Treasury Curve · 2s10s Spread

## What this measures

The 10-year Treasury par yield minus the 2-year par yield, in percentage points, for every business day since 1990.

## Why it matters

The classic recession curve. Inversion, then re-steepening, has preceded every US recession since the 1970s — the re-steepening is the part people forget to watch.

## How to read it

A positive spread means the 10-year yield exceeds the 2-year; a negative spread (inversion) means short rates are higher than long rates. Narrowing toward or below zero is flattening or inversion; widening back above zero is re-steepening. Compare the current level to zero and to its own history to place the curve in the inversion–steepening cycle.

## What it does not say

It records the yield differential. It does not say when a recession will begin, how deep it will be, or whether this cycle follows the historical pattern. It is bond-market pricing, not an economic forecast.

## Source

U.S. Department of the Treasury, Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates (home.treasury.gov), read directly from Treasury's published file each business day. A work of the U.S. Government, in the public domain (17 U.S.C. §105). Palanor computes the spread (10 Yr − 2 Yr). FRED's T10Y2Y is computed from the same Treasury yields.