CF Industries · Earnings release · 0001104659-25-107103

Financial Results

NYSE: CF

Safe harbor statement

All statements in this presentation by CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (together with its subsidiaries, the “Company”), other than those relating to historical

facts, are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements can generally be identified by their use of terms such as “anticipate,” “believe,” “could,”

“estimate,” “expect,” “intend,” “may,” “plan,” “predict,” “project,” “will” or “would” and similar terms and phrases, including references to assumptions.

Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties, many of which

are beyond the Company’s control, which could cause actual results to differ materially from such statements. These statements may include, but are not

limited to, statements about: strategic plans and management’s expectations with respect to the production of low-carbon ammonia, the development of

carbon capture and sequestration projects, the transition to and growth of a hydrogen economy, greenhouse gas reduction targets, projected capital

expenditures, statements about future financial and operating results, and other items described in this presentation. Important factors that could cause

actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements include, among others: the Company’s ability to complete the projects at its

Blue Point Complex, including the construction of a low-carbon ammonia production facility with its joint venture partners and scalable infrastructure on

schedule and on budget or at all; the Company’s ability to fund the capital expenditure needs related to the joint venture at its Blue Point Complex, which

may exceed its current estimates; the cyclical nature of the Company’s business and the impact of global supply and demand on the Company’s selling

prices and operating results; the global commodity nature of the Company’s nitrogen products, the conditions in the global market for nitrogen products,

and the intense global competition from other producers; announced or future tariffs, retaliatory measures, and global trade relations, including the

potential impact of tariffs and retaliatory measures on the price and availability of materials for its capital projects and maintenance; conditions in the

United States, Europe and other agricultural areas, including the influence of governmental policies and technological developments on the demand for its

fertilizer products; the volatility of natural gas prices in North America and globally; weather conditions and the impact of adverse weather events; the

seasonality of the fertilizer business; the impact of changing market conditions on the Company’s forward sales programs; difficulties in securing the

supply and delivery of raw materials or utilities, increases in their costs or delays or interruptions in their delivery; reliance on third party providers of

transportation services and equipment; the Company’s reliance on a limited number of key facilities; risks associated with cybersecurity; acts of terrorism

and regulations to combat terrorism; the significant risks and hazards involved in producing and handling the Company’s products against which the

Company may not be fully insured; risks associated with international operations; the Company’s ability to manage its indebtedness and any additional

indebtedness that may be incurred; risks associated with changes in tax laws and adverse determinations by taxing authorities, including any potential

changes in tax regulations and its qualification for tax credits; risks involving derivatives and the effectiveness of the Company’s risk management and

hedging activities; potential liabilities and expenditures related to environmental, health and safety laws and regulations and permitting requirements;

regulatory restrictions and requirements related to greenhouse gas emissions, including announced or future changes in environmental or climate change

laws; the development and growth of the market for low-carbon ammonia and the risks and uncertainties relating to the development and implementation

of the Company’s low-carbon ammonia projects; risks associated with investments in and expansions of the Company’s business, including unanticipated

adverse consequences and the significant resources that could be required; and failure of technologies to perform, develop or be available as expected,

including the low-carbon ATR ammonia production facility with carbon capture and sequestration technologies being constructed at its Blue Point

Complex. More detailed information about factors that may affect the Company’s performance and could cause actual results to differ materially from those

in any forward-looking statements may be found in CF Industries Holdings, Inc.’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including CF

Industries Holdings, Inc.’s most recent annual and quarterly reports on Form 10-K and Form 10-Q, which are available in the Investor Relations section of

the Company’s web site. It is not possible to predict or identify all risks and uncertainties that might affect the accuracy of our forward-looking statements

and, consequently, our descriptions of such risks and uncertainties should not be considered exhaustive. There is no guarantee that any of the events,

plans or goals anticipated by these forward-looking statements will occur, and if any of the events do occur, there is no guarantee what effect they will have

on our business, results of operations, cash flows, financial condition and future prospects. Forward-looking statements are given only as of the date of this

presentation and the Company disclaims any obligation to update or revise the forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future

events or otherwise, except as required by law.

Note regarding non-GAAP financial measures

The Company reports its financial results in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). Management

believes that EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow, free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA conversion, free cash flow yield and

market cap to free cash flow, which are non-GAAP financial measures, provide additional meaningful information regarding the

Company's performance and financial strength. Non-GAAP financial measures should be viewed in addition to, and not as an

alternative for, the Company’s reported results prepared in accordance with GAAP. In addition, because not all companies use

identical calculations, EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow, free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA conversion, free cash flow yield

and market cap to free cash flow included in this presentation may not be comparable to similarly titled measures of other

companies. Reconciliations of EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow and free cash flow yield to the most directly comparable

GAAP measures are provided in the tables accompanying this presentation.

EBITDA is defined as net earnings attributable to common stockholders plus interest expense (income)—net, income taxes and

depreciation and amortization. Other adjustments include the elimination of the portion of interest income (expense)—net and the

portion of depreciation and amortization that are included in noncontrolling interests, and loan fee amortization that is included in

both interest and amortization. The Company has presented EBITDA because management uses the measure to track performance

and believes that it is frequently used by securities analysts, investors and other interested parties in the evaluation of companies in

the industry.

Adjusted EBITDA is defined as EBITDA adjusted with the selected items as summarized in the tables accompanying this

presentation. The Company has presented adjusted EBITDA because management uses adjusted EBITDA, and believes it is useful

to investors, as a supplemental financial measure in the comparison of year-over-year performance.

Free cash flow is defined as net cash provided by operating activities, as stated in the consolidated statements of cash flows,

reduced by capital expenditures and distributions to noncontrolling interest plus contributions from noncontrolling interests. Free cash

flow to adjusted EBITDA conversion is defined as free cash flow divided by adjusted EBITDA. Free cash flow yield is defined as free

cash flow divided by market value of equity (market cap). Market cap to free cash flow (FCF) is defined as market cap divided by free

cash flow. The Company has presented free cash flow, free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA conversion, free cash flow yield and

market cap to free cash flow because management uses these measures and believes they are useful to investors, as an indication

of the strength of the Company and its ability to generate cash and to evaluate the Company’s cash generation ability relative to its

industry competitors. It should not be inferred that the entire free cash flow amount is available for discretionary expenditures.

4

Industry-leading operational excellence drives cash generation

(1) See appendix for reconciliation of adjusted EBITDA to the most directly comparable GAAP measure

(2) Represents last twelve months share repurchases and dividends paid through September 30, 2025

(3) Includes the cash inflows and outflows associated with the Blue Point joint venture. See appendix for reconciliation of free cash flow to the most directly

comparable GAAP measure

(6) Represents Q3 2025 LTM free cash flow divided by Q3 2025 LTM adjusted EBITDA; see appendix for reconciliations of free cash flow and adjusted EBITDA to

the most directly comparable GAAP measures

Capacity Utilization

12-month Rolling

Average Recordable

Incident Rate(5)

World’s Largest

Ammonia Producer

EBITDA Conversion(6)

Adjusted EBITDA(1)

Adjusted EBITDA(1)

Cash from Operations

Free Cash Flow(3)

Capital Returned to

Shareholders(2)

Share Repurchase

Authorizations(4)

Net Earnings

Net Earnings

5

Highlights and Outlook

Highlights:

Sold cargoes of certified low-carbon ammonia at a premium to customers in Africa and Europe

Completed a nitric acid plant abatement project at Verdigris, OK facility, in October, that is expected to

reduce CO2-e emissions by over 600,000 metric tons per year, on track to reduce CO2-e emissions per

9M 2025 returned ~$1.3 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends

- Completed $3 billion share repurchase authorization in October 2025

- Commenced repurchase authorization of $2 billion expiring in December 2029

9M 2025 Adjusted EBITDA up 20% vs 9M 2024, driven by higher average selling price and sales

volumes, partially offset by higher natural gas costs

G1CF-funded capital expenditures expected to be ~$725 million, of which ~$150 million related to Blue Point

G2Gross ammonia production in 2025 expected to be ~10 million tons

Long-term Outlook:

Global supply-demand balance expected to tighten as demand outpaces global nitrogen capacity growth

Strategic initiatives provide growth from CF current mid-cycle to expected 2030 mid-cycle

- 20% to ~$3B EBITDA

6

On track to deliver 20% mid-cycle EBITDA growth

Current

Mid-Cycle

EBITDA

Monetizing

Decarbonization

Blue Point Expected

Mid-Cycle

$ millions +20%

45Q tax credit generation

Low-carbon price premium

Verdigris N2O abatement

Yazoo City CCS - expected 2028

Announced positive FID

JV formed with JERA & Mitsui

Monetizing decarbonization through structural benefits and CF market opportunities

Commissioning - expected 2029

Begin construction - expected 2026

7

Near-term global nitrogen supply-demand dynamics

(1) China 2025F includes January through October trade statistics based on actuals through September and CF estimates for October, India 2025F and Brazil 2025F include January through

September actuals

Sources: Industry Publications, CRU Urea Market Outlook as of September 2025, CF Analysis

India Urea Imports

MMT

China Urea Exports

Million metric tons

MMT

~4 MMT

Brazil Urea Imports

MMT

Nitrogen Market Outlook Geopolitical and gas-related supply disruptions likely to continue Chinese urea exports ~4 MMT, under current authorized quota India and Brazil import demand expected to be robust in Q4 2025 Russian UAN and urea exports back to pre-war levels Commissioning of new facilities continues to be challenged

MMT

MT

Near-term global nitrogen

market remains constructive

8

Adjusted EBITDA favorable driven by constructive global

nitrogen dynamics

(1) See appendix for reconciliation of adjusted EBITDA to the most directly comparable GAAP measure

8

Adj. EBITDA

Price Volume Realized

Gas Cost

Adj. EBITDA

$ millions

Other

Adj. EBITDA

Price Volume Realized

Gas Cost

Adj. EBITDA

Other

$ millions

9

Strong cash generation with significant return to shareholders

(1) Represents the cash and cash equivalents balance on the Company's Consolidated Balance Sheet at the end of each respective period

(2) Includes $123M of Blue Point JV capex in Q3 2025 and $213M of Blue Point JV capex in 9M 2025

(3) Semi-annual distribution(s) paid to noncontrolling interest (CHS Inc.) in Q3 2025 and 9M 2025

(4) Represents share repurchases and dividends paid in Q3 2025 and 9M 2025 as reflected on the Company’s Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows

Cash

Cash from

Operations

Capex (2) Return to

Shareholders(4)

Other Cash

$(5)

JERA & Mitsui

Blue Point

JV Capital

Contributions

CHS

Distribution(3)

Cash

Cash from

Operations

Capex (2) CHS

Distributions(3)

Return to

Shareholders(4)

Other Cash

JERA & Mitsui

Blue Point

JV Capital

Contributions

$ millions $ millions

LTM Free Cash Flow (millions)

CF Industries’ Free Cash Flow and Shares Outstanding as of Period End

Shares Outstanding (millions)

$0

Continued robust free cash flow participation

End of period shares

outstanding

Cash from Operations

Capital expenditures

Distributions to

noncontrolling interest

Free Cash Flow

(millions) Non-GAAP reconciliation: Cash from Operations to Free Cash Flow

Contributions from

noncontrolling interests

Production Capacity millions (nutrient tons)

Annual Nitrogen Equivalent

Tons per 1,000 Shares Outstanding

Creating value by increasing nitrogen participation per share

Million Shares Outstanding(3)

Increased production capacity 36%

Decreased share count 56%

• UK NH3 closed

• Waggaman acquired

Notes:

• Beginning in 2015 includes incremental 50% interest in CF Fertilisers UK acquired from Yara

• Beginning in 2016 excludes nitrogen equivalent of 1.1 million tons of urea and 0.58 million tons of

UAN under CHS supply agreement and includes expansion project capacity at Donaldsonville

and Port Neal

• Beginning in 2018 includes incremental 15% of Verdigris production to reflect CF’s acquisition of

publicly traded TNH units

• Beginning in 2022 includes decrease in production capacity due to Ince plant closure

• Beginning in 2023 includes decrease in production capacity due to Billingham NH3 plant closure

and additional production capacity from Waggaman ammonia production complex

All N production numbers based on year end figures per 10-K filings

(1) Beginning in 2010 includes capacity from Terra Industries acquisition

(2) Beginning in 2013 includes incremental 34% of Medicine Hat production to

reflect CF acquisition of Viterra's interests

(3) Share count based on end of period common shares outstanding; share count

prior to 2015 based on 5-for-1 split-adjusted shares

Strong FCF metrics underscore a disconnect between market

value and fundamentals

Free Cash Flow Yield(1)

FCF/Adj EBITDA conversion %(3)

(1) Represents annual and Q3 2025 LTM free cash flow divided by market value of equity (market cap) as of December 31st of each year for 2021 – 2024, and as of 9/30/2025

for Q3 2025 LTM. See appendix for reconciliation of free cash flow to the most directly comparable GAAP measure and calculation of market cap. S&P 500, Materials, and

Industrials FCF yield from Bloomberg, calculation method may be different from CF’s

(2) Represents market value of equity (market cap) divided by annual and Q3 2025 LTM free cash flow. Market cap as of December 31st of each year for 2021 – 2024, and as of

9/30/2025 for Q3 2025 LTM. See appendix for reconciliation of free cash flow to the most directly comparable GAAP measure and calculation of market cap. As of October

27, 2025, S&P 500 Materials and Industrials FCF yield from Bloomberg, calculation method may be different from CF’s

(3) Represents annual and Q3 2025 LTM free cash flow divided by annual and Q3 2025 LTM adjusted EBITDA; see appendix for reconciliations of free cash flow and adjusted

EBITDA to the most directly comparable GAAP measures

(4) Includes the cash inflows and outflows associated with the Blue Point joint venture. See appendix for reconciliation of free cash flow to the most directly comparable GAAP

measure

(4)

= 7.9x market cap/FCF(2)

Appendix

Source: ICE, Bloomberg, CF Analysis

(1) Assumes North American production to be 37.2 MMBtu per MT of ammonia for feedstock and fuel and European production assumed at 37.8 MMBtu per MT for feedstock and fuel

with a forward spread HH vs TTF of ~$8/MMBtu

Forward energy spreads remain favorable for low-cost

USD per MMBtu

margin opportunity

JKM (Asia) natural gas TTF (Europe) natural gas Henry Hub (North America) natural gas

CF Industries Adjusted EBITDA sensitivity table

Table illustrates the CF Industries business model across a broad range of

industry conditions

$50/ton urea realized movement implies ~$750M change in Adjusted EBITDA on an annual basis

(1) Based on 2024 sales volumes of approximately 18.9 million product tons, 2024 gas consumption of 346 million MMBtus and 2024 nitrogen product sales price

relationships. Changes in product prices and gas costs are not applied to the CHS minority interest or industrial contracts where CF Industries is naturally hedged

against changes in product prices and gas costs. Excludes EBITDA benefit of UK carbon credit sales

(2) Assumes that a $50 per ton change in urea prices is also applied proportionally to all nitrogen products and is equivalent to a $34.78 per ton change in UAN

price, $36.96 per ton change in AN price, $89.14 per ton change in ammonia price, and $21.20 per ton change in the price of the Other segment

Adjusted EBITDA Sensitivity to Natural Gas and Urea Prices(1)

$ billions CF Realized Natural Gas Cost ($/MMBtu)

CF Realized Urea Price ($/ton)(2)

Demand Growth FID/Under Contruction…Expected European Closures 2029 Supply

Blue Point FID

Projected capacity shortfall; seven additional world-scale(1)

ammonia facilities required to meet demand growth

(1) World-scale plant represent 1.1 MMT of nameplate capacity

(2) CRU demand growth includes traditional and clean energy growth at ~1.5% total CAGR

Sources: Industry Publications, IFA, CF Analysis; capacity additions include CF-assessed firm projects

Estimated 5-year Global Ammonia Demand and Supply Growth (ex. China)

(Million metric tons)

Demand Growth

Supply Growth

Expected European

Closures

shortfall

Additional ammonia

facilities required

Net

Additions

FID/Under Construction

Additions

Supply

Blue

Point

Estimated Blue Point project $3.7B capex phasing

Scalable Infrastructure Phasing ~5% ~35% ~35% ~20% ~5%

CF Blue Point Total $175 $489 $711 $480 $175 $2,030 Construction & production costs and ammonia offtake allocated according to JV equity ownership percentage CF’s estimated capital investment: ~$2B ($1.5B for production facility, $550M scalable infrastructure) CF will operate the production and common facilities with production expected in 2029 Blue Point JV is consolidated into CF’s financials

(1) JERA has a conditional option to reduce its ownership percentage that expires on December 31, 2025. If the specified condition is met, JERA can reduce its

ownership below 35% but not lower than 20%. CF Industries would have the right and obligation to increase its ownership by the same amount that JERA

reduces its ownership

Project Highlights:

Financial results – third quarter and first nine months 2025

Realized derivatives loss (gain) in cost of sales (per MMBtu)(3) — 0.01 (0.01) 0.15

Cost of natural gas used for production in cost of sales

Average daily market price of natural gas at the Henry Hub

(1) See appendix for reconciliations of EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA to the most directly comparable GAAP measures

(2) Includes the cost of natural gas used for production and related transportation that is included in cost of sales during the period under the first-in, first-out inventory cost method

(3) Includes realized gains and losses on natural gas derivatives settled during the period. Excludes unrealized mark-to-market gains and losses on natural gas derivatives

Non-GAAP: reconciliation of net earnings to EBITDA and

adjusted EBITDA

(1) Loan fee amortization is included in both interest expense (income)—net and depreciation and amortization

(2) Represents 40% of Blue Point joint venture costs related to the construction of the low-carbon ammonia production facility at our Blue Point complex, which excludes

the portion attributable to the noncontrolling interests

LTM

Net earnings $

Less: Net earnings attributable to noncontrolling

interests

Net earnings attributable to common

stockholders

Less other adjustments:

Interest income (expense)—net in

noncontrolling interest

Depreciation and amortization in noncontrolling

interest

Loan fee amortization(1)

EBITDA

Unrealized net mark-to-market (gain) loss on

natural gas derivatives

(Gain) loss on foreign currency transactions

Less: Gain on foreign currency transactions in

noncontrolling interest

Blue Point joint venture construction costs(2)

Impact of employee benefit plan policy change

Loss on sale of Ince facility

Integration costs

Total adjustments

Adjusted EBITDA

$

$

—

—

—

—

—

—

4

—

Non-GAAP: reconciliation of net earnings to EBITDA and

adjusted EBITDA, continued

Less: Net earnings attributable to noncontrolling interest (259) (313) (591) (343)

Less other adjustments:

Depreciation and amortization in noncontrolling interest (91) (85) (87) (95)

Loan fee amortization(1) (4) (4) (4) (4)

Unrealized net mark-to-market (gain) loss on natural gas

derivatives

Loss on foreign currency transactions, including intercompany

loans

Impact of employee benefit plan policy change

U.K. goodwill impairment

U.K. long-lived and intangible asset impairment

U.K. operations restructuring — 10 19 —

Acquisition and integration costs 4 39 — —

Impairment of equity method investment in PLNL — 43 — —

Unrealized gain on embedded derivative liability — — (14) —

Pension settlement loss and curtailments gains—net — — 17 —

Loss on debt extinguishment — — 8 19

(1) Loan fee amortization is included in both interest (income) expense—net and depreciation and amortization

Non-GAAP: reconciliation of cash from operations to free

cash flow, free cash flow yield and free cash flow to adjusted

EBITDA conversion

Contributions from noncontrolling interests 291 — — — —

(1) Represents annual and Q3 2025 LTM free cash flow divided by market value of equity (market cap) as of December 31st for each year and September 30th for Q3 2025 LTM

(2) Source: FactSet

(3) Represents annual and Q3 2025 LTM free cash flow divided by annual and Q3 2025 LTM adjusted EBITDA

(4) Represents market cap divided by annual and Q3 2025 LTM free cash flow. Market cap as of December 31st of each year for 2021 – 2024, and as of 9/30/2025 for Q3