Iran deal talk lifts markets while reshoring capex stalls

World equity markets rallied and oil prices dropped after Trump announced the U.S. and Iran are close to signing a memorandum of understanding that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz immediately without tolls. According to a diplomat from a mediating country and a U.S. official speaking to Axios, the framework includes a 60-day ceasefire extension and sanctions relief tied to compliance, with nuclear negotiations to follow. Iran has not confirmed a final decision, according to IRNA.

The market response was immediate. Indian shares opened higher, the dollar steadied, and Brent crude slipped as traders priced in reduced supply risk from the world's most critical oil chokepoint. AP reports that Gulf Arab oil is already reaching market despite Iran's previous stranglehold on the strait, suggesting the geopolitical premium in energy prices was overstated.

Meanwhile, a separate Reuters appeals court ruling extended the block on a challenge to Trump's 10 percent global tariff, keeping the levy in place. The tariff remains operational while legal proceedings continue.

Against this backdrop, GlobeSt reports that U.S. companies are cutting back on factory capital expenditure even as they continue to announce new domestic plants. The gap between rhetoric and spending is widening. Executives talk reshoring in earnings calls, but the capex line items do not support the scale of buildout required to meaningfully onshore manufacturing capacity.

The divergence matters. If the Iran deal holds and energy costs normalize, the macro tailwind for reshoring weakens further. Cheaper oil reduces the relative cost advantage of domestic production over Asia-Pacific logistics. The capex pullback suggests corporate treasury teams already see this.