The Palanor Indices
The instruments Palanor builds to read what the singular series cannot.
Anyone can show you CPI. Anyone can show you the VIX. Palanor builds composites — transparently disclosed, weight-by-weight, with public-source components.
The Palanor Indices
Anyone can show you CPI. Anyone can show you the VIX. Palanor builds composites — transparently disclosed, weight-by-weight, with public-source components.
A composite read on the gap between China's projected strength and the leading domestic indicators of its capacity to sustain it. Five components: youth unemployment, demographic drag, housing oversupply, sanctioned-oil dependence, and Belt-and-Road default count.
Sino Domestic Fragility weighs five structural domestic constraints on China's ability to sustain its current projection of regional and global power. A higher reading means the constraints are tightening; a lower reading means they are easing. The instrument does not predict policy. It measures the cost of policy.
Each component carries a distinct kind of weight. Youth unemployment is the labor-cohort question — can China absorb the educated workers it produces. Population YoY change is the demographic question — is the labor force itself expanding or contracting. Housing vacancy is the demand question — is domestic consumption picking up the slack as the export model fades. Sanctioned-oil share is the energy-security question — how much of China's marginal barrel is contingent on regimes Beijing does not control. Belt-and-Road distress is the projection question — is China's global financial reach generating returns or generating defaults.
0-25 = surplus capacity (room to project). 25-50 = balanced (capacity matches projection). 50-75 = elevated fragility (projection exceeds capacity; show of strength carries cost). 75-100 = strained (the projection is unsustainable on present terms). The current reading sits firmly in the elevated band, with the trajectory unambiguously upward across all five components.
This is a measure of domestic constraint, not military capacity. China's PLA modernization is real and continues independent of these indicators. A Sino Fragility reading of 100 does not mean China cannot act militarily. It means the cost of acting — domestically — would be carried by an already-strained set of structural constraints.
Every component, every weight. The 30-day spark shows how the underlying series has moved; the transform column shows how it converts to a comparable scale before weighting. Direction indicates whether rising values raise or lower the index.
| Component | Source | Weight | Direction | Transform | 30d | 24h | 30d Δ | Now contributing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China youth unemployment (16-24, urban) | NBS | 20% | positive | zscore_24m | — | — | — | -0.286 |
| China population — annual change (millions) | NBS | 20% | negative | zscore_24m | — | — | — | awaiting data |
Numen for the public read:
Palanor reads sino fragility at 64.2 of 100 — modestly above its 24-month neutral. The composite is steady, with the weight of components leaning in one direction. This reading is computed across 4 of 5 components; the remainder are awaiting data.
24-month history of this index. The composite is recomputed daily; values are stored with timestamps.
Y-axis auto-zoomed · data clusters tightly
| # | Computed at | Value | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 7/11/2026, 8:45:37 AM | 64.1515 | 0.0000 |
| 67 | 7/10/2026, 8:45:15 AM | 64.1515 | 0.0000 |
| 66 | 7/9/2026, 8:45:55 AM | 64.1515 | 0.0000 |
| 65 | 7/8/2026, 8:45:55 AM | 64.1515 | 0.0000 |
| 64 | 7/7/2026, 8:45:55 AM | 64.1515 | 0.0000 |
| 63 | 7/6/2026, 8:45:56 AM | 64.1515 | 0.0000 |
| 62 | 7/5/2026, 8:45:55 AM | 64.1515 | 0.0000 |
| 61 | 7/4/2026, 8:45:56 AM | 64.1515 | 0.0000 |
| 60 | 7/3/2026, 8:45:56 AM | 64.1515 | 0.0000 |
| 59 | 7/2/2026, 8:45:55 AM | 64.1515 | 0.0000 |
| 58 | 7/1/2026, 8:45:37 AM | 64.1515 | -2.7242 |
| 57 | 6/30/2026, 8:45:38 AM | 66.8757 | 0.0000 |
| 56 | 6/29/2026, 8:45:52 AM | 66.8757 | 0.0000 |
| 55 | 6/28/2026, 8:45:53 AM | 66.8757 | 0.0000 |
| 54 | 6/27/2026, 8:45:52 AM | 66.8757 | 0.0000 |
| 53 | 6/26/2026, 8:45:52 AM | 66.8757 | 0.0000 |
| 52 | 6/25/2026, 8:45:30 AM | 66.8757 | 0.0000 |
| 51 | 6/24/2026, 8:45:31 AM | 66.8757 | 0.0000 |
| 50 | 6/23/2026, 8:45:06 AM | 66.8757 | 0.0000 |
| 49 | 6/22/2026, 8:45:07 AM | 66.8757 | 0.0000 |
| 48 | 6/21/2026, 8:45:09 AM | 66.8757 | 0.0000 |
| 47 | 6/20/2026, 8:45:15 AM | 66.8757 | 0.0000 |
| 46 | 6/19/2026, 8:45:14 AM | 66.8757 | 0.0000 |
| 45 | 6/18/2026, 8:45:35 AM | 66.8757 | 0.0000 |
| 44 | 6/17/2026, 8:45:25 AM | 66.8757 | 0.0000 |
| 43 | 6/16/2026, 8:45:11 AM | 66.8757 | 0.0000 |
| 42 | 6/15/2026, 8:45:12 AM | 66.8757 | 0.0000 |
| 41 | 6/14/2026, 8:45:43 AM | 66.8757 | 0.0000 |
| 40 | 6/13/2026, 8:45:10 AM | 66.8757 | 0.0000 |
| 39 | 6/12/2026, 8:45:19 AM | 66.8757 | 0.0000 |
| 38 | 6/11/2026, 8:45:25 AM | 66.8757 | 0.0000 |
| 37 | 6/10/2026, 8:45:41 AM | 66.8757 | 0.0000 |
| 36 | 6/9/2026, 8:45:54 AM | 66.8757 | 0.0000 |
| 35 | 6/8/2026, 10:53:06 PM | 66.8757 | 0.0000 |
| 34 | 6/8/2026, 8:45:37 AM | 66.8757 | 0.0000 |
| 33 | 6/7/2026, 8:45:32 AM | 66.8757 | 0.0000 |
| 32 | 6/6/2026, 8:45:32 AM | 66.8757 | 0.0000 |
| 31 | 6/5/2026, 8:45:54 AM | 66.8757 | 0.0000 |
| 30 | 6/4/2026, 7:12:13 PM | 66.8757 | 0.0000 |
| 29 | 6/4/2026, 4:21:23 PM | 66.8757 | 0.0000 |
| 28 | 6/4/2026, 4:20:33 PM | 66.8757 | 0.0000 |
| 27 | 6/4/2026, 4:20:05 PM | 66.8757 | 0.0000 |
| 26 | 6/4/2026, 8:45:41 AM | 66.8757 | 0.0000 |
| 25 | 6/3/2026, 8:45:15 AM | 66.8757 | 0.0000 |
| 24 | 6/2/2026, 8:45:33 AM | 66.8757 | 0.0000 |
| 23 | 6/2/2026, 3:48:34 AM | 66.8757 | 0.0000 |
| 22 | 6/2/2026, 3:13:27 AM | 66.8757 | 0.0000 |
| 21 | 6/2/2026, 3:02:30 AM | 66.8757 | 0.0000 |
| 20 | 6/2/2026, 3:00:51 AM | 66.8757 | 0.0000 |
| 19 | 6/1/2026, 8:45:47 AM | 66.8757 | 0.0000 |
| 18 | 5/31/2026, 8:45:35 AM | 66.8757 | -0.8394 |
| 17 | 5/30/2026, 8:45:28 AM | 67.7151 | 0.0000 |
| 16 | 5/30/2026, 5:04:21 AM | 67.7151 | 0.0000 |
| 15 | 5/30/2026, 4:55:36 AM | 67.7151 | 0.0000 |
| 14 | 5/30/2026, 4:12:36 AM | 67.7151 | 0.0000 |
| 13 | 5/30/2026, 4:12:20 AM | 67.7151 | 0.0000 |
| 12 | 5/29/2026, 8:45:29 AM | 67.7151 | 0.0000 |
| 11 | 5/29/2026, 4:58:26 AM | 67.7151 | 0.0000 |
| 10 | 5/28/2026, 8:45:14 AM | 67.7151 | 0.0000 |
| 9 | 5/27/2026, 8:45:51 AM | 67.7151 | 0.0000 |
| 8 | 5/26/2026, 8:45:27 AM | 67.7151 | 0.0000 |
| 7 | 5/26/2026, 6:48:32 AM | 67.7151 | 0.0000 |
| 6 | 5/26/2026, 6:48:28 AM | 67.7151 | 0.0000 |
| 5 | 5/26/2026, 3:55:00 AM | 67.7151 | 0.0000 |
| 4 | 5/26/2026, 3:54:13 AM | 67.7151 | 0.0000 |
| 3 | 5/26/2026, 3:53:43 AM | 67.7151 | 0.0000 |
| 2 | 5/25/2026, 8:45:27 AM | 67.7151 | -5.6849 |
| 1 | 5/25/2026, 6:00:50 AM | 73.4000 | — |
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/https://www.atlantafed.org/researchhttps://www.clevelandfed.org/our-research/indicators-and-datahttps://data.oecd.org/leadind/consumer-confidence-index-cci.htmhttps://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greedhttps://trends.google.com/Stewards see Palanor Indices tuned to their mandate.
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| China urban housing vacancy rate (%) |
| Goldman Sachs / NBS |
| 20% |
| positive |
| zscore_24m |
| — |
| — |
| — |
| +0.348 |
| China crude imports from Iran + Venezuela (% of total) | Kpler | 20% | positive | zscore_24m | — | — | — | +0.268 |
| Belt and Road borrowers in debt distress | AidData | 20% | positive | level | — | — | — | +0.252 |
Awaiting data means the most recent compute did not have a fresh value for that component. The composite re-normalizes around what is present, so the index reading remains meaningful. The component returns the moment its source publishes.