:45:07 AM | 21.7328 | +0.0095 |
| 58 | 6/20/2026, 8:45:12 AM | 21.7233 | +0.0108 |
| 57 | 6/19/2026, 8:45:12 AM | 21.7126 | -1.6178 |
| 56 | 6/18/2026, 8:45:32 AM | 23.3304 | +1.0597 |
| 55 | 6/17/2026, 8:45:22 AM | 22.2707 | -0.3551 |
| 54 | 6/16/2026, 8:45:09 AM | 22.6258 | -1.5799 |
| 53 | 6/15/2026, 8:45:09 AM | 24.2057 | -0.0063 |
| 52 | 6/14/2026, 8:45:41 AM | 24.2120 | +0.0340 |
| 51 | 6/13/2026, 8:45:08 AM | 24.1779 | -0.2237 |
| 50 | 6/12/2026, 8:45:17 AM | 24.4016 | +0.2726 |
| 49 | 6/11/2026, 8:45:22 AM | 24.1290 | +0.4403 |
| 48 | 6/10/2026, 8:45:39 AM | 23.6887 | +0.1828 |
| 47 | 6/9/2026, 8:45:51 AM | 23.5059 | +0.7216 |
| 46 | 6/8/2026, 10:53:04 PM | 22.7843 | +0.3229 |
| 45 | 6/8/2026, 8:45:34 AM | 22.4613 | +0.2632 |
| 44 | 6/7/2026, 8:45:29 AM | 22.1982 | +0.0007 |
| 43 | 6/6/2026, 8:45:29 AM | 22.1975 | -0.1081 |
| 42 | 6/5/2026, 8:45:51 AM | 22.3056 | +0.8296 |
| 41 | 6/4/2026, 7:12:10 PM | 21.4760 | 0.0000 |
| 40 | 6/4/2026, 4:21:21 PM | 21.4760 | 0.0000 |
| 39 | 6/4/2026, 4:20:31 PM | 21.4760 | 0.0000 |
| 38 | 6/4/2026, 4:20:01 PM | 21.4760 | 0.0000 |
| 37 | 6/4/2026, 8:45:39 AM | 21.4760 | -0.4427 |
| 36 | 6/3/2026, 8:45:13 AM | 21.9187 | -0.5360 |
| 35 | 6/2/2026, 8:45:30 AM | 22.4547 | +0.4014 |
| 34 | 6/2/2026, 3:48:32 AM | 22.0533 | 0.0000 |
| 33 | 6/2/2026, 3:13:25 AM | 22.0533 | 0.0000 |
| 32 | 6/2/2026, 3:02:28 AM | 22.0533 | 0.0000 |
| 31 | 6/2/2026, 3:00:49 AM | 22.0533 | +0.0201 |
| 30 | 6/1/2026, 8:45:45 AM | 22.0332 | 0.0000 |
| 29 | 5/31/2026, 8:45:33 AM | 22.0332 | -0.0168 |
| 28 | 5/30/2026, 8:45:26 AM | 22.0500 | 0.0000 |
| 27 | 5/30/2026, 5:04:19 AM | 22.0500 | 0.0000 |
| 26 | 5/30/2026, 4:55:34 AM | 22.0500 | +0.2441 |
| 25 | 5/30/2026, 4:12:34 AM | 21.8059 | 0.0000 |
| 24 | 5/30/2026, 4:12:18 AM | 21.8059 | +0.0854 |
| 23 | 5/29/2026, 8:45:27 AM | 21.7205 | -0.1303 |
| 22 | 5/29/2026, 4:58:24 AM | 21.8507 | -0.0014 |
| 21 | 5/28/2026, 8:45:12 AM | 21.8522 | -0.2295 |
| 20 | 5/27/2026, 8:45:48 AM | 22.0817 | -0.7013 |
| 19 | 5/26/2026, 8:45:24 AM | 22.7830 | 0.0000 |
| 18 | 5/26/2026, 6:48:30 AM | 22.7830 | 0.0000 |
| 17 | 5/26/2026, 6:48:25 AM | 22.7830 | 0.0000 |
| 16 | 5/26/2026, 3:54:57 AM | 22.7830 | 0.0000 |
| 15 | 5/26/2026, 3:54:11 AM | 22.7830 | 0.0000 |
| 14 | 5/26/2026, 3:53:41 AM | 22.7830 | -0.0156 |
| 13 | 5/25/2026, 8:45:25 AM | 22.7986 | +0.0008 |
| 12 | 5/24/2026, 8:45:44 AM | 22.7978 | +0.1657 |
| 11 | 5/23/2026, 8:45:26 AM | 22.6321 | -0.3204 |
| 10 | 5/22/2026, 8:45:18 AM | 22.9525 | -2.1329 |
| 9 | 5/21/2026, 8:45:05 AM | 25.0854 | +1.3782 |
| 8 | 5/20/2026, 8:45:29 AM | 23.7072 | +0.6476 |
| 7 | 5/19/2026, 8:45:35 AM | 23.0596 | +1.1987 |
| 6 | 5/18/2026, 8:45:11 AM | 21.8609 | 0.0000 |
| 5 | 5/18/2026, 5:35:59 AM | 21.8609 | 0.0000 |
| 4 | 5/18/2026, 5:33:41 AM | 21.8609 | 0.0000 |
| 3 | 5/18/2026, 5:33:23 AM | 21.8609 | +0.0559 |
| 2 | 5/17/2026, 11:14:08 PM | 21.8050 | 0.0000 |
| 1 | 5/17/2026, 9:00:58 PM | 21.8050 | — |
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/https://www.atlantafed.org/researchhttps://www.clevelandfed.org/our-research/indicators-and-datahttps://data.oecd.org/leadind/consumer-confidence-index-cci.htmhttps://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greedhttps://trends.google.com/Stewards see Palanor Indices tuned to their mandate.
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| 0.00 |
| ▼ 0.080 |
| -0.230 |
| Investment Grade OAS | FRED | 16% | positive | zscore_24m | 0.00 | ▲ 0.010 | -0.157 |
| Reverse Repo Operations | FRED | 12% | positive | pct_change_12m | ▼ 5.23 | ▲ 0.085 | -0.119 |
| Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL) | FRED | 16% | negative | pct_change_12m | ▲ 11045 | ▼ 815 | -0.291 |
| Trade-Weighted Dollar Index | FRED | 10% | positive | zscore_24m | ▼ 0.455 | ▲ 0.573 | -0.050 |