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Scenarios

Building Your First Scenario

Two paths, same result. How to choose, and how to use each.

Updated 2026-05-17

Scenario Discipline

Why four scenarios is a useful default — and why we no longer enforce it.

Updated 2026-05-31

What Would Make It True

Every active scenario names what would have to be observably true for it to have happened — and where you would read it.

Updated 2026-07-24

How Probability Is Calculated

The math under the score, in plain language.

Updated 2026-05-17

Lattice Canvas

The proprietary signal-mapping canvas — build a scenario as a graph.

Updated 2026-05-17

How Lattice Canvas changes the scoring math

When a scenario was authored in Lattice Canvas, the typed edges between nodes reshape the probability — the topology is part of the math, not just the picture.

Updated 2026-05-17

Reopening a scenario in Lattice Canvas

Scenarios you build in Lattice Canvas keep their graph. Open the canvas from the scenario detail page to refine the topology.

Updated 2026-05-17

Impact Score

The ±100 number on every scenario page — what it measures, how it is computed, how to calibrate.

Updated 2026-05-18

Sharing a Scenario

Three sharing modes — internal, public link, specific people by email — and what each one means.

Updated 2026-05-18

Scenario History

The daily snapshot system — what is recorded, where to find it, and how to read the History Log.

Updated 2026-05-18

Update Narrative Story (Rubric)

How to direct Numen when composing or recomposing the long-form watch for a scenario.

Updated 2026-05-18