Palanor: Sino Domestic Fragility

What it measures

Sino Domestic Fragility weighs five structural domestic constraints on China's ability to sustain its current projection of regional and global power. A higher reading means the constraints are tightening; a lower reading means they are easing. The instrument does not predict policy. It measures the cost of policy.

Why these components

Each component carries a distinct kind of weight. Youth unemployment is the labor-cohort question — can China absorb the educated workers it produces. Population YoY change is the demographic question — is the labor force itself expanding or contracting. Housing vacancy is the demand question — is domestic consumption picking up the slack as the export model fades. Sanctioned-oil share is the energy-security question — how much of China's marginal barrel is contingent on regimes Beijing does not control. Belt-and-Road distress is the projection question — is China's global financial reach generating returns or generating defaults.

How to read it

0-25 = surplus capacity (room to project). 25-50 = balanced (capacity matches projection). 50-75 = elevated fragility (projection exceeds capacity; show of strength carries cost). 75-100 = strained (the projection is unsustainable on present terms). The current reading sits firmly in the elevated band, with the trajectory unambiguously upward across all five components.

What it does not measure

This is a measure of domestic constraint, not military capacity. China's PLA modernization is real and continues independent of these indicators. A Sino Fragility reading of 100 does not mean China cannot act militarily. It means the cost of acting — domestically — would be carried by an already-strained set of structural constraints.

Components & Weights

Every component, every weight. The 30-day spark shows how the underlying series has moved; the transform column shows how it converts to a comparable scale before weighting. Direction indicates whether rising values raise or lower the index.

Awaiting data means the most recent compute did not have a fresh value for that component. The composite re-normalizes around what is present, so the index reading remains meaningful. The component returns the moment its source publishes.

Historical

24-month history of this index. The composite is recomputed daily; values are stored with timestamps.

References

• FRED — Federal Reserve Economic Data, St. Louis Fed. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/
• Atlanta Fed — Wage Growth Tracker and Sticky-Price CPI. https://www.atlantafed.org/research
• Cleveland Fed — Model-based inflation expectations. https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-research/indicators-and-data
• OECD — Composite Consumer Confidence Indicator. https://data.oecd.org/leadind/consumer-confidence-index-cci.htm
• CNN Business — Fear & Greed Index. https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed
• Google Trends — interest over time. https://trends.google.com/